Garmin beats Q4 expectations, lifts 2026 outlook on strong wearable demand

South African Market Summary

South African equities rallied strongly, with the JSE All Share index rising 2.60% to 122,517.32 and the Top 40 gaining 2.74% to 114,336.87, supported by improved risk sentiment. Business confidence eased marginally in January, with the SACCI index declining to 131.4, although remaining elevated relative to 2025 averages. Weakness in manufacturing, exports and vehicle sales weighed on sentiment, while focus shifts to the upcoming national budget for policy direction. In the industrial sector, Lion Smelter resumed operations following power cost reductions, highlighting ongoing structural challenges in the ferrochrome industry.

European Market Summary

European equities advanced to record highs, with the STOXX 600 rising 1.2% to 628.69, supported by strength in defence and banking stocks. Defence shares gained 2.9%, led by BAE Systems following a strong earnings update and record order backlog, amid heightened geopolitical tensions. The FTSE 100 also reached a fresh peak as UK inflation eased to 3.0%, reinforcing expectations of a near-term Bank of England rate cut. Mining stocks contributed to gains on firmer metal prices, while broader sentiment remained underpinned by earnings resilience and policy support expectations.

US Market Summary

Wall Street closed higher, supported by gains in technology heavyweights including Nvidia and Amazon, as sentiment around artificial intelligence stabilised following recent valuation concerns. Nvidia rose after securing a multi-year AI chip supply agreement with Meta, reinforcing long-term demand visibility. Broader software stocks also recovered despite ongoing margin pressure risks. Macro data pointed to resilient US growth and business investment, while Federal Reserve minutes indicated a cautious policy stance, with markets pricing roughly a 50% probability of a 25bps rate cut by June, reflecting uncertainty over the rate trajectory.

Asian Market Summary

Asian equities edged higher, supported by gains in global technology stocks, while thinner trading volumes prevailed due to Lunar New Year closures in key markets. Oil prices remained firm amid ongoing US-Iran tensions, with gold supported by safe-haven demand. In Japan, policy expectations shifted more hawkish, with economists now anticipating the Bank of Japan to raise rates to 1% by mid-2026, potentially as early as April, driven by inflation concerns and yen weakness. This marks a notable pivot from prior expectations, with markets closely monitoring policy direction under the new administration.

Currency Market Summary

The South African rand weakened against a firmer US dollar, as hawkish Federal Reserve signals outweighed supportive domestic data, including inflation and retail sales. Fed minutes indicated a cautious stance on rate cuts, with some policymakers open to further tightening if inflation remains persistent, lifting US yields and underpinning the dollar. The euro and yen remained under pressure, while the New Zealand dollar declined sharply following a dovish central bank outlook. Currency markets remain sensitive to US policy expectations, with dollar strength continuing to dominate near-term direction.

Commodity Market Summary

Oil prices eased in early Asian trade after a sharp 4% prior-session rally, as markets balanced tentative diplomatic progress between the US and Iran against ongoing military activity in the region. Supply dynamics remained supportive, with US inventory data indicating unexpected declines in crude, gasoline and distillates, countering consensus expectations of a build. Market focus now shifts to official EIA data for confirmation. Gold edged lower following recent gains, pressured by a firmer US dollar and positioning ahead of key US inflation data, which may influence the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory.

Glencore plc (GLN) +6.39%

Glencore reported solid 2025 operational delivery, meeting full-year production guidance and highlighting accelerating copper-led growth, with output expected to exceed 1Mt by 2028 and c.1.6Mt by 2035. H2 Adjusted EBITDA rose 49% to $8.1bn, driven by improved volumes and firmer metals prices, despite a softer full-year outcome. Portfolio optimisation continued through targeted acquisitions and disposals, alongside a potential partial monetisation of DRC assets. The group declared total cash distributions of $2bn (17c/share) and reiterated strong free cash flow generation of approximately $7bn, underpinning its diversified, transition-focused investment case.

Sibanye-Stillwater Limited (SSW) +0.33%

Sibanye-Stillwater reported a strong 2025 recovery, with HEPS expected to rise over 360% to 232–256c, driven by higher gold and PGM prices and improved operational delivery. Despite this, the group expects a reduced EPS loss of 174–194c due to R14.0bn in non-cash impairments, primarily linked to Keliber, Kloof and US PGM assets. Production met or exceeded guidance across key operations, with US PGM restructuring restoring profitability in Q4. Improved pricing, operational stability and S45X credits underpin a materially stronger earnings profile into 2026.

DRDGOLD Limited (DRD) +4.25%

DRDGOLD reported a strong interim performance for the six months to December 2025, with revenue rising 33% to R5.05bn and operating profit increasing 72% to R2.71bn, reflecting higher gold prices and operational leverage. Earnings per share and HEPS nearly doubled to approximately 223c, underscoring robust profitability. The board declared an interim dividend of 50cps, up 67%, signalling strong cash generation and balance sheet confidence. The results highlight DRDGOLD’s effective tailings retreatment model and continued benefit from elevated rand gold prices, supporting attractive shareholder returns.

Transpaco Limited (TPC) -0.03%

Transpaco reported a softer interim performance for the six months to December 2025, with revenue declining 1.5% to R1.31bn and operating profit down 6.1% to R102.4m, reflecting margin pressure and weaker earnings momentum. HEPS decreased 6.0% to 254c, while the dividend per share declined 6.7% to 70c. Despite this, net asset value per share increased 7.7% to 3,597c, supported by balance sheet resilience. The group maintains low gearing, with a net debt-to-equity ratio of 3.6%, underpinning financial stability amid a more challenging operating environment.

Pan African Resources PLC (PAN) +10.76%

Pan African Resources delivered a strong interim performance for the six months to December 2025, with revenue surging 157% to $487.1m and adjusted EBITDA rising to $245.2m, supported by higher gold prices and improved production across key assets. HEPS increased over fivefold to 7.34 US cents, while profit reached a record $147.8m. Net debt declined 69% to $46.2m, with the group targeting a net cash position by February 2026. Despite elevated AISC guidance, operational momentum and cash generation supported an interim dividend of 12cps.

Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) +3.14%

Booking Holdings reported a solid fourth-quarter performance, with adjusted EPS of $48.80 ahead of expectations and revenue rising to $6.35bn, supported by resilient international travel demand and 16% growth in gross bookings to $43bn. Management highlighted continued strength in higher-income travel segments, while noting softer US trends, including lower average daily rates and shorter stays, reflecting consumer caution. The group guided to mid-teens earnings growth for 2026 and 14–16% bookings growth in Q1. A 25-for-1 stock split was also approved, enhancing share accessibility.

DoorDash Inc. (DASH) +6.80%

DoorDash guided first-quarter marketplace GOV to $31.0–$31.8bn, ahead of expectations, reflecting sustained demand and expansion across grocery, retail and international markets. Fourth-quarter GOV rose 39% to $29.68bn, while order growth remained robust, although EPS of $0.48 missed forecasts due to elevated investment. The group is accelerating platform integration across DoorDash, Wolt and Deliveroo, with significant 2026 technology spend weighing on near-term profitability, as reflected in softer EBITDA guidance. Competitive intensity remains elevated, but scale and convenience-led demand continue to support topline momentum.

Garmin Limited (GRMN) +9.04%

Garmin delivered a strong fourth-quarter performance and upgraded 2026 guidance, driven by robust demand for premium wearables and diversified end markets. Revenue increased 17% to $2.12bn, with fitness segment sales surging 42% to $765.8m, supporting adjusted EPS of $2.79, ahead of expectations. The group forecasts 2026 revenue of $7.9bn and adjusted EPS of $9.35, both above consensus. Broad exposure across wellness, marine and aviation, alongside a vertically integrated model and diversified distribution channels, continues to underpin resilient growth and margin stability.

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