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market commentary

South Africa

Shares of South African miners surged as gold prices topped $4,000 an ounce for the first time, lifting Gold Fields, AngloGold Ashanti, and Harmony Gold by 2–3% on the JSE. The JSE All Share Index closed up 1.39% at 110,970.72 points, while the JSE Top 40 rose 1.52% to end at 103,889.97 points. Speaking at the Johannesburg Mining Indaba, Anglo American CEO Duncan Wanblad criticised two decades of unsupportive exploration policy, highlighting the country’s underexploited mining potential. Deputy Finance Minister Ashor Sarupen warned municipalities, excluding Cape Town, were overburdened by escalating administrative costs, under-investing in infrastructure, and failing service delivery. Johannesburg and other municipalities face recurring water, electricity, and refuse collection issues, prompting violent protests and underscoring management shortcomings.

European Union

European equities reached record highs on Wednesday, driven by strong French and Spanish stock gains and a steel sector rally after the EU announced cuts to steel import quotas. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.8%, with French stocks up 1.1% and Spain reaching levels last seen in 2007. Germany’s DAX closed near a three-month peak. Banking stocks led gains, boosted by UK lender Lloyds amid a smaller-than-expected motor finance compensation plan. Macro optimism emerged as Germany lifted its 2025 growth forecast to 0.2%, and French political uncertainty eased following tentative comments from caretaker PM Sebastien Lecornu.

United States

U.S. equities climbed, led by technology shares, as investors awaited Federal Reserve minutes for interest rate guidance amid the ongoing government shutdown. The Nasdaq outperformed, lifted by AI-focused megacaps, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit all-time closing highs; the Dow was flat. Gold surged above $4,000 an ounce as investors sought safe-haven assets amid geopolitical and domestic uncertainty. FOMC minutes revealed a divided committee, cautious of inflation but open to easing policy later this year. Investors now focus on the upcoming third-quarter earnings season for direction in the absence of fresh economic data.

Asia

Asian markets rose, led by AI-driven momentum and HSBC’s Hang Seng Bank privatization, which lifted shares 29.5% and valued the bank at over $37 billion. Tata Group faced internal boardroom scrutiny, with Indian ministers intervening to prevent disputes from affecting the $180-billion business empire. Indonesia engaged with China to restructure debt for its $7.3 billion high-speed rail project. Japanese real wages fell for the eighth consecutive month in August, highlighting inflation outpacing nominal pay and continued pressure on household purchasing power across the region.

Currencies

The U.S. dollar remained steady, poised for its strongest weekly gain in nearly a year, supported by a weak yen following Japan’s political leadership change. The yen fluctuated after Sanae Takaichi became head of the Liberal Democratic Party, positioning her to become Japan’s first female prime minister and spurring expectations of increased spending and loose monetary policy. Meanwhile, the euro remained subdued amid France’s political crisis after PM Sebastien Lecornu’s resignation. Political instability in both countries, alongside the U.S. government shutdown, has driven investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold.

Commodities

Gold eased after reaching a record $4,000 per ounce, as investors booked profits amid economic and geopolitical uncertainties. Silver hit a record high, buoyed by gold’s rally and safe-haven demand. Oil prices declined after Israel and Hamas agreed on the first phase of a Gaza ceasefire, easing Middle East tensions, while a stronger U.S. dollar weighed on commodities. The ceasefire deal, including hostage release plans, reduced the perceived risk of broader regional conflict, supporting market stability in energy and precious metals markets following recent geopolitical risk-driven volatility.

local commentary

Anglo American plc (AGL) +1.27%

Anglo American reaffirmed its strategic rationale and synergy targets following Teck Resources’ operational review and updated outlook. The review’s outcomes align broadly with Anglo American’s due diligence ahead of the proposed merger announced on 9 September 2025. The company supports Teck’s more measured ramp-up of the Quebrada Blanca (QB) operation, citing similar successful experience at Quellaveco. Anglo American sees long-term value in QB and the Collahuasi adjacency, maintaining expectations for US$1.4 billion in annual EBITDA uplift and US$800 million in recurring pre-tax synergies. The merger is positioned to create a stronger, more resilient business with enhanced shareholder value.

FirstRand Limited (FSR) -3.59%

FirstRand issued a voluntary update following the UK Financial Conduct Authority’s (FCA) 7 October 2025 consultative paper on proposed redress measures for motor finance commission practices. The group stated that the scheme appears to extend beyond what it considers proportionate or reasonable and noted concerns over presumptions of unfairness that may overlook recent UK Supreme Court guidance requiring case-by-case assessment. FirstRand plans to engage with the FCA promptly to address these concerns and clarify apparent data inconsistencies. The group expects to update shareholders once its review concludes, potentially before the FCA’s six-week consultation period ends.

Alphamin Resources Corporation (APH) +2.43%

Alphamin reported a strong Q3 2025 performance, with contained tin production rising 26% quarter-on-quarter to 5,190 tonnes and sales up 12% to 5,143 tonnes. Full-year production guidance was raised to 18,000–18,500 tonnes from 17,500 tonnes, reflecting improved operational momentum. Q3 EBITDA is guided at US$96 million, up 28% from Q2’s US$75 million, supported by higher output and stable pricing. The company paid an interim FY2025 dividend of CAD0.07 per share on 15 September and received external assay results from Mpama North and South drilling. Alphamin continues to consolidate its position as a leading global tin producer.

international commentary

 Salesforce (CRM) +0.29%

Salesforce announced a US$1 billion investment in Mexico over the next five years to expand operations and accelerate AI adoption. The funding will support a new Mexico City office and a Global Delivery Center serving customers across the Americas, reinforcing Mexico as a strategic AI and tech services hub. The company aims to create jobs, build AI expertise, and position Mexico as a consultancy centre for Latin America. The investment follows Salesforce’s rapid AI rollout, including its Agentforce platform, and coincides with a $20 billion expansion of its share buyback programme, despite recent guidance for Q3 revenue below analyst expectations.

HSBC (HSBA) +1.52%

HSBC announced plans to privatise its 63.5%-owned subsidiary, Hang Seng Bank, offering HK$155 per share for the remaining 36.5%, valuing the transaction at HK$106.1 billion (US$13.6 billion) and the bank at US$37 billion. The offer represents a 30.3% premium to Hang Seng’s prior close and aligns with HSBC’s strategy to deepen its leadership in core Asian markets. CEO Georges Elhedery said the move reflects confidence in Hong Kong’s long-term prospects, despite near-term property sector weakness. HSBC will pause share buybacks for three quarters to fund the deal, which is expected to reduce its CET1 ratio by around 125 basis points to 14.6%.

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