JPMorgan guides strong Q1 revenue growth on trading momentum

South African Market Summary

South African equities strengthened, with the JSE All Share rising 1.65% to 125,052.12 and the Top 40 gaining 1.75% to 116,833.44, supported by improved risk sentiment. Sasol reported a 34% decline in interim HEPS to R9.27, reflecting weaker oil and chemical prices. In the automotive sector, WeBuyCars reaffirmed its strategic focus on the used vehicle market, opting against expansion into new car sales despite improving demand. Attention now turns to the 2026 national budget, where investors will assess fiscal discipline, debt stabilisation and potential tax implications.

European Market Summary

European markets retreated as renewed uncertainty around U.S. trade policy weighed on sentiment following the announcement of new blanket tariffs. The STOXX 600 declined 0.5%, while Germany’s export-sensitive DAX fell 1.1%, reflecting heightened sensitivity to global trade risks. The UK’s FTSE 100 closed flat, with stock-specific weakness in Johnson Matthey following a reduced sale price for its catalyst unit. Despite this, German economic indicators showed tentative improvement, with the Ifo business climate index rising to 88.6 in February, signalling gradually improving corporate sentiment and potential stabilisation in Europe’s largest economy.

US Market Summary

Wall Street closed sharply lower, with all three major indices declining more than 1% as risk sentiment deteriorated amid heightened uncertainty. Investor concerns centred on potential disruption from artificial intelligence developments, compounded by renewed volatility linked to U.S. trade policy rhetoric. External disruptions, including severe winter storms across the Northeast, added to near-term economic uncertainty by significantly impacting travel activity. As the fourth-quarter earnings season nears completion, market focus shifts to key remaining releases, notably Nvidia, with results expected to provide further insight into AI-driven demand trends.

Asian Market Summary

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed as investors assessed renewed U.S. tariff threats alongside concerns around artificial intelligence-driven disruption in the software sector. Japan sought favourable treatment under the evolving U.S. tariff framework, reaffirming its commitment to existing bilateral trade agreements. In China, authorities held benchmark lending rates unchanged for a ninth consecutive month, signalling a measured policy approach following targeted easing initiatives. The steady rate stance suggests limited near-term scope for broad monetary stimulus, reinforcing a cautious macro outlook across the region.

Currency Market Summary

The South African rand strengthened as investors positioned ahead of the 2026 national budget, supported by a relatively favourable domestic macro backdrop and expectations of fiscal clarity. Globally, the U.S. dollar remained subdued, with markets digesting renewed volatility linked to trade policy developments and tariff uncertainty. The dollar index held steady at 97.69 following recent weakness, while the yen softened marginally amid reports of U.S.-led currency support measures. Overall, currency markets reflected cautious positioning as investors balanced geopolitical risks with evolving policy signals.

Commodity Market Summary

Commodity markets softened, with gold retreating as investors took profits following recent gains and a stronger U.S. dollar weighed on prices. Oil remained near seven-month highs but showed signs of consolidation as markets assessed the geopolitical outlook, particularly ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and escalating Middle East tensions. Diplomatic developments, including a planned third round of talks in Geneva, remain central to the near-term supply outlook. However, rising geopolitical risk, underscored by U.S. precautionary measures in Beirut and firm rhetoric from Washington, continues to underpin volatility across energy markets.

Sasol Limited (SOL) +0.07%

Sasol reported mixed H1 FY26 results, reflecting operational improvement amid a softer macro backdrop. Turnover remained flat at R122.4 billion, supported by a 3% increase in sales volumes and a 10% rise in Secunda Operations production. Cost discipline contributed to lower fixed costs and improved free cash flow of R0.8 billion. However, profitability weakened, with adjusted EBITDA declining 12% to R21.0 billion, EBIT down 52% to R4.6 billion and HEPS falling 34% to R9.27. Net debt stood at R63.3 billion (1.6x EBITDA), while capital expenditure was reduced by 43% to R8.5 billion.

SPAR Group Limited (SPP) -9.14%

SPAR reported modest trading for the 18 weeks to 30 January 2026, reflecting a highly competitive environment characterised by low food inflation and category deflation. Group wholesale turnover from continuing operations increased 2.1% year-on-year, supported by strong SPAR Health growth (+23.0%) and solid Ireland performance (+6.1%), while Southern Africa grew 0.9%. Margin pressure persisted due to promotional intensity, adverse sales mix and ongoing investment in loyalty initiatives. Retail sales rose 1.7% (like-for-like +1.9%), with improving momentum into the festive period and continued resilience in core fresh categories.

Clientèle Limited (CLI) +0.98%

Clientèle expects a strong operational performance for the six months to 31 December 2025, with HEPS projected to increase between 92% and 112% to 98.41–108.66 cents, supported by underlying earnings growth and contributions from Emerald Life. However, EPS is expected to decline 24% to 44% due to the absence of a prior-period once-off bargain purchase gain relating to 1Life. On a restated basis, HEPS growth remains robust at 43%–63%. The Group maintains solid solvency, liquidity and cash flow generation, with interim results scheduled for release on 2 March 2026.

Aveng Limited (AEG) -0.24%

Aveng delivered a marked operational turnaround for the six months to 31 December 2025, returning to profitability despite lower revenue of A$1.2 billion (R14.2 billion). Operating earnings before capital items improved to A$9.4 million from a prior-period loss, while headline earnings turned positive at A$0.3 million. Balance sheet strength continued to improve, with net cash rising to A$250.1 million and cash holdings increasing to A$308.8 million. Work in hand expanded to A$3.5 billion, supporting forward visibility, although the Group reported a marginal basic loss for the period.

Telemasters Holdings Limited (TLM) 0.00%

Telemasters expects a strong improvement in interim earnings for the six months to 31 December 2025, with both earnings per share and headline earnings per share increasing by 94% to 0.68 cents, from 0.35 cents in the prior corresponding period. The trading update reflects a material uplift in profitability, meeting JSE reporting thresholds for disclosure. The reported financial information remains unaudited, and further detail is expected upon release of the Group’s interim financial results.

ONEOK Inc. (OKE) 0.00%

ONEOK reported a slight decline in fourth-quarter earnings, with EPS easing to $1.55 as weakness in its natural gas transportation segment weighed on performance following the 2024 pipeline divestiture. Segment profit declined materially, although partial offsets came from growth in natural gas liquids (+4%) and gathering and processing (+10%). Refined products and crude earnings also softened modestly. The Group guided full-year net income to $3.19–$3.71 billion, broadly below consensus at the midpoint, as it continues to reposition its portfolio through recent acquisitions to support longer-term growth.

Domino’s Pizza Inc. (DPZ) +4.10%

Domino’s reported resilient fourth-quarter trading, with U.S. same-store sales rising 3.7%, ahead of expectations, driven by value-led promotions and product innovation. Strategic pricing initiatives, including the relaunch of its $9.99 offering, alongside delivery partnerships such as DoorDash, supported demand and market share gains. However, diluted EPS of $5.35 marginally missed forecasts, while international same-store sales growth of 0.7% lagged expectations amid softer demand in key markets. Management expects approximately 3% U.S. same-store sales growth in FY26, signalling continued momentum in value-driven consumer segments.

JPMorgan Chase & Company (JPM) -4.22%

JPMorgan signalled a strong start to the year, guiding investment banking fees and markets revenue to rise by a mid- to high-teens percentage in the first quarter, alleviating concerns around deal pipeline weakness amid recent equity market volatility. Management highlighted resilient M&A activity underpinned by structural drivers, while elevated market volatility is supporting trading income. The bank maintained its expense outlook at $105 billion and plans to increase technology investment to $19.8 billion in 2026. Consumer health remains stable, with no signs of credit deterioration, reinforcing a constructive U.S. economic backdrop.

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