American Express lifts 2025 outlook as affluent spending surges ahead of holiday season

South Africa

The Top 40 index fell 2.20% to 103,429 points, with the All Share index down 2.02% to 110,736 points. South Africa plans to expand gas use and revive a modular nuclear programme, targeting R2.23 trillion ($128 billion) in energy investments by 2042, increasing nuclear and gas capacity to 16% from 3%. Mining stocks were weak, with Sibanye Stillwater, Harmony Gold, and Valterra Platinum down about 9%, and Impala Platinum, Northam Platinum, and Gold Fields roughly 6%. Investors await September inflation data, with economists expecting minimal change around 3.3–3.5%.

European Union

European shares fell on Friday as U.S. regional bank stress drove investors to safe havens. The STOXX 600 declined nearly 1% but gained 0.4% weekly, while aerospace & defence dropped 3.6% after Trump and Putin agreed to another Ukraine summit. French stocks rose after Prime Minister Lecornu survived no-confidence votes, potentially aiding budget approval. UK house prices showed minimal growth at 0.3%, below the seasonal 1.1% average. The Bank of England will enhance policy transparency, and Italy unveiled a €18.7 billion budget, including tax cuts and defence spending boosts.

United States

Wall Street rose on Friday as investors assessed Trump’s latest China comments and regional bank earnings eased credit risk concerns. Trump admitted a 100% China tariff was unsustainable while blaming Beijing for trade tensions. Regional banks rebounded after losses and legal disputes, while strong Q3 results from JPMorgan and other major banks bolstered sentiment. Analysts now expect S&P 500 earnings to grow 9.3%, up from 8.8% earlier in October. The CBOE volatility index fell to 21.5, retreating from a six-month high of 28.99, reflecting reduced market anxiety.

Asia

Asian markets rose on Monday, led by Japan’s Nikkei (+2.8%) as a coalition government positions Sanae Takaichi to become the country’s first female prime minister, likely favouring stimulus over rate hikes. China’s economy grew 1.1% in Q3, with industrial output up 6.5%, yet annual growth slowed to 4.8%. Falling home prices continue to weigh on household spending. Retail sales rose modestly by 3%. Chinese exports to North Korea surged 30.8% YoY in September. Investors hope for further policy support during discussions on China’s Five-Year Plan to boost economic growth.

Commodities

Gold edged higher on Monday on prospects for U.S. interest rate cuts, following a sharp 1.8% decline on Friday after Trump tempered China tariff threats. Oil prices fell on concerns about a global glut, U.S.-China trade tensions, and weaker demand. Both benchmarks posted their third consecutive weekly decline. Geopolitical factors, including renewed U.S.-Russia pressure on Asian buyers of Russian energy and a planned Ukraine summit, influenced markets. U.S. rigs rose last week, according to Baker Hughes, as supplies edged higher. Investors await U.S. inflation data and trade negotiations for further direction.

Currencies

The South African rand remained weak amid trade uncertainty and ahead of domestic inflation data. The Japanese yen softened as Sanae Takaichi’s expected premiership signals fiscal and monetary stimulus, weakening the safe-haven currency. Improved global risk appetite, reduced U.S.-China trade tensions, and easing worries over U.S. regional banks also pressured the yen. Conversely, the Australian dollar strengthened on heightened risk sentiment. Market participants are positioning for potential central bank moves and geopolitical developments, including U.S.-China trade dynamics, while regional currency performance reflects both domestic fundamentals and global investor confidence shifts.

Prosus N.V. (PRX) -1.03%

Prosus has announced the final results of its recommended public offer for Just Eat Takeaway.com N.V. (JET), with the Offeror—an indirectly wholly-owned subsidiary of Prosus—now holding 98.19% of JET’s issued share capital. An additional 8.06% of shares were tendered during the Post-Closing Acceptance Period, bringing Prosus’s total to nearly full ownership. Settlement for these shares will occur on 21 October 2025, after which Prosus intends to initiate statutory squeeze-out proceedings to acquire the remaining shares. Trading in JET shares will end on 14 November 2025, with delisting from Euronext Amsterdam effective 17 November 2025.

Zeder Investments Limited (ZED) -6.02%

Zeder has issued a trading statement indicating that its net asset value per share (NAVPS) as at 31 August 2025 is expected to range between R1.64 and R1.72, representing a decline of 20.0% to 23.7% year-on-year from R2.15 at 31 August 2024, and 2.8% to 7.3% lower than the R1.77 reported at 28 February 2025. The decrease primarily reflects the 31.0 cents per share special dividend paid to shareholders and modest downward revaluations of remaining unlisted assets. Zeder’s unaudited interim results for the six months ended 31 August 2025 will be released on 21 October 2025.

TeleMasters Holdings Limited (TLM) 0.00%

TeleMasters, a diversified technology investment group, reported revenue growth of 7.8% to R64.5 million for the year ended 30 June 2025. Operating profit declined 16.5% to R1.1 million, reflecting ongoing investment across its ICT, data centre, and cloud communications businesses. However, earnings per share rose 50% to 0.93 cents, and headline earnings per share increased 58.8% to 1.08 cents, supported by improved cost management and operational efficiency. The dividend doubled to 0.2 cents per share, while net asset value per share remained stable at 65.13 cents. The Group continues to pursue growth through digital infrastructure, smart connectivity, and strategic technology investments.

Jubilee Metals Group Plc (JBL) -1.47%

Jubilee has provided an operational update for its South African operations for Q1 FY2026, highlighting progress on the sale of its Chrome and PGM Operations. Shareholder approval was obtained on 28 August 2025, and the Company has already received the first US$15 million cash tranche. Completion remains subject to Competition Commission approval and the delivery of audited accounts for the Disposal Group, expected by year-end. Chrome production fell 11.2% to 404,151 tonnes, and PGM output declined 10.1% to 8,382 oz, mainly due to the cessation of the OBB supply contract. Safety performance improved, with LTIFR down 27.8% to 0.96.

4Sight Holdings Limited (4SI) +1.28%

4Sight has issued a trading statement indicating that earnings per share (EPS) for the six months ended 31 August 2025 are expected to be between 6.483 and 7.024 cents, reflecting a 25.1% to 35.5% increase compared to 5.184 cents for the prior period. Headline EPS is expected in a similar range of 6.482 to 7.023 cents, representing a 25.0% to 35.4% uplift year-on-year. The Company’s half-year results will be published before the end of October 2025. The trading statement has not been reviewed or audited.

American Express (AXP) +7.27%

American Express has raised the lower end of its 2025 profit and revenue guidance, reflecting strong spending by its affluent cardholders ahead of the holiday season. The company now expects EPS of $15.20–$15.50 (previously $15–$15.50) and revenue growth of 9–10% (up from 8–10%), supported by travel and luxury purchases during Christmas, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday. Q3 revenue jumped 11% to a record $18.4 billion, with EPS of $4.14 per share beating consensus. CEO Stephen Squeri noted that new Platinum card acquisitions have doubled post-refresh, highlighting the resilience of high-income consumers and minimal credit risk exposure.

Autoliv (ALV) -2.62%

Autoliv, the world’s largest airbag and seatbelt manufacturer, reported Q3 adjusted operating profit of $271 million, up 14% year-on-year and exceeding analyst expectations of $248 million. The company has recouped around 75% of U.S. import tariff costs, with most of the remaining impact expected to be recovered in Q4. Performance was driven by strong sales in the Americas and Europe, cost reduction measures, and tariff compensation. Growth in China improved during the quarter, with further outperformance anticipated in Q4 2025. Despite strong results, shares were down slightly, reflecting limited incremental positive news beyond consensus expectations.

Gazprom (GAZP) +1.11%

Gazprom’s financial situation remains stable, according to CEO Alexei Miller. The company reported a $7 billion loss in 2023, its first since 1999, following a sharp decline in European sales. Russian gas now represents 18% of European imports, down from 45% in 2021, while oil imports from Russia have fallen to 3% from around 30% over the same period, reflecting the significant reduction in Europe’s reliance on Russian energy.

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