Nvidia beats on strong AI demand, guides ahead as hyperscaler spend drives outlook

South African Market Summary

The JSE All Share index rose 1.26% to 126,742.36, with the Top 40 advancing 1.47% to 118,702.69, supported by improved fiscal signalling. National Treasury confirmed plans to legislate a principles-based “fiscal anchor” in the forthcoming medium-term budget to strengthen long-term debt sustainability, as South Africa tracks a third consecutive primary surplus. Attention now turns to upcoming domestic releases, including PPI, money supply, private credit, trade and budget balance data. Valterra Platinum Limited outperformed after declaring a R45 per share dividend, materially ahead of consensus, as net income more than doubled to R15.4 billion.                                                         

European Market Summary

European equities advanced to record levels, with the STOXX 600 rising 0.7% to 633.47, supported by a rebound in financials after HSBC lifted a key lending target and easing concerns around AI-driven disruption. The FTSE 100 gained 1.18% to a fresh high of 10,806.41, with strength in miners and banks, while the FTSE 250 added 0.5%. UK inflation expectations declined notably, signalling improving price stability. However, macro signals remained mixed, as German consumer sentiment deteriorated unexpectedly, highlighting ongoing pressure on household spending amid geopolitical uncertainty and policy concerns.

US Market Summary

Wall Street closed higher, extending a tech-led rally as investor focus shifted from AI-related cost concerns to the technology’s long-term growth potential. The Nasdaq outperformed, supported by strength in semiconductor stocks, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones also advanced, with markets reaching two-week highs. Nvidia’s better-than-expected results reinforced positive sentiment around AI infrastructure demand. Market breadth was constructive, with advancing stocks outpacing decliners, while new highs on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq signalled underlying momentum. Trading volumes were lighter than recent averages, indicating a degree of caution despite improving sentiment.

Asian Market Summary

Asia-Pacific markets traded firmer, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 reaching another record high amid momentum linked to the “Takaichi trade” and positive spillover from a tech-led Wall Street rally. In South Korea, the central bank held rates at 2.50% and signalled a prolonged pause, supported by resilient exports and stable inflation, while introducing enhanced forward guidance aligned with global central bank practices. Corporate developments were mixed, with Qantas reporting record earnings but seeing shares fall sharply on weaker international profitability. Broader sentiment remains supported by technology demand, although travel and policy dynamics present emerging headwinds.

Currency Market Summary

Currency markets reflected a softer dollar bias, with the rand strengthening following the presentation of South Africa’s 2026 national budget, signalling improved fiscal clarity. Sterling edged higher against both the dollar and euro, supported by interest rate differentials and stable market sentiment. The dollar index eased to 97.592, extending prior-session losses as stronger-than-expected Nvidia earnings lifted global risk appetite. However, policy uncertainty remains elevated, with markets awaiting clarity on U.S. tariff measures following the Supreme Court’s recent ruling, reinforcing a cautious near-term outlook for the greenback.

Commodity Market Summary

Oil prices traded near seven-month highs, supported by geopolitical risk premia as markets assessed ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations and the potential for supply disruptions. Gains were partially offset by a build in U.S. crude inventories and expectations that OPEC+ may raise output by 137,000 barrels per day ahead of peak seasonal demand. Saudi Arabia’s contingency plans to increase production further underscore efforts to stabilise supply. Meanwhile, gold prices edged higher, benefiting from a softer dollar and sustained safe-haven demand amid uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy and broader geopolitical tensions.

Valterra Platinum Limited (VAL) +10.30%

Valterra Platinum reported a strong full-year performance for 2025, underpinned by improved operational delivery and robust earnings growth. Revenue increased 7% to R116.3 billion, while adjusted EBITDA surged 68% to R33.4 billion, lifting the mining EBITDA margin to 38%. Headline earnings per share nearly doubled to 63.48 cents, reflecting enhanced profitability. All-in sustaining costs remained stable at $987/3E oz, with safety improving as TRIFR declined 11%. Net cash decreased to R11.5 billion, while total dividends fell 37% to R12.0 billion, signalling a more conservative capital return profile despite strong underlying performance.

Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (ANH) -2.47%

Anheuser-Busch InBev disclosed that BlackRock, Inc. filed three transparency notifications between 19 and 23 February 2026 under Belgium’s Law of 2 May 2007. BlackRock’s holding initially crossed above the 3% voting-rights threshold to 3.02% on 18 February following share acquisitions, rising to 3.13% total voting rights on 19 February. Subsequently, disposals reduced the stake below the 3% threshold to 2.91% (3.02% total voting rights) on 20 February. The notifications reflect routine portfolio adjustments rather than a strategic shift, though threshold movements remain relevant for governance monitoring and shareholder register analysis.

Bid Corporation Limited (BID) -3.58%

Bidcorp reported a resilient interim performance for the half year ended 31 December 2025, navigating a challenging global trading backdrop with consistent growth across key metrics. Revenue increased 7.1% to R126.3 billion (5.9% in constant currency), while trading profit rose 8.1% to R6.8 billion. HEPS advanced 8.5% to 1,325.2 cents, with EPS up 16.6%, supported by operational leverage and improved efficiencies. Cash generation strengthened materially, with operating cash flow rising 27.2% to R6.8 billion. Reflecting confidence in earnings quality, the group declared an interim dividend of 615.0 cents per share, up 9.8%.

Motus Holdings Limited (MTH) -4.36%

Motus delivered a solid interim performance for the six months ended 31 December 2025, supported by improved profitability, stronger cash generation and a more efficient capital structure. Revenue increased 3% to R57.7 billion, while operating profit rose 8% to R2.74 billion. Profit before tax advanced 21%, with attributable earnings up 20%, driving EPS and HEPS growth of 19%. Net finance costs declined 23%, reflecting balance sheet optimisation. Operating cash flow improved significantly to R1.94 billion, while leverage metrics strengthened. The group declared a 25% higher interim dividend of 300 cents per share, signalling confidence in earnings sustainability.

AECI Limited (AFE) +2.48%

AECI reported a mixed but strategically improved full-year outcome for 2025, with operational discipline and balance sheet repair offsetting softer top-line momentum. Revenue from continuing operations declined 4% to R32.2 billion, while EBITDA increased 12% to R3.41 billion, reflecting margin enhancement initiatives. Profit from continuing operations eased 1%, though EPS rose 36% to 357 cents and HEPS increased 53% to 1,098 cents, supported by portfolio optimisation. Safety performance improved materially, with TRIR down 35%. Net debt reduced sharply to R465 million, underpinning a total dividend of 228 cents per share.

Pirelli & Company S.p.A (PIRC) -0.03%

Pirelli guided to broadly stable 2026 performance, with revenue expected between €6.7 billion and €6.9 billion, in line with prior-year levels, and adjusted EBIT margins forecast to improve modestly to around 16%. The group proposed a dividend of €0.34 per share, including a €0.10 extraordinary component, supported by stronger results and reduced leverage. However, ongoing governance tensions between major shareholders Sinochem and Camfin continue to weigh on strategic flexibility, particularly regarding U.S. expansion. The board’s rejection of restructuring proposals linked to U.S. regulatory requirements underscores persistent oversight challenges, with potential for further Italian government involvement, representing a key risk to execution and medium-term growth.

Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) +1.41%

Nvidia reported strong January-quarter results, with revenue rising 94% to $68.13 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.62, both ahead of expectations, supported by sustained demand for AI processors. The group guided first-quarter revenue to $78 billion (±2%), exceeding consensus, underpinned by continued hyperscaler investment in data centre infrastructure. Management reaffirmed its commitment to reinvesting cash flows into the AI ecosystem rather than prioritising shareholder returns. While supply constraints at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company remain a consideration, Nvidia indicated sufficient capacity to meet near-term demand. Investor reaction was muted amid elevated expectations and rising customer concentration, with two clients accounting for 36% of sales. Strategic exposure to export controls on China remains a moderating factor.

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