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Market Commentary

South African Market Summary

South African equities closed weaker, with the All Share Index down 0.79% to 116,989.26 points and the Top 40 Index falling 0.89% to 109,039.61 points, reflecting soft domestic sentiment. Manufacturing conditions deteriorated further in December, as the seasonally adjusted PMI sponsored by Absa declined to 40.5 from 42.0 in November, marking the weakest reading of 2025 amid sharp contractions in inventories and employment. Geopolitical risk also increased after BRICS naval forces gathered off Cape Town for joint exercises led by China, raising the risk of renewed US diplomatic pressure, according to the South African National Defence Force.

 European Market Summary

European markets were steady, with London’s FTSE 100 flat at 10,044.7 points after pausing from a record high earlier in the week, as weakness in oil and retail stocks was offset by gains in defence and financials. The mid-cap FTSE 250 also traded broadly unchanged near a four-year peak. UK housing data showed softer momentum, with prices rising just 0.3% year on year in December and falling 0.6% month on month, according to Halifax. In Europe, German industrial orders surprised to the upside, while euro zone inflation expectations remained anchored near the European Central Bank’s 2% target.

American Market Summary

Wall Street closed mixed as weakness in large-cap technology stocks offset strength in defence names. Nvidia, Broadcom and Microsoft weighed on the S&P 500 technology index as investors reassessed stretched AI-related valuations, while defence stocks advanced after President Donald Trump called for a US$1.5 trillion military budget. Alphabet rose after overtaking Apple in market capitalisation. Macro focus shifted to labour market data ahead of nonfarm payrolls, while Fitch Ratings upgraded its US growth outlook.

Asian Market Summary

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed as investors assessed regional macro signals, led by China and Japan. China’s annual CPI accelerated to a 34-month high in December, but subdued full-year inflation and ongoing producer deflation reinforced expectations of further policy support to address weak domestic demand, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. In Japan, household spending surprised to the upside in November, rising 2.9% year on year and signalling a tentative recovery in private consumption, data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications showed. Overall, the data highlighted divergent growth dynamics across the region.

Currency Market Summary

The rand weakened for a second consecutive session against a firmer US dollar, reflecting cautious risk sentiment ahead of key macro catalysts. The dollar index rose, extending a third straight daily gain as markets awaited the December nonfarm payrolls report and a pending US Supreme Court ruling on President Donald Trump’s emergency tariff powers. Analysts cautioned that while the jobs data may clear recent data gaps caused by the government shutdown, it is unlikely to materially shift near-term rate expectations. Sterling also declined for a third day amid softer global risk appetite.

Commodity Market Summary

Oil prices advanced for a second consecutive session and were on track for a third weekly gain, driven by heightened uncertainty over Venezuelan supply and rising concerns around Iranian output. Competitive bids from major traders and producers to export Venezuelan crude, alongside stronger US involvement in the country’s oil sector, added to supply risk. Gold traded flat as investors awaited US nonfarm payrolls data for policy signals from the Federal Reserve. In corporate news, Rio Tinto confirmed early-stage talks to acquire Glencore, highlighting accelerating consolidation as miners scale exposure to copper critical to the energy transition.

Local Commentary

Curro Holdings Limited (COH) 0.00%

Curro announced the cash settlement mechanics for fractional entitlements arising from its Scheme of Arrangement following the acquisition by the Jannie Mouton Stigting and subsequent delisting from the JSE. Where shareholder entitlements resulted in fractions of Capitec or PSG Financial Services shares, these were rounded down, with the residual settled in cash. Cash values were calculated using the VWAP on the last day to trade plus one business day, less 10%, in line with JSE Listings Requirements. Payments will be effected on 12 January 2026.

Schroder European Real Estate Investment Trust Plc (SCD) 0.00%

Schroder European Real Estate Investment Trust reported a stable independent valuation of its property portfolio at €194.0 million as at 31 December 2025, underscoring the resilience of its assets amid a mixed real estate backdrop. Valuations were supported by continued growth at the Berlin DIY asset and rental-driven uplifts across selected industrial properties, offsetting pressure from higher discount rates at Alkmaar and lease-term erosion at the Apeldoorn data centre. Office assets in core European cities remained stable, reflecting disciplined asset management and tenant quality.

International Commentary

Rio Tinto (RIO) -1.36%

Rio Tinto confirmed early-stage discussions to acquire some or all of Glencore in a potential all-share transaction that could create the world’s largest mining company, with a combined valuation near US$207 billion. The talks reflect intensifying consolidation as miners scale exposure to copper, driven by energy transition and AI demand. Details remain limited, with no certainty on structure, governance or premiums. Under UK takeover rules, Rio Tinto must clarify its intentions by 5 February, while market reaction has been mixed.

CrowdStrike (CRWD) -3.14%

CrowdStrike announced the acquisition of identity security start-up SGNL for US$740 million, strengthening its capabilities against AI-driven cyber threats. The deal enhances CrowdStrike’s “continuous identity” offering, addressing rising risks as organisations grant autonomous access to AI agents. SGNL’s real-time identity platform will integrate into the Falcon ecosystem, supporting human, machine and AI identities. The transaction, funded primarily in cash, builds on CrowdStrike’s existing identity business, which already generates significant recurring revenue, and aligns with its strategy to automate security operations through AI.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) -0.84%

Johnson & Johnson reached an agreement with the Trump administration to reduce U.S. drug prices in exchange for exemptions from prospective tariffs. While financial terms and product coverage were not disclosed, the deal includes participation in the TrumpRx.gov platform and providing Medicaid access at prices comparable with other developed markets. The agreement aligns with broader efforts to curb U.S. prescription costs. J&J also reaffirmed its US$55 billion domestic investment plan, including two new manufacturing facilities, with further U.S. investments likely later this year.

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