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market commentary

South Africa:
The Top 40 index added 0.69% on Friday as it reached 98,714.3 points, while the All Share index gained 0.65% to settle the week at 106,110.8 points. Trade Minister Parks Tau met U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to discuss rolling back the 30% U.S. tariffs imposed last month on South African imports. These tariffs, the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa, risk tens of thousands of jobs amid weak economic growth and unemployment above 30%. The talks followed three days of intense negotiations. Meanwhile, South Africa’s Democratic Alliance announced Helen Zille as its mayoral candidate for Johannesburg, aiming to regain control of the country’s largest city in next year’s local elections.

Europe:
European shares closed mostly unchanged, with the STOXX 600 down just 0.04%. European banks led gains, recovering 1.26% after earlier losses, while defense stocks remained near record highs. Fitch is expected to upgrade Italy’s credit rating, reflecting improved political stability and fiscal discipline. Spain’s National Statistics Institute raised its 2024 GDP forecast to 3.5%. However, shares of shipping giants Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd fell sharply amid concerns about lower container freight rates and softening U.S. port volumes.

United States:
Wall Street’s major indexes closed at record highs for a second consecutive day, boosted by the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut and signs of further easing. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their third straight week of gains, with trading volume reaching 27.78 billion shares, the highest since April. FedEx shares rose 2.3% after strong quarterly earnings driven by domestic deliveries and cost reductions. Apple surged 3.2% on an upgraded price target, while other tech stocks also helped lift the market.

Asia-Pacific:
Asia-Pacific markets mostly gained following strong U.S. equities. China’s central bank held lending rates steady for the fourth month, maintaining the one-year LPR at 3.0% and the five-year rate at 3.5%. South Korea’s President Lee warned of a potential crisis if the U.S. trade demands continue without protections. India’s Prime Minister Modi urged citizens to support local products amid tense U.S. relations. The Reserve Bank of Australia remains cautious, expecting recent rate cuts to aid spending but noting global uncertainties.

Currencies:
The South African rand traded flat after the Reserve Bank’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged and ongoing tariff negotiations with the U.S. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar remained steady as investors awaited a series of Federal Reserve officials’ speeches this week for further guidance on interest rate policy following last week’s easing move

Commodities:
Valterra Platinum’s CEO forecast a potential 20% drop in global platinum group metals production by 2030, worsening supply deficits amid steady demand from automakers. Gold hovered near record highs ahead of key Federal Reserve speeches and inflation data this week. Oil prices edged higher, supported by geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East, despite increased Iraqi exports and easing OPEC+ production cuts. Market participants remain cautious about how tariffs might impact global fuel demand.

local commentary

Investec Limited (INL) -3.77%

Investec Group’s 1H2026 pre-close update indicates stable earnings, aligned with the prior period despite challenging macroeconomic conditions. Adjusted EPS is expected between 38.7p-41.5p, with a 52-54% cost-to-income ratio and strong credit quality maintained. Southern African operations show resilience with ROE around 18.5%, while UK business returns remain within target ranges despite elevated credit loss guidance. The Group continues share buybacks and strategic investments to enhance growth. Overall, ROE is projected between 13-14%, supporting long-term capital generation and medium-term return targets.

Mustek Limited (MST) +1.78%

Mustek reported FY2025 revenue of R7.2 billion, down 14.9% year-on-year, impacted by market conditions. Despite the revenue decline, gross profit margin improved to 13.3% from 12.2%. Headline earnings per share rose 8.3% to 72.73 cents, while basic EPS surged 92.2% to 71.71 cents, reflecting operational efficiencies. The Board declared a dividend of 13.75 cents per share, up 83.3%. Net asset value per share increased modestly by 2.4% to 2,869.71 cents. Prior year figures were restated to correct revenue classification errors without profit impact.

Safari Investments RSA Limited (SAR) +4.90%

Safari reported an operating profit of R333.5 million for FY2025, down from R381.7 million in the prior 15-month period. Investment property fair value rose 3.74% to R4.19 billion, excluding the Platz Am Meer asset sold in June 2025. The Group’s SA REIT loan-to-value ratio improved to 31.5%, with net asset value per share increasing to R11.47. EPS was 217 cents, while headline EPS stood at 74 cents. A final dividend of 40 cents per share brings total FY2025 distributions to 74 cents, maintaining a 100% payout ratio.

international commentary

Stellantis N.V. (STLAP) +0.56%

Stellantis disclosed a cybersecurity breach involving unauthorized access to a third-party platform supporting its North American customer service operations. The incident, currently under investigation, exposed only basic customer contact information, with no financial or sensitive personal data compromised. The automaker has activated its incident response protocols, informed affected customers, and notified authorities. This breach aligns with a broader trend of cyberattacks impacting the automotive sector, including recent disruptions at Jaguar Land Rover. Stellantis cautions stakeholders on potential phishing risks amid heightened cybersecurity threats.

ByteDance / TikTok (Not Listed)

A U.S.-China deal on TikTok’s U.S. operations grants ByteDance one of seven board seats, with Americans holding the majority. This agreement, delaying the 2025 shutdown mandate, aims to secure U.S. data on Oracle cloud infrastructure and retrain TikTok’s content algorithm under U.S. supervision to mitigate national security risks. TikTok’s U.S. assets will be majority American-owned with a cybersecurity-focused board. ByteDance shareholders include KKR and General Atlantic; ByteDance will hold under 20% in the new venture. The deal represents a rare U.S.-China breakthrough amid trade tensions.

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