Walmart lifts outlook on strong online growth, higher income shoppers and AI push

South Africa

South African equities ended marginally weaker, with the Top 40 slipping 0.26% to 104,347.98 points and the All Share easing 0.11% to 111,896.75 points, as investors digested the SARB’s first policy decision under the new 3% inflation target. The unanimous 25 bps cut to 6.75% eased concerns that the revised framework would constrain monetary flexibility, with the MPC citing improved disinflation trends and slightly softer forecasts for 2025–26. Economists were divided ahead of the meeting, while political noise around G20 participation added limited volatility without materially shifting market direction.

Europe

European markets advanced, with the STOXX 600 gaining 0.4% as Nvidia’s results helped calm concerns over an AI-driven equity bubble, although late-session uncertainty around U.S. monetary policy capped earlier gains. Defence stocks rebounded, reversing prior declines tied to geopolitical developments. UK consumer confidence weakened slightly, while manufacturing output recorded its sharpest fall since 2020 as firms delayed activity ahead of the upcoming budget. The Bundesbank signalled moderate German growth in Q4 as services offset ongoing industrial weakness, though the broader regional outlook remains constrained by tepid domestic demand and policy uncertainty.

United States

U.S. equities reversed sharply, with both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 recording their lowest closes since early September amid renewed pressure on technology valuations. Nvidia fell 3.2% after early gains, dragging the semiconductor complex lower as the SOX index dropped nearly 5%. Intraday volatility surged, reflecting investor unease as mixed labour data clouded expectations for a December Fed cut. Rising unemployment alongside stronger-than-expected job creation produced an ambiguous signal, amplified by the release of delayed economic reports following the 43-day government shutdown. Risk sentiment weakened broadly as markets reassessed near-term policy risks.

Asia

Asia-Pacific markets tracked the U.S. tech-led sell-off, despite firmer Japanese macro data. Japan’s exports rose 3.6% year-on-year, outperforming expectations on robust European and Asian demand, even as U.S.-bound shipments declined. Core inflation matched forecasts at 3%, marking a 43-month stretch above the BoJ’s 2% target and reinforcing expectations of continued policy normalisation. Automobile exports softened modestly, but the pace of contraction eased compared with the prior month. Broader regional sentiment remained cautious, with investors recalibrating expectations for global liquidity conditions amid fading hopes of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Currencies

Currency markets were mixed, with the rand steady after the SARB’s 25 bps rate cut signalled confidence in the improved inflation outlook. The dollar headed for its strongest weekly gain in more than a month as traders reassessed expectations for a December Fed cut following mixed U.S. jobs data. The yen briefly strengthened after Japan’s finance minister warned of possible intervention to counter speculative volatility, while the euro remained near a two-week low. Sterling softened on the week despite a small intraday rise, as investors awaited next week’s pivotal UK budget.

Commodities

Commodity markets trended lower, with gold softening as stronger-than-expected U.S. labour data reduced the probability of a December Federal Reserve rate cut. Oil extended its three-session decline, driven by renewed geopolitical developments as the United States pushed for progress on a Russia-Ukraine peace framework that could eventually unlock additional supply. Sentiment across the complex was further dampened by uncertainty surrounding the timing of U.S. monetary easing, curbing risk appetite. In China, a major state-owned coal-to-chemicals project integrating green hydrogen entered commercial operations, adding a structural shift to the regional energy landscape.

Mr Price Group Limited (MRP) +6.80%

Mr Price delivered resilient interim results for the 26 weeks to 27 September 2025, with revenue up 5.4% to R18.6bn and retail sales rising 5.5%, ahead of the market. Gross margin expanded 30bps to 40% and operating margin improved to 11.5% through disciplined cost control. HEPS increased 6.5%, supported by strong apparel, home and telecoms performances and robust omni-channel growth. The group remained debt-free, declared a 6.5% higher interim dividend, and maintained healthy cash generation despite a constrained consumer environment.

Investec plc (INP) -5.20%

Investec delivered resilient interim results for the six months to 30 September 2025, with adjusted EPS rising 2.5% to 40.5p despite a volatile macro backdrop. Revenue benefited from lending growth, stronger client activity and solid fund inflows, while cost discipline kept the cost-to-income ratio at 51.9%. Credit quality remained robust with a 35bps CLR. ROE of 13.6% stayed within target, supported by strong capital generation and continued share buybacks. NAV per share rose to 608.1p, and the interim dividend increased to 17.5p as the Group advanced its medium-term growth strategy.

Lewis Group Limited (LEW) +3.43%

Lewis Group delivered a strong interim performance for the six months to 30 September 2025, with revenue up 11.3% to R4.8 billion and merchandise sales rising 6.7%. Other revenue grew 16.7%, supporting a firmer gross margin of 41.0%. Operating profit increased 21.4% to R522 million, lifting the operating margin to 20.7%. Credit metrics improved, with satisfactory paid accounts rising to 82.7% and the debtors book expanding 14%. HEPS increased 16.8% to 648 cents, and the interim dividend was raised 12.3% to 337 cents per share.

Reunert Limited (RLO) +4.73%

Reunert reported a solid second-half recovery for the year to 30 September 2025, helping offset a softer first half in a challenging demand environment. Full-year revenue from continuing operations declined 2% to R13.9bn, while operating profit fell 8% to R1.5bn. HEPS decreased 5% to 649 cents. However, cash generation remained a standout, with free cash flow of R1.17bn and net cash improving to R743m. The Group declared a final dividend of 293 cents, up 6%, as it enters the new year with strengthened momentum and a robust balance sheet.

Argent Industrial Limited (ART) +6.41%

Argent Industrial delivered strong interim results for the six months to 30 September 2025, with revenue up 12.4% to R1.42 bn and EBITDA rising 13.2%. Operating profit grew 11.4% to R195.4 m, while profit for the period increased 12.7%. The balance sheet remained robust, with NAV per share up 11.9% to 3 654.9 cents. HEPS rose 13.3% to 261.7 cents, supported by solid operational execution across the portfolio. The interim dividend was increased 11.7% to 67 cents per share, reflecting continued confidence in cash generation and earnings momentum.

Walmart Inc. (WMT) +6.46%

Walmart raised its full-year sales and earnings guidance after another strong quarter, driven by 28% online growth and broad-based market share gains. U.S. comparable sales rose 4.5%, with higher-income consumers continuing to lead discretionary and grocery spending. Management signalled steady Q4 trends, supported by robust holiday demand. Revenue increased 5.8% to $179.5bn and adjusted EPS beat expectations at $0.62. Walmart will shift its listing to Nasdaq as AI-enabled operations scale, with over 40% of new code AI-generated. International sales climbed 10.8%, reflecting broad strength across major markets.

Intuit Inc. (INTU) -2.03%

Intuit forecast second-quarter revenue growth of 14–15%, ahead of expectations, reflecting rising demand for its AI-powered financial management ecosystem across TurboTax, Credit Karma and QuickBooks. Q1 results exceeded forecasts, with revenue up 18% to $3.89bn and adjusted EPS of $3.34. A multi-year deal with OpenAI will deepen AI integration across its products, while upcoming board appointments further strengthen strategic oversight. Although Q2 EPS guidance trailed estimates, management reiterated its FY2026 outlook for double-digit growth and margin expansion. The quarterly dividend was increased 15% to $1.20 per share.

Gap Inc. (GAP) -1.79%

Gap delivered a better-than-expected third quarter, with comparable sales up 5% and adjusted EPS of $0.62 beating forecasts. Strong marketing campaigns and collaborations boosted demand across Old Navy (+6%), Gap brand (+7%) and Banana Republic (+4%), offsetting continued weakness at Athleta, where sales fell 11%. Revenue rose 3% to $3.94bn. Management reiterated tariff-related margin headwinds of 100–110bps but noted reduced sourcing exposure to China. Brand-building initiatives and diversified offerings, including a new beauty line, helped lift relevance among younger consumers and support share gains.

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