Ryanair lifts profit outlook on strong January bookings as fare recovery gathers pace

South African Market Summary

South African equities surged, with the JSE All Share gaining 1.87% to close at 124,563.48 and the Top 40 rising 2.06% to 116,709.21, both record highs, as firmer metal prices and rand strength lifted resource shares. Improving fiscal signals added support, with National Treasury indicating debt stabilisation relative to GDP and a third consecutive primary surplus. Expectations of a formal fiscal anchor and sustained consolidation have compressed bond yields and strengthened the currency, contributing to a recent ratings upgrade and improved medium-term sovereign risk perceptions.

European Market Summary

European equities closed modestly higher, led by financials ahead of a key week for bank earnings, with the STOXX 600 reaching a one-week high. Investors balanced supportive earnings expectations against lingering geopolitical and trade-policy uncertainty. Sector performance was mixed, as gains in banks offset weakness in aerospace, defence and selected consumer names. Corporate updates from Ryanair and Danone disappointed, while Airbus flagged rising geopolitical risks. Puma rebounded sharply, highlighting ongoing stock-specific volatility. Broader sentiment remains cautious as markets assess tariff risks and the durability of the regional earnings cycle.

US Market Summary

US equities extended gains, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posting a fourth straight advance, supported by strength in mega-cap technology stocks ahead of major earnings releases. Investors are focused on whether AI-driven capital expenditure is translating into measurable revenue and margin gains, with valuations leaving limited room for disappointment. Earnings breadth has been constructive so far, but guidance remains pivotal. Attention also turns to the Federal Reserve meeting, where rates are expected to remain unchanged, though commentary on the policy path and institutional independence will be closely scrutinised.

Asian Market Summary

Asian markets navigated a mix of policy and trade developments. South Korean equities steadied after tariff threats from the US reignited trade tensions, while Chinese industrial profits returned to growth as authorities sought to curb destructive price competition and stabilise margins in key sectors. Export resilience continues to offset weak domestic demand, though deflationary pressures persist. In Pakistan, the central bank unexpectedly held rates steady, prioritising price stability over further easing despite moderating inflation. Regional sentiment reflects ongoing sensitivity to external demand trends and policy credibility.

Currency Market Summary

The rand strengthened to multi-year highs against the dollar, supported by elevated precious metal prices and improving perceptions of South Africa’s fiscal trajectory. The US dollar weakened broadly, pressured by domestic political uncertainty, fiscal risks and shifting expectations around policy direction. The yen held firm on intervention speculation and safe-haven demand. Currency markets are increasingly sensitive to policy credibility, geopolitical developments and relative growth expectations, with volatility elevated as investors reassess assumptions around dollar stability and the global rate cycle.

Commodity Market Summary

Oil prices softened despite significant US production disruptions from severe winter weather, as traders weighed refinery outages and demand concerns against ample global supply. Geopolitical risk remains elevated, with increased US naval presence in the Middle East and OPEC+ expected to maintain output restraint. Gold advanced to fresh record levels on sustained safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and currency volatility, with silver also firm. Commodity markets remain driven by supply-side shocks, policy decisions and investor hedging activity rather than a clear shift in underlying demand fundamentals.

Cashbuild Limited (CSB) -6.88%

Cashbuild reported a muted second-quarter FY2026 performance, with Group revenue rising 1% year on year, supported by contributions from 15 new stores, while like-for-like revenue from 309 existing stores declined 2%. Transaction volumes increased 2%, although selling price inflation remained subdued at 0.8%. For the half year, revenue grew 3%, reflecting solid first-quarter momentum. South Africa remained the core driver, while other African operations were mixed. The Group ended the period with 322 stores after selective openings, refurbishments, disposals and the consolidation of Amper Alles.

Pan African Resources Plc (PAN) +4.82%

Pan African Resources delivered a strong H1FY26 operational performance, with gold production rising 51% to 128,296oz, driven by improved output at Evander, steady contributions from Barberton and Elikhulu, and ramp-up at Tennant Mines. The balance sheet de-geared materially, with net debt reduced by over 65%, supporting a proposed interim dividend of 12 South African cents per share. While all-in sustaining costs were elevated due to currency and once-off factors, higher second-half volumes are expected to improve unit costs, with multiple tailings and growth projects underpinning longer-term production visibility.

Spear REIT Limited (SEA) -1.01%

Spear REIT reported solid year-to-date performance to December 2025, with distributable income per share up 5.7% and revenue growth above 20%, supported by acquisitions and strong letting momentum in the Western Cape-focused portfolio. Portfolio occupancy improved to 97.2%, with industrial assets remaining the core earnings driver and retail and office vacancies trending lower. Balance sheet metrics remained sound, with loan-to-value at 25% and improved interest cover. Management raised full-year distributable income per share guidance to 5–6% growth, underpinned by rental traction, solar income expansion and easing interest rates.

Ryanair Holdings Plc (RYA) -2.33%

Ryanair signalled improving pricing momentum, nudging up its outlook for average fare growth after reporting one of its strongest-ever January booking periods. Management now guides full-year pre-exceptional after-tax profit of €2.13–€2.23 billion, roughly one-third above last year, supported by a recovery in fares after prior declines. However, executives cautioned that fare increases into the new financial year are likely to remain in the low single digits. The airline also flagged potential industrial action in Germany and Belgium, while indicating improved aircraft delivery reliability from Boeing.

Nucor Corporation (NUE) -2.20%

Nucor reported fourth-quarter results below expectations, as higher input costs and lagged contract pricing weighed on margins in its core steel segments despite firmer US spot prices. Earnings of $1.73 per share and revenue of $7.69 billion both missed consensus forecasts. Management noted that while tariffs are supporting domestic pricing, the benefit is delayed in long-term contracts reset at earlier price levels. Looking ahead, the group highlighted solid backlogs and supportive federal industrial policy, signalling confidence in demand conditions across key end markets into 2026.

Brown & Brown Inc. (BRO) +0.56%

Brown & Brown (BRO) delivered higher fourth-quarter adjusted earnings, with profit per share rising to $0.93 as commissions and fee income jumped 36%, lifting total revenue to $1.61 billion. Growth was supported by sustained demand for insurance cover amid elevated climate and cyber risks, alongside modestly higher investment income. However, shares fell as organic revenue slipped year on year, signalling a moderation in underlying growth despite solid acquisition and pricing contributions. Results across peers also point to resilient industry fundamentals supported by firm underwriting conditions.

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