JPMorgan tops Q4 expectations on trading strength, deal fees lag

South African Market Summary

South African equities advanced, with the All Share Index rising 0.68% to 120,964.38 points and the Top 40 gaining 0.73% to 113,135.92 points. Sentiment was supported by progress on trade and regulatory fronts. The US House approved a bill to extend AGOA for a further three years, providing renewed certainty for exporters and investors, while negotiations on a bilateral trade deal continue despite strained diplomatic relations. Separately, South Africa was removed from the EU’s high-risk jurisdictions list following its 2025 FATF grey-list exit, easing compliance risk perceptions and supporting capital flows.

 European Market Summary

European equities edged lower, with the STOXX 600 slipping 0.1% to 610.44 points, retreating from an intraday record as construction stocks lagged and investors digested mixed corporate updates alongside US inflation data. Despite the pullback, the index has started 2026 strongly, outperforming the S&P 500, largely driven by defence-sector gains amid persistent geopolitical tensions. In the UK, business confidence weakened further, with the ICAEW index falling to -11.1 in Q4. France’s economy likely grew at least 0.2% in Q4, supported by aerospace and defence activity.

American Market Summary

US equities closed lower, led by a sharp sell-off in financials as renewed concern emerged around President Donald Trump’s proposal to cap credit-card interest rates at 10%. Comments from JPMorgan executives, including CEO Jamie Dimon, warned the policy could pressure bank profitability and restrict consumer credit availability. Financial stocks extended losses, with Visa, Mastercard and JPMorgan all materially weaker, dragging the sector lower. An in-line December inflation print helped limit broader downside by reinforcing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. JPMorgan’s results informally marked the start of the fourth-quarter earnings season.

Asian Market Summary

Asian equities advanced, led by gains in Japan, as investors positioned ahead of a potential snap election that could pave the way for additional fiscal stimulus. Currency markets remained volatile amid concerns over central bank independence, despite benign US inflation data. China reported a record $1.189 trillion trade surplus for 2025, underlining export resilience despite renewed US tariff pressure under President Donald Trump. Firms are increasingly redirecting trade towards emerging markets to offset weaker domestic demand. In Japan, manufacturer confidence eased to a six-month low, signalling softer global demand conditions.

Commodity Market Summary

Oil prices paused after four sessions of gains as Venezuela resumed crude exports, offsetting rising geopolitical risk linked to potential Iranian supply disruptions amid civil unrest. Two supertankers reportedly loaded Venezuelan crude, signalling a reversal of earlier production cuts, while US API data showed a sharp build in crude, gasoline and distillate inventories. Attention now turns to official EIA figures. In contrast, precious metals strengthened, with gold hitting a record high and silver surging above key levels as benign US inflation reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and sustained safe-haven demand.

Currency Market Summary

The South African rand weakened as investors locked in gains following a prior-session rally driven by surging gold prices. Currency sentiment shifted as the US dollar recovered, trading near a one-month high after December CPI data broadly met expectations, reinforcing views that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at its next meeting. The dollar index rose 0.3% to 99.18, retracing earlier losses triggered by political pressure on the Fed. Ongoing concerns around central bank independence and policy credibility continued to inject volatility into emerging-market currencies.

Tharisa plc (THA) +3.59%

Tharisa reported a seasonally softer but operationally resilient start to FY2026, with Q1 PGM production of 38.8 koz and chrome concentrate output of 349.4 kt reflecting planned mine sequencing and adverse weather. Encouragingly, recoveries improved materially year on year, while PGM pricing strengthened to an average US$2,208/oz, supporting margins. The balance sheet remains robust with a net cash position of US$47.0 million, despite higher capital support for Karo. Management remains constructive on PGM markets and reaffirmed full-year production guidance.

Primary Health Properties PLC (PHP) -0.88%

Primary Health Properties delivered a transformational year, completing its merger with Assura to create a £6 billion healthcare REIT with enhanced scale, diversification and income security. Early integration progress has been strong, with 60% of targeted £9 million synergies already delivered and a robust contracted rent roll of £342 million. Rental growth momentum improved through rent reviews and asset management, while balance sheet refinancing provides £552 million of liquidity headroom at a 3.7% cost of debt. PHP declared a 2.8% higher interim dividend, marking 30 consecutive years of dividend growth.

Shuka Minerals PLC (SKA) +10.00%

Shuka Minerals raised £1.0 million through a placing to fund the imminent acquisition and development of the Kabwe Zinc Mine in Zambia, alongside proceeds from the GMI loan. Completion of the Kabwe transaction will deliver 100% ownership of a globally significant zinc asset, supported by a structured 2026 exploration and development programme aimed at upgrading the resource. Management highlighted limited dilution, near-term operational progress at Kabwe and optional cash flow from the Rukwa coal project, positioning the Company for value creation through disciplined capital deployment.

Trustco Group Holdings Limited (TTO) 0.00%

Trustco issued a further cautionary announcement as its board continues to evaluate the potential delisting of the Company’s securities. The assessment now incorporates the JSE’s forthcoming Simplified Listings Requirements, expected to take effect from 16 February 2026, and their potential implications for Trustco and shareholders. The board is reviewing whether the revised framework alters the strategic rationale for a delisting and will communicate its conclusions in due course. Shareholders are advised to continue exercising caution when dealing in Trustco shares pending further guidance.

JPMorgan Chase & Company (JPM) -4.19%

JPMorgan Chase delivered fourth-quarter earnings above expectations, driven by strong trading performance amid heightened market volatility, although investment banking fees disappointed. Markets revenue rose 17%, with equity trading up 40%, reflecting robust prime brokerage activity, while fixed income advanced 7%. Net interest income increased 7% to $25.1 billion, underpinning earnings of $5.23 per share. Management highlighted US economic resilience and reiterated support for an independent Federal Reserve. Shares eased despite the stock’s strong 2025 outperformance, as investors weighed softer deal revenues against solid underlying momentum.

Bayer AG (BAYN) -2.25%

Bayer outlined a medium-term recovery plan for its pharmaceuticals division, targeting a return to mid-single-digit sales growth by 2027 and operating margins of around 30% by 2030. Management expects margin expansion to begin from 2028 as the drag from Xarelto patent expiry fades by 2026. Growth is set to be driven by newer therapies, including Nubeqa, Kerendia and Beyonttra, alongside renewed momentum from anticoagulant Asundexian. Despite persistent investor scepticism, Bayer reaffirmed its 2025 guidance and expressed confidence in a sustained turnaround.

Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) -2.39%

Delta forecast earnings growth of around 20% in 2026, driven by resilient demand from higher-income and corporate travellers, even as economy-class demand remains subdued. The carrier continues to pivot towards premium products, which now account for nearly 60% of revenue, supporting margins despite weakness in lower-yield segments. Management guided to 2026 adjusted earnings of $6.50–$7.50 per share and free cash flow of $3–$4 billion. A new Boeing 787 order reinforces Delta’s premium-led international growth strategy amid an increasingly bifurcated consumer backdrop.

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