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MARKET COMMENTARY

South Africa

The All Share index added 1.24% yesterday to close at 113,024.1 points, while the Top 40 index gained 1.43% to reach 105,756.0 points. Premier Group will acquire all RFG shares via a 5.7 billion rand ($329 million) share-swap, giving RFG shareholders a 22.5% stake in the combined company. President Ramaphosa suspended Intelligence Inspector-General Imtiaz Fazel amid a parliamentary probe. Food security reached a five-year high in 2024, supported by falling food prices, though hunger and inequality persist, with unemployment above 33%. Transport Minister Barbara Creecy’s renewal of 25-year fuel terminal contracts without tender triggered backlash, highlighting reliance on imports following refinery closures. These developments underline ongoing structural, economic, and social challenges in South Africa.

European Union

French stocks rose to a seven-month high after Prime Minister Lecornu survived two no-confidence votes, suspending contested pension reform. Nestle surged 9.3% on stronger-than-expected sales and 16,000 job cuts. The STOXX 600 gained 0.7%, led by food and beverage stocks despite insurance sector weakness. Positive earnings from U.S. and European firms helped sentiment after recent U.S.-China trade jitters. Analysts now expect a 0.5% increase in STOXX 600 third-quarter earnings, reversing a previous 0.2% dip, reflecting investor optimism across European markets amid improving corporate performance and macroeconomic signals.

United States

Wall Street fell as regional bank stresses spooked investors amid U.S.-China trade tensions. Zions Bancorporation and Western Alliance reported loan losses and fraud disputes, raising credit concerns. Despite record S&P 500 highs, weak regional banking news and falling insurance stocks, such as Travelers, weighed on sentiment. Philadelphia Fed data showed contracting business activity. Fed Governor Waller supported another rate cut due to mixed employment readings. Hewlett Packard Enterprise forecasted lower-than-expected profit and revenue. Analysts now anticipate S&P 500 aggregate earnings up 9.2% in Q3, versus 8.8% previously, indicating mixed signals for economic resilience.

Asia

Asian markets followed Wall Street lower, with gold and bonds rallying amid U.S. regional bank concerns. China retains scope for fiscal stimulus but should prioritize consumption over industrial policy, according to the IMF. Chinese GDP growth is projected to slow to 4.2% in 2026 from 4.8% in 2025, after weaker Q3 results pressured the official target. TSMC raised its full-year revenue forecast following record profits, reflecting optimism for AI-driven chip demand. Strong performance highlights ongoing faith in technology and AI sectors, despite broader macroeconomic headwinds and trade tensions affecting market sentiment.

Commodities

Gold surged above $4,300/oz, poised for its strongest week in five years, as U.S. bank stress and trade frictions prompted safe-haven demand. Oil slipped early Friday, heading for a weekly loss amid global supply uncertainty. Trump and Putin agreed to meet in Hungary soon to discuss ending the Ukraine war, while Washington urged India and China to limit Russian oil imports. U.S. crude inventories rose 3.5 million barrels to 423.8 million, exceeding expectations, as refinery utilization declined. Production hit a record 13.636 million barrels/day, adding pressure on oil markets.

Currencies

The South African rand held steady, supported by rising gold prices amid U.S.-China trade tensions. The U.S. dollar weakened on expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts due to economic weakness and an extended government shutdown that delayed key data releases. The dollar index hovered at 98.23, on track for a 0.6% weekly decline, its largest five-day drop since July. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen retained gains after comments from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda on potential rate hikes. Currency markets reflected safe-haven flows and investor caution amid global economic uncertainty.

LOCAL COMMENTARY

Cashbuild Limited (CSB) +1.30%

Cashbuild Limited reported a 6% year-on-year revenue increase for the first quarter of FY2026, underpinned by resilient consumer demand and ongoing store expansion. Revenue from existing stores rose 4%, while 11 new outlets contributed an additional 2%. Transaction volumes grew 6%, supported by modest selling inflation of 1.4%. Strong regional performance in the Common Monetary Areas (+10%) and Botswana and Malawi (+17%) offset weaker results at P&L Hardware (-10%). The Group opened three stores, refurbished one, and relocated another, bringing its total trading footprint to 321 locations.

DRDGOLD Limited (DRD) +4.62%

DRDGOLD Limited reported a 2% quarter-on-quarter rise in revenue to R2.25 billion for the September 2025 quarter, supported by a sustained high gold price of R1.94 million/kg and a 2% increase in production to 1,191 kg. Cash operating costs rose 3% to R955,086/kg, driven by labour, reagent, and seasonal electricity costs. All-in sustaining costs increased to R1.07 million/kg, while adjusted EBITDA edged up 1% to R1.09 billion. Despite R751.8 million in capital expenditure and a R345.7 million dividend payment, DRDGOLD remained debt-free with R1.05 billion in cash reserves.

PSG Financial Services Limited (KST) -2.61%

PSG Financial Services delivered robust interim results for the six months ended 31 August 2025, with recurring headline earnings per share rising 21% to 58.1 cents and dividends up 18% to 20 cents per share. Total assets under management increased 19% to R517.6 billion, supported by PSG Wealth (+18%) and PSG Asset Management (+21%), while PSG Insure’s gross written premium grew 6% to R4.0 billion. Return on equity reached 28.6%. The group maintained strong capital cover at 299% and an AA-(ZA) credit rating, while investing in technology and talent, including 73 newly qualified graduates.

Premier Group Limited (PMR) -3.40%

Premier FMCG has entered into a transaction implementation agreement to acquire all issued ordinary shares of Rhodes Food Group (RFG), excluding treasury shares, through a scheme of arrangement. RFG shareholders will receive one Premier share for every seven RFG shares held, plus cash for fractional entitlements, representing a premium of c.36–38% to recent trading prices. The acquisition will result in a combined group with c.R27.9 billion in revenue and c.R1.7 billion profit after tax. The scheme is subject to shareholder, regulatory, and competition approvals, with senior RFG management expected to remain in place post-transaction.

Labat Africa Limited (LAB) +33.33%

Labat Africa expects a substantial recovery in financial performance for the year ended 31 May 2025. Basic earnings per share are projected to rise 378% to 11.06 cents, while headline earnings per share are forecast at 13.28 cents, a 436% increase versus FY2024. Net asset value per share is expected to grow 831% to 21.87 cents. These results reflect a material improvement from prior-year losses and indicate a significant strengthening of the company’s balance sheet and profitability, highlighting Labat Africa’s operational recovery and enhanced value creation for shareholders.

INTERNATIONAL COMMENTARY

Oracle Corporation (ORCL) +3.09%

Oracle has forecast cloud infrastructure revenue of $166 billion by fiscal 2030, representing nearly 75% of total sales. CEO Clay Magouyrk highlighted strong demand across multiple customers, beyond OpenAI, while CFO Dough Kehring expects $225 billion in total revenue and adjusted EPS of $21 by 2030, exceeding analyst expectations of $198.4 billion and $18.92. Recent quarterly cloud revenue surged 28% to $7.2 billion, including $65 billion in new 30-day bookings. Oracle projects AI cloud gross margins of 30–40%, with conventional cloud margins at 65–80%, supporting sustained profitability over multi-year contracts.

M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) -3.46%

M&T Bank reported a rise in third-quarter net income to $754 million, or $4.82 per share, up from $674 million, or $4.02 per share, a year earlier, driven by stronger fee income. Total non-interest income increased to $752 million from $606 million, supported by a 36% rise in mortgage banking revenue. Net interest income grew to $1.76 billion from $1.73 billion. The allowance for loan losses fell to 1.58% of loans outstanding, reflecting improved credit quality. Shares rose 1% in premarket trading amid easing tariff concerns and expectations of U.S. rate cuts.

Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) -0.98%

Charles Schwab beat third-quarter profit expectations as client assets reached a record $11.59 trillion. Net income rose 67% to $2.36 billion, or $1.26 per share, while adjusted EPS of $1.31 exceeded analyst forecasts of $1.25. Total client assets increased 17%, with core net new assets of $137.5 billion. Trading revenue jumped 25% to $995 million, reflecting strong volumes and derivatives activity. Net revenue rose 27% to a record $6.14 billion. CEO Rick Wurster highlighted organic growth, adoption of wealth solutions, and favorable macroeconomic tailwinds as drivers. Shares gained 2.9% premarket.

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