Man United ups core profit forecast to £180–190m on ticket boost despite Q1 loss and no Europa next season

Local Market Commentary

South African equities ended marginally lower on Friday, with the All Share index slipping 0.05% to 96,366.1 and the Top 40 falling 0.22% to 88,597.1, as investor sentiment remained subdued ahead of key economic data. Net foreign reserves improved to $64.804 billion in May, indicating steady capital positioning despite broader market volatility. Attention this week turns to the upcoming manufacturing and mining output figures, which will offer investors a clearer gauge of industrial momentum amid broader signs of economic strain. Meanwhile, a worsening outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in livestock is prompting the government to accelerate vaccination efforts, raising concerns for agricultural exports and the downstream impact on consumer inflation and food supply chains.

European Market Commentary

European equities held steady on Friday, with the STOXX 600 flat at 551.9 as investors stayed cautious ahead of critical U.S. employment data and amid persistent global trade frictions. The ECB's widely expected rate cut was met with a subdued market response, as President Lagarde's forward guidance signalled a nearing end to monetary easing, prompting a reassessment of the eurozone’s rate path. UK stocks outperformed, buoyed by easing recession fears following positive U.S. job data and broad gains across sectors. Market participants are now looking toward the upcoming UK fiscal review on 11 June, where over £2 trillion in public expenditure will be allocated—potentially reshaping sectoral opportunities depending on policy priorities.

U.S. Market Commentary

U.S. markets closed higher on Friday, with the S&P 500 breaching the 6,000 mark, driven by upbeat job numbers that helped ease fears of economic deceleration. Tesla led a rebound in tech, recovering from prior losses and contributing to broader strength in growth stocks. The U.S. added 139,000 nonfarm jobs in May—surpassing consensus expectations—while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, reinforcing confidence in the labour market. Traders are now pricing in a delayed interest rate cut cycle, with the next potential move pushed out to September. Markets are also watching closely as U.S. officials prepare for trade negotiations with China in London, with potential implications for risk sentiment and supply chain outlooks.

Asia Market Commentary

Asian markets advanced on Monday as investors positioned ahead of U.S.-China trade discussions and absorbed China’s latest inflation data. China's consumer prices dipped 0.1% year-on-year in May, reflecting muted domestic demand despite ongoing policy stimulus, while exports to the U.S. plunged 34.5%, underscoring the strain from trade tensions. Revised GDP figures from Japan showed a smaller-than-expected contraction of 0.2% for Q1 2025, lending some reassurance about regional stability. Meanwhile, China’s overall exports rose 4.8% in May, missing forecasts slightly, while a sharp 3.4% drop in imports highlighted underlying softness in consumption—a growing concern for foreign investors focused on Asia’s demand cycle and trade balance sustainability.

Currency Market Commentary

The rand held steady on Friday, restrained by a firmer dollar following robust U.S. employment figures that bolstered confidence in the resilience of the American economy. Sterling ended the week stronger, supported by a relatively robust UK economic backdrop and investor anticipation of the forthcoming fiscal spending review. Meanwhile, the dollar was broadly stable on Monday, underpinned by a reassessment of rate cut expectations and a cautious stance ahead of pivotal U.S.-China trade talks in London. With China facing deflationary pressure and the U.S. grappling with persistent trade-related uncertainty, FX markets are recalibrating risk premiums across major pairs, especially in light of evolving macro narratives and central bank policy divergence.

Commodity Market Commentary

Gold prices eased on Monday as optimism around renewed U.S.-China trade talks curbed safe-haven demand, while stronger-than-anticipated U.S. jobs data reduced the urgency for Federal Reserve easing. Oil prices held steady, extending last week's gains as markets await outcomes from London’s trade dialogue. In the rare earths market, China’s exports surged 23% in May to a 12-month high, though select export controls—particularly on rare earth magnets—have disrupted global manufacturing, notably in Europe’s auto and semiconductor sectors. While headline shipments appear robust, analysts caution that the full impact of targeted curbs remains unclear, with a comprehensive breakdown due on 20 June expected to provide further market clarity.

Mr Price Group Limited (MRP) +1.33%

Mr Price Group posted a resilient performance for the 52 weeks to 29 March 2025, with revenue rising 7.9% to R40.9 billion and market share up 50bps. A gross margin uplift of 80bps to 40.5% supported record operating profit of R5.8 billion and a 20bps increase in operating margin to 14.2%. Diluted HEPS grew 10.1% to 1 379.3 cents, accelerating to 12.1% in H2. The Group opened 184 new stores, added 4.3% weighted space, and maintained robust cash sales at 89.3%, with credit trends improving post interest rate cuts. Apparel led growth with 7.9% sales growth and further market share gains, while Homeware and Telecoms segments recovered strongly in H2. A final dividend of 593.5 cents per share was declared, up 12.7%, reinforcing confidence in its fashion-value and omni-channel strategy.

The Foschini Group Limited (TFG) +3.13%

TFG delivered a record performance for the year ended 31 March 2025, with revenue up 4.1% to R62.6 billion and online sales growing to 12.0% of turnover (FY2024: 9.9%). Gross profit increased 6.7% to R28.8 billion, with gross margin up 150bps to 49.4%. Group operating profit rose 4.4% to R6.2 billion, with TFG Africa contributing strongly through a 12.3% operating profit uplift. Basic EPS rose 4.9% to 980.6 cents and HEPS improved 4.6% to 1 015.6 cents. A final dividend of 230.0 cents per share was declared, up 15.0% year-on-year.

Fortress Real Estate Investments Limited Class B (FFB) +1.25%

Fortress reported solid trading momentum post-1H2025 across its R50 billion diversified logistics and retail portfolio. South African logistics vacancies declined to 0.9%, with 117,915m² of new developments 72.7% pre-let. Retail turnover grew 4.0% like-for-like with stable 0.9% vacancies, supported by notable leases including Suzuki at Longlake and Crusader Logistics at Eastport. The Group realised R1.44 billion in non-core asset disposals and reaffirmed FY2025 distributable earnings guidance of R1.93 billion, targeting 6.0%–7.5% growth in FY2026. European logistics assets also showed progress, with new lettings in Poland and sustained tenant demand reinforcing growth visibility.

Fairvest (FTA) 0.00%

Fairvest delivered a solid interim result for the six months ended 31 March 2025, with distribution per B share up 8.8% and a maintained 100% pay-out ratio. The Group declared distributions of 69.66 cents per A share and 23.10 cents per B share, guiding 8.0%–10.0% B share growth for the full year. Like-for-like net property income increased 5.1%, while vacancies were low at 5.5% and the loan-to-value ratio improved to 31.8%, underscoring sound capital management.

Manchester United Plc (MANU) +18.83%

Manchester United raised its annual core profit forecast to £180–190 million—up 21–28% year-on-year and returning to pre-pandemic levels—driven by a 50% surge in ticket sales (£44.5 million) and strong Europa League performance. Despite this, the club posted a net loss of £2.7 million for Q1 (versus £71.5 million loss a year earlier) and confirmed it will miss out on European competition next season after a Europa League final defeat to Spurs and its worst Premier League finish since 1974. CEO Omar Berrada acknowledged the need for improvement, while investors face the prospect of reduced broadcast income and heightened pressure on commercial performance to offset future revenue gaps.

Geely Automobile Holdings Limited (175) -0.88%

Geely chairman Li Shufu highlighted “serious overcapacity” in the global automotive sector, announcing the group’s decision to halt building new plants or expanding existing capacity. Speaking at an industry forum in Chongqing, Li’s remarks reflect ongoing pressures within China’s fiercely competitive auto market, where price wars have pushed manufacturers to seek growth abroad. Geely, which owns Geely Auto, Zeekr, and Volvo, is pursuing strategic international expansion via a minority stake and use of Renault’s Brazilian facilities, though regulatory approvals in China have faced delays. This cautious stance signals a strategic pivot focused on optimising current assets amid market saturation and regulatory challenges.

Do you prefer a full in-depth report you can read offline? Click here to download the full report.