Etsy misses revenue and GMS estimates as holiday sales weaken

Local Market Commentary
The Top 40 and All Share indices declined by 0.79% and 0.81%, closing at 80,772.8 and 88,341.9 points, respectively. South Africa’s Finance Minister, Enoch Godongwana, confirmed a postponed budget speech, with further discussions and a revised proposal expected in March. The Democratic Alliance attributed the delay to opposition against an ANC-backed proposal to raise VAT by two percentage points. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s decision to skip the upcoming G20 finance ministers' meeting in Cape Town is an unusual move, given the U.S.'s central role in global financial policy discussions.

European Market Commentary
European markets experienced their sharpest daily decline of the year, with the STOXX 600 falling 0.9% amid escalating trade war concerns following U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff threats. Major indices across Germany, France, Italy, and Spain dropped between 0.5% and 1.8%. Investor sentiment was further pressured by a rise in German bond yields, reflecting expectations of increased government borrowing for defence spending, as well as hawkish signals from the European Central Bank. Attention is shifting to Germany’s upcoming elections, with markets watching whether a Conservative-led coalition secures the two-thirds majority needed to amend the constitutional debt brake.

U.S. Market Commentary
U.S. equities closed slightly higher on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 achieving its second consecutive all-time closing high as investors assessed the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes and President Trump’s tariff plans. The Fed maintained its key interest rate, though policymakers voiced concerns over persistent inflation and potential tariff-related disruptions to price stability. Housing starts plummeted 9.8% in January due to weak demand, elevated mortgage rates, and severe winter weather. Healthcare led sectoral gains, while materials and financials underperformed. As the fourth-quarter earnings season nears completion, 74% of S&P 500 firms have exceeded expectations, with earnings growth now projected at 15.3% year-on-year, significantly above the initial 9.6% estimate, according to LSEG.

Asia Market Commentary
Asia-Pacific markets traded lower as investors assessed President Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on autos, semiconductors, and pharmaceutical imports. Despite this, Australia’s labour market showed resilience, adding 44,000 jobs in January—more than double Reuters’ estimates—though the jobless rate edged up to 4.1%. In China, the People’s Bank of China held its key lending rates steady, prioritising financial stability over rate cuts. Meanwhile, South Korea’s wholesale inflation remained at 1.7% year-on-year in January, driven by price gains in livestock, energy, and utilities, according to preliminary data from the Bank of Korea.

Commodity Market Commentary
Gold prices dipped after reaching a record high earlier in the day, as the dollar strengthened and President Trump's latest tariff threats heightened investor uncertainty. Oil prices also retreated slightly following a rise in U.S. crude inventories, with concerns over the impact of tariffs potentially slowing economic growth and reducing fuel demand. Additional worries about European and Chinese demand kept prices in check. However, disruptions in Russian oil exports, particularly a significant reduction in Caspian Pipeline Consortium flows following a drone attack in Ukraine, provided some support for oil prices. U.S. crude stocks increased by 3.34 million barrels, according to API data, while gasoline inventories saw a rise of 2.83 million barrels.

Currency Market Commentary
The South African rand weakened on Wednesday following the postponement of the national budget, driven by internal disagreements within the coalition government. The British pound saw a modest gain after UK consumer inflation exceeded expectations in January, reducing the likelihood of the Bank of England making two additional rate cuts this year. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen strengthened, and the U.S. dollar remained steady as markets assessed the potential global economic impact of President Trump's new tariff proposals and their influence on central bank interest rate policies. Geopolitical tensions also escalated, with Trump calling Ukrainian President Zelenskiy a "dictator," in the context of ongoing discussions about ending the Russia-Ukraine war.

Discovery Limited (DSY) +7.57%
Discovery expects solid financial results for the six months ending 31 December 2024, with normalised profit from operations projected to increase by 25%–30%, driven by strong performance across its business units, including Discovery South Africa and Vitality. Headline earnings (HE) and normalised headline earnings (NHE) are both forecast to rise by 30%–35%. Basic earnings per share (EPS) is estimated between 628.3 and 652.5 cents, while headline EPS (HEPS) and normalised HEPS (NHEPS) are expected to range from 629.3 to 653.5 cents and 641.0 to 665.7 cents, respectively, reflecting a 30%–35% increase from restated prior-period figures. These adjustments incorporate IFRS 17 refinements for VitalityLife. Full results will be released on or around 4 March 2025.

Wilson Bayly Holmes-Ovcon Limited (WBO) -2.08%
Wilson Bayly Holmes-Ovcon (WBHO) anticipates a robust performance for the six months ended 31 December 2024, with earnings per share (EPS) and headline earnings per share (HEPS) from continuing operations expected to rise by 15%–25%, reaching 1,052–1,143 cents and 1,042–1,132 cents, respectively. Attributable EPS and HEPS from total operations are also forecast to grow by 15%–25%, ranging from 1,042–1,132 cents and 1,032–1,121 cents, respectively. These improvements reflect the Group’s strong execution across its operations. Full financial results will be released on SENS on 4 March 2025.

Vodacom Group Limited (VOD) +0.21%
Vodacom aims to accelerate its EBITDA growth into double digits, up from the 7.8% recorded in its latest annual results, leveraging customer base expansion and financial services growth. As part of its "Vision 2030" strategy, the telecom giant plans to increase its customer base by 50 million to 260 million across eight African markets while adding over 35 million financial services customers. With smartphone penetration projected to rise from 63% to 75%, Vodacom targets financial services revenue growth of 15%–20% by 2030, expanding into wealth management and broader fintech solutions. The Group’s revenue is expected to surpass ZAR 200 billion ($10.8 billion) by 2030, up from ZAR 151 billion in 2025.

Glencore PLC (GLN) -5.68%
Glencore delivered a strong operational performance in 2024, maintaining production in line with guidance and achieving a 4% year-over-year increase in copper equivalent volumes, supported by the EVR steelmaking coal acquisition. Adjusted EBITDA reached $14.4 billion, down 16% from 2023 due to lower energy coal prices, while funds from operations grew by 11% to $10.5 billion. Strong cash generation supported $6.7 billion in capital expenditures, the $7 billion EVR acquisition, and $1.9 billion in shareholder returns. The company announced a $2.2 billion shareholder return, including a $0.10 per share base distribution and a $1 billion share buyback. With a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.78x, Glencore remains well-positioned for future growth.

Sibanye-Stillwater Limited (SSW) +0.48%
Sibanye-Stillwater expects a significantly reduced loss per share (EPS) of 245–271 SA cents for 2024, reflecting an 80%–82% improvement from 2023, driven by a stronger second-half performance despite a US PGM asset impairment of R8.8 billion. Headline earnings per share (HEPS) are projected between 63–67 SA cents, indicating stable to modest growth. While lower PGM prices weighed on revenue, higher gold prices and contributions from the Reldan acquisition provided some offset. Group production remained within guidance, though US PGM operations and the Century mine slightly underperformed due to restructuring and bushfire disruptions. The company remains committed to optimising operations amid market volatility.

Etsy Inc. (ETSY) -10.05%
Etsy missed Wall Street's revenue and gross merchandise sales (GMS) estimates for the holiday quarter, with weak consumer spending on gifts and handcrafted items affecting its performance. The online marketplace reported GMS of $3.74 billion for the quarter ending December 31, below analysts' forecast of $3.88 billion, and revenue of $852.2 million, falling short of expectations of $862.8 million. Despite the revenue miss, Etsy surpassed earnings estimates, posting $1.03 per share, ahead of the anticipated 93 cents. Looking ahead, the company projected a 6.8% decline in first-quarter GMS, mirroring the contraction seen in the final quarter of 2024.

Wix.com Limited (WIX) -4.73%
Wix.com, a platform for building and managing websites for small businesses, exceeded fourth-quarter net profit expectations, reporting earnings of $1.93 per diluted share, up from $1.22 a year earlier. Revenue for the quarter grew 14% to $460.5 million, with sales from partners like agencies and freelancers rising 29%. Analysts had expected $1.59 per share on revenue of $461.75 million. Wix projects 2025 revenue to reach between $1.97 billion and $2.0 billion, driven by its AI and Studio website design products, with anticipated annual growth of up to 16%. The company expects first-quarter revenue of $469-$473 million, a 13-14% increase. Wix's 2024 revenue rose 13% to $1.76 billion, and it had over 282 million registered users, including 6.2 million premium subscribers. The company completed a $200 million share repurchase plan in January, bringing total repurchases since August 2023 to $725 million, with more buybacks expected.

Koninklijke Philips N.V. (PHG) -11.52%
Philips forecast a mid-single-digit decline in first-quarter comparable sales, partly due to weak consumer spending in China, after missing expectations for the final quarter of 2024. The Dutch healthcare technology company anticipates a mid- to high-single-digit decline in its China sales for 2025, impacted by new tariffs from Beijing and the U.S. On a global scale, Philips expects 1% to 3% growth in comparable sales for 2025, slightly better than the 1% growth in 2024. In Q4 2024, comparable sales rose only 1%, underperforming both analyst expectations and the 6% growth in the same period of 2023. Total sales for the quarter were 5.04 billion euros, below the forecasted 5.07 billion euros, and adjusted EBITA came in at 679 million euros, slightly missing the 683 million euros estimate. Philips proposed an annual dividend of 0.85 euros per share, unchanged from the previous year.

Do you prefer a full in-depth report you can read offline? Click here to download the full report.