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MARKET COMMENTARY

South Africa

The Top 40 index added 0.46% to close at 91,520.8 points, while the All Share index closed 0.47% higher to reach 99,165.1 points. The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is expected to announce a 25 basis-point repo rate cut to 7.25 percent this Thursday, following broadly anticipated market consensus. Recent data showed M3 money supply growth accelerated to 7.27 percent in June (versus 6.86 percent in May), while credit growth remained stable at 4.98 percent month‑on‑month. Political headwinds are intensifying, as U.S. elite concern over South Africa’s affirmative action policies complicates trade negotiations just days ahead of a 30 percent tariff on exports to the U.S. While SARB delivers modest monetary stimulus, policy sensitivity is heightened by social and geopolitical volatility.

 Europe

European equities advanced on Tuesday with financials and aerospace & defence outperforming. The STOXX 600 gained 0.3 percent, while banks rose 1.7 percent to record levels unseen since 2008. Aerospace & defence firms rallied 2.2 percent following the announcement of zero-for-zero tariffs on aircraft under a new U.S.–EU trade agreement, boosting Airbus and Safran shares. In contrast, Danish equities declined sharply as Novo Nordisk surged 23 percent after issuing a profit warning—a major one-day fall in market capitalisation. EssilorLuxottica and Philips also saw strong moves post-trade deal repricing and lowered tariff impact estimates. 

United States

U.S. stocks slipped as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq retreated from record levels amid mixed earnings from large-cap names. UnitedHealth, Boeing and Merck underperformed post-results, while UPS shares plunged over 10 percent after withholding annual forecasts. Nearly 200 S&P components have now reported earnings, beating consensus by 6.4 percent. Consumer confidence unexpectedly rose to 97.2 in July, but JOLTS data signalled cooling labour market momentum. Investors await Wednesday’s Fed policy statement and future guidance, with megacap reports from Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Apple expected to heavily influence sentiment.

Asia

Asian equities rose modestly as markets remained cautious ahead of key U.S.–China negotiations and the Federal Reserve meeting. Trade talks concluded without decisive breakthroughs, sustaining uncertainty. The Bank of Japan is widely expected to hold rates, and markets await commentary for guidance on timing and magnitude of potential future hikes. Australia’s Q2 CPI print showed the slowest consumer price growth in over four years, supporting bets on an imminent RBA rate cut. Separately, Foxconn (Hon Hai) announced a trading suspension on 30 July ahead of a material corporate announcement.

Currencies

Currency markets have reacted to the new U.S.–EU trade agreement: the euro saw its sharpest two‑day fall in almost three years, sliding to US $1.1522. The pound weakened to a ten‑week low around US $1.3316 before recovering to US $1.3357, pressured by inflation concerns and expectations of an earlier Bank of England rate cut than in the eurozone. In contrast, sterling received modest support from a relative tariff advantage under the U.S.–EU deal. Dollar strength continues amid reduced trade uncertainty and strong U.S. data.

Commodities

Oil prices are rebounding sharply as geopolitical risk re-emerges: Brent crude climbed 3.5 percent to US $72.51/barrel after U.S. threats of sanctions targeting Russian oil buyers within ten days. Market anxiety around supply disruptions, especially to China and India, is reintroducing risk premium despite still-ample capacity elsewhere. Meanwhile, copper surged on the looming imposition of a 50 percent U.S. import tariff, scheduled for 1 August, prompting front-loading of shipments and record price volatility. Cocoa remains elevated, with West African weather-related production shortfalls continuing to pressure futures near recent highs. Gold has softened slightly as appetite for safe-havens eased. 

LOCAL COMMENTARY

Kumba Iron Ore Limited (KIO) +4.80%

Kumba reported a resilient H1 2025 performance, underpinned by disciplined capital allocation and operational stability, including more than nine years of fatality-free production at Sishen. The group achieved an average realised FOB export price of US$91/wmt, 8% above the benchmark, supported by R661 million in cost savings and a robust EBITDA margin of 46%. Attributable free cash flow reached R7.9 billion, driving a closing net cash position of R16.1 billion and a return on capital employed of 48%. The interim cash dividend was declared at R16.60 per share. The group continued to advance its ESG agenda, with energy consumption reduced by 9% to 3.513 million GJ, women comprising 30% of the workforce, and R25.9 billion in shared value created. Kumba remains focused on value delivery through operational efficiency and responsible capital management.

Boxer Retail Limited (BOX) +4.61%

Boxer delivered strong trading performance for the 17 weeks to 29 June 2025, with turnover up 12.1% and like-for-like growth of 3.9%, showing momentum against the 9.0% and 3.7% growth rates respectively reported for H2 FY25 (pro forma 52-week basis). Market share gains continued, aided by stabilisation following a high base in early FY25. Internal food inflation, reported on a volume-held-constant basis to strip out promotional and mix distortions, turned mildly negative at -0.6%, down from 0.3% in FY25. Historical volume-held-constant inflation for FY22–FY24 was 4.2%, 10.1%, and 3.1% respectively. Despite consumer pressure and deflationary headwinds, Boxer reaffirmed its low-teens FY26 turnover growth target and remains on track with store rollout, having opened seven Superstores and ten liquor outlets to date. The company maintains confidence in gross margin delivery, despite ongoing challenges posed by a low inflation environment. The figures are unaudited and based on management accounts.

Shaftesbury Capital PLC (SHC) +3.58%

Shaftesbury Capital delivered a robust set of H1 2025 results, with strong growth across key metrics including rents, earnings, dividend, portfolio valuation and EPRA NTA. The Company completed 193 leasing transactions totalling £19.2m in contracted rent, 9.0% ahead of December 2024 ERVs and 16.3% above previous passing rents. Portfolio occupancy remains high, with only 2.4% of ERV available to let, supported by sustained footfall and resilient consumer activity across its prime West End holdings. Underlying earnings rose 16% to 2.2p per share, underpinning a 12% uplift in the interim dividend to 1.9p. The portfolio valuation increased 3.1% to £5.2bn, driven by a 2.9% like-for-like uplift in ERV to £261m and a stable equivalent yield of 4.46%. EPRA NTA advanced 3.3% to 206.8p. The period also saw £71m of capex and acquisitions targeting asset management and rental growth opportunities, alongside the April completion of its £2.7bn long-term Covent Garden partnership with Norges Bank Investment Management. With low leverage and ample liquidity, the Company enters H2 in a strong position to capitalise on further opportunities in London’s West End.

INTERNTIONAL COMMENTARY

Visa Inc. (V) -1.18%

Visa exceeded expectations in Q3, with net revenue up 14% to $10.17bn and adjusted EPS rising to $2.98, both ahead of analyst forecasts. Global payments volume grew 8% on a constant dollar basis, underlining strong consumer and business card spending despite macroeconomic softness. However, the firm maintained its full-year guidance of low single-digit net revenue growth for FY2025, prompting a nearly 2% dip in shares during after-hours trading. While top-line performance remains solid, market reaction suggests investors are seeking clearer signals of acceleration in Visa’s forward outlook.

Boeing Company (BA) -4.37%

Boeing reported a narrower-than-expected Q2 core loss of $1.24 per share, versus $2.90 a year ago, as commercial jet deliveries surged. The planemaker delivered 285 aircraft in H1, up from 175 a year prior, and improved free cash flow usage to -$200m, well ahead of consensus estimates. Revenue rose 35% to $22.75bn. The company increased 787 production in Charleston and expects to deliver over a dozen delayed units amid easing supply-chain issues. However, 737 MAX 7 and 10 certifications have been pushed to 2026 due to ongoing issues with engine de-icing systems. Boeing also reported 625 net aircraft orders year-to-date, underscoring sustained demand despite regulatory and production headwinds.

Canal+ SA (YA3) +8.20%

French pay-TV operator Canal+ reported a 3.3% decline in H1 revenue to €3.09bn, largely anticipated due to the conclusion of a UEFA sublicensing deal and the absence of a one-off gain seen in 2024. Despite this, free cash flow rose sharply to €370m from €128m year-on-year, supported by tax payment normalisation and cash optimisation. Adjusted EBIT dropped 21.6% to €246m, though the company reaffirmed its full-year earnings target of €515m. CEO Maxime Saada highlighted the group’s strength in blending proprietary content, live sport and third-party streaming, citing a landmark extension of its Netflix partnership into 24 French-speaking African countries. The decline of 353,000 wholesale subscribers was partly offset by modest 0.2% growth in direct-to-consumer users, even after non-renewal of Ligue 1 and Disney contracts.

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Research Team
Media, Sasfin Wealth

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