Disney flags prolonged YouTube TV blackout as weak linear TV offsets strong streaming gains

South Africa

South African equities strengthened, with the Top 40 up 1.05% to 106,584.5 points and the All Share index rising 1.01% to 114,045.6 points, as markets welcomed the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement, which delivered a third consecutive primary surplus and signalled progress in fiscal consolidation under Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana. Nonetheless, risks persist given revenue shortfalls, large refinancing needs and commodity-price sensitivity. Corporate activity intensified ahead of Cell C’s planned JSE listing, targeting up to R6.5 billion. Regulators also secured major concessions from global tech platforms, including a R688 million Google-YouTube media support package. China’s President Xi Jinping will skip the G20 summit, weakening diplomatic expectations.

Europe

European markets retreated, with the STOXX 600 down 0.6% as investors shifted focus to upcoming US economic data following the end of the country’s record government shutdown. Disappointing Siemens earnings and weaker sentiment pushed the DAX down 1.4% and the FTSE 100 lower by 1.1%. The UK reappointed Megan Greene to the BoE’s MPC, providing continuity as policymakers push inflation towards target. Eurozone industrial output rose just 0.2% in September, far below forecasts, while UK housing demand softened ahead of potential tax announcements in the November budget. 

United States

Wall Street posted its steepest one-day decline in over a month, led by sharp losses in Nvidia and other AI heavyweights as investors scaled back expectations of a December Fed rate cut. Mixed labour indicators—including falling retail job postings and private-sector job losses—added to uncertainty. The government’s reopening after a 43-day shutdown should restore delayed data releases, but recent policymaker comments highlighted persistent inflation concerns. Futures now imply a roughly 47% probability of a 25bp cut in December, down from 70% last week.

Asia

Asia-Pacific markets tracked US weakness, with technology shares under pressure as doubts grew over near-term Fed easing. China’s October activity data showed the slowest factory output and retail sales growth in over a year, underscoring persistent demand constraints and structural pressures on the US$19 trillion economy. New-home prices fell 0.5% month-on-month—the steepest decline in a year—reflecting the depth of the property downturn and the need for further policy stimulus. Authorities may need to intensify support measures as both external demand and domestic confidence remain fragile.

Currencies

The rand rallied strongly, briefly breaking below R17/$ for the first time since February 2023 as markets applauded South Africa’s renewed fiscal discipline and improved credibility following the budget update. Global currency moves were dominated by a weaker US dollar, which extended declines amid investor caution and delayed economic data releases after the government shutdown. Renewed volatility in US bonds and equities contributed to risk-off flows, with traders reducing the probability of a December rate cut. The dollar remains on track for a weekly fall.

Commodities

Gold edged higher and was on track for a weekly gain, supported by a softer US dollar though capped by hawkish Fed commentary. Oil prices rose more than 2% after a Ukrainian drone strike damaged facilities in Russia’s Novorossiysk port, amplifying supply-risk concerns. US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil are slowing tanker unloading and tightening availability ahead of the 21 November cut-off date, with JPMorgan noting that 1.4 million bpd of Russian crude is now held offshore. US crude inventories rose sharply by 6.4 million barrels, exceeding expectations.

Sanlam Limited (SLM) +0.62%

Sanlam delivered a resilient nine-month performance to 30 September 2025, with disciplined execution driving solid growth across key metrics. Net results from financial services rose 17% (19% normalised), while net operational earnings increased 14% (16% normalised). New business volumes grew 11% overall, supported by a 1% rise in life insurance volumes and a steady 2.25% VNB margin. Regulatory and economic solvency ratios remained robust at 167% and 184%. Despite tariff and geopolitical pressures, improving energy stability and moderating inflation are supporting a gradual recovery in South African household income.

Brimstone Investment Corporation Limited (BRT) 0.00%

Brimstone reported a 22.8% decline in intrinsic NAV to R2.07 billion for the quarter ended 30 September 2025, reflecting softer valuations across key holdings. Intrinsic NAV per share fell to 860 cents, with ordinary and ‘N’ shares trading at discounts of 50.5% and 47.5%, respectively. Notable movements included lower market values in Oceana, Phuthuma Nathi and MTN Zakhele Futhi, partly offset by gains in FPG Property Fund, Aon Re Africa and FPG Investments. The portfolio remains diversified, though elevated discounts highlight continued caution in the broader South African investment landscape.

Brait PLC (BAT) -2.33%

Brait delivered a stable interim performance for the six months to 30 September 2025, supported by solid operational momentum across its key assets. Virgin Active reported broad-based revenue growth and a 45% rise in LTM EBITDA, reflecting ongoing estate upgrades and stronger member engagement. Premier delivered another robust period, with revenue up 6% and EBITDA up 14%, aided by strong MillBake performance and continued de-gearing. New Look improved profitability despite weaker UK retail conditions. Brait’s NAV per share increased 5% to R3.21, with liquidity of R710 million and all covenants met.

Walt Disney Company (DIS) -7.75%

Disney flagged a potentially prolonged carriage dispute with YouTube TV, heightening concerns over its declining linear-TV segment as its networks were pulled from the platform on 30 October. Quarterly revenue of US$22.5 billion missed expectations, with traditional TV profit down 21% and ESPN also softer, offsetting strong gains in streaming and parks. Streaming earnings rose 39% and Disney+ and Hulu added 12.5 million subscribers. Disney increased its dividend 50% and doubled its buyback plan for FY26, while exploring AI-driven content tools to enhance platform engagement.

Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) -3.25%

Applied Materials warned that tighter US export controls will reduce China-related chip equipment spending in 2026, with the company unable to supply key memory and legacy chip tools to Chinese customers. China’s share of revenue has already fallen from nearly 40% to the mid-20% range, with foreign rivals filling demand. Despite a forecast US$600 million revenue hit, suspension of the “affiliate rule” will re-enable similar full-year sales, aiding a stronger second half. Q1 revenue is guided at US$6.85 billion, and adjusted EPS at US$2.18, both slightly ahead of expectations.

Pfizer Inc. (PFE) -0.31%

Pfizer completed its up to US$10 billion acquisition of Metsera after securing shareholder approval, securing a meaningful entry into the rapidly expanding obesity-treatment market. The deal diversifies Pfizer beyond its declining COVID-19 franchise and supports future growth ahead of major patent expiries. Metsera’s lead candidate, MET-097i, a once-monthly GLP-1 injection showing up to 14.1% weight loss in mid-stage trials, positions Pfizer to compete with market leaders Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. The acquisition is expected to bolster Pfizer’s pipeline from 2028 onward as it seeks to offset US$17–18 billion in annual patent-loss revenue.

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