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market commentary

South Africa

The Top 40 added 1.01% on Friday to reach 95,066.9 points, while the All Share index gained 0.96% to close at 102,723.5 points. Policy developments remain in focus after government confirmed it will open Transnet’s freight rail network to private operators to address inefficiencies from equipment shortages, cable theft and vandalism. In corporates, Gold Fields tripled interim profit and lifted its dividend, supported by record bullion prices and higher production. Investor attention this week will centre on domestic macro releases including the leading business cycle indicator, producer inflation, money supply, private sector credit, as well as trade and budget balances.

Europe

European equities closed at five-month highs, with the STOXX 600 up 0.4% and near record levels, supported by Fed rate-cut signals. Miners advanced 1.6% as copper prices rebounded, while autos and travel and leisure rose over 1%. UBS, however, remains cautious, cutting eurozone earnings growth forecasts to -3% for 2025. Markets await further clarity on geopolitical risks after optimism over Russia–Ukraine talks faded. German Q2 GDP was revised lower to -0.3%, signalling persistent growth headwinds despite improving market sentiment.

United States

Wall Street rallied, with the Dow closing at a record high as Powell hinted at a September rate cut, with futures pricing in nearly a 90% probability. The S&P 500 rose, snapping a five-day losing streak, led by consumer discretionary. Tech remained under pressure, with the Nasdaq ending the week lower. UBS raised its S&P 500 year-end target again, citing resilient earnings and easing trade frictions. Intel gained 5.5% on reports of a potential US government stake, while Coinbase rose 6.5% alongside crypto-linked equities.

Asia

Japan’s Ministry of Finance plans to raise the assumed long-term government bond rate to 2.6% for FY26/27, the highest in 17 years, implying higher debt-servicing costs. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda signalled growing wage pressures and tighter labour markets could justify resuming rate hikes later this year, reinforcing expectations of a gradual normalisation despite external risks from US tariffs.

Currencies

The rand strengthened on Fed-driven dollar weakness and firmer bullion. Sterling steadied after recent losses, while the Turkish lira faces renewed adjustment pressures as Ankara ended its costly FX-protected deposit scheme, a move to unwind unorthodox policies. The US dollar attempted to recover on Monday from a four-week low against the euro after a dovish pivot from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sent it plummeting more than 1%.

Commodities

Gold prices rebounded, buoyed by heightened Fed rate-cut expectations after Powell’s Jackson Hole comments, balancing labour market risks against inflation concerns. Oil steadied but posted weekly gains, supported by supply disruption risks as Ukraine struck Russian energy infrastructure. Prospects of a Trump-brokered Putin–Zelenskiy summit added further uncertainty.

local commentary

Adcock Ingram Holdings Limited (AIP) +1.11%

Adcock Ingram reported a resilient FY25 performance, with revenue up 1% to R9.76bn and headline EPS 1% higher at 625.6c. A strong H2, supported by OTC and consumer health demand, drove trading profit 30% higher than H1 and HEPS 36% higher. Final dividend of 165c lifted the annual payout 2% to 280c. Segmentally, Consumer (+6%) and Hospital (+7%) offset weaker Prescription (-3%). The Group announced a strategic transaction with NATCO Pharma, which will acquire non-Bidvest shares, delisting Adcock and enhancing scale, product capabilities and supply chain resilience. B-BBEE Level 1 status underscores continued transformation progress.

Gold Fields Limited (GFI) -0.57%

Gold Fields delivered a sharp rise in H1 FY25 earnings, with attributable profit surging to US$1.03bn (US$1.15/share) from US$389m (US$0.43/share) in H1 FY24, supported by higher production, stronger realised gold prices and improved cost discipline. Group production rose 24% y/y to 1.14Moz, while revenue per ounce increased to US$3,089 from US$2,211. Adjusted free cash flow reached US$952m, versus an outflow a year earlier, strengthening balance sheet metrics as net debt/EBITDA fell to 0.37x. AISC improved to US$1,682/oz. The interim dividend was more than doubled to 700c/share, underscoring robust cash generation and management’s confidence in sustainable shareholder returns.

Grindrod Limited (GND) +10.89%

Grindrod delivered a strong H1 FY25 recovery, underpinned by improved Port and Terminals performance in Q2. Core EBITDA was R1.0bn and core headline earnings R0.6bn, with cash conversion at 80%. Group headline earnings rose 23% y/y to R592m, while basic earnings more than tripled to R1.47bn, reflecting one-off gains from the Matola acquisition and asset disposals. Port volumes reached 6.5mt, while drybulk terminal throughput totalled 7.9mt, with record monthly volumes at Matola in May. Logistics remained subdued due to softer container and graphite volumes. A combined interim and special dividend of 55.3c/share underscores robust cash generation and balance sheet discipline.

Hulamin Limited (HLM) -13.93%

Hulamin faced a challenging H1 FY25, with profitability pressured by a stronger rand, elevated energy costs and pricing pressure in the local can-end market, despite higher sales volumes and improved mix. Normalised HEPS from continuing operations is expected at 23–29c, down 42–54% y/y, while reported HEPS will decline 78–82% to 14–17c. The Group reported a R187m adverse swing in metal price lag and recognised a R69m impairment on Extrusions, now classified as held-for-sale. The Containers division ceased operations in June, while disposal negotiations for Extrusions continue, aligning with management’s strategy to streamline the portfolio and improve returns.

international commentary

Zoom Communications Inc. (ZM) +12.71%

Zoom raised its annual revenue and profit forecasts, driven by hybrid work demand and AI integration across its products, which lifted shares 4.5% in extended trading. The company is broadening its portfolio with agentic AI solutions such as Virtual Agent 2.0 and AI Companion, enabling automation of complex customer tasks and extending capabilities to third-party platforms. Q2 revenue of $1.22bn exceeded estimates, with adjusted EPS of $1.53 also beating forecasts. For FY26, Zoom expects revenue of $4.83–4.84bn and adjusted EPS of $5.81–5.84, reflecting confidence in sustained adoption of AI-driven productivity tools.

Intuit Inc. (INTU) -5.03%

Intuit guided to softer-than-expected Q1 revenue growth, citing weakness in its Mailchimp marketing platform, sending shares down 6% post-market. Mailchimp remains a near-term drag, though management anticipates improvements by year-end. Intuit has completed its shift from QuickBooks Desktop licences to subscriptions, with slower growth expected as price increases moderate. The company is embedding AI agents across QuickBooks and has introduced new price adjustments with limited attrition impact. FY26 revenue is forecast at $21–21.19bn with adjusted EPS of $22.98–23.18, broadly in line with consensus. Q4 results beat expectations, while the board authorised an additional $3.2bn share repurchase.

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