AMD flags softer Q1 growth as Nvidia gap keeps investors cautious

South African Market Summary

South African equities retreated, with the FTSE/JSE All Share Index closing 1.88% lower at 118,539.92 and the FTSE/JSE Top 40 Index down 2.01% to 110,515.90, tracking weaker global risk sentiment. Trade policy developments drew focus as government advanced a China–Africa agreement to secure expanded duty-free access for local exports, supporting diversification beyond the US. Corporate updates were mixed: MTN confirmed advanced negotiations to increase its IHS stake, while ArcelorMittal South Africa narrowed losses on cost relief and restructuring, highlighting ongoing balance-sheet repair across cyclical sectors.

European Market Summary

European equities retreated, with the STOXX 600 down 1% as investors assessed an unchanged ECB policy stance and mixed corporate earnings. Banks and resource groups dominated reporting, underscoring sensitivity to macro uncertainty and commodity pricing. The ECB provided little forward guidance but is reportedly exploring broader euro liquidity access to enhance the currency’s global role, a strategic response to shifting perceptions of US policy stability. Markets remain caught between resilient earnings pockets and cautious monetary signals, leaving sentiment fragile as investors weigh growth durability against geopolitical and policy risks.

US Market Summary

US equities fell sharply, led by technology, as concerns mounted over escalating AI capital expenditure and its near-term return profile. The Nasdaq slid to multi-month lows as Alphabet outlined aggressive spending plans, intensifying scrutiny of sector margins. Software and data-services stocks extended declines, dragging the S&P software index lower for a seventh session, while volatility spiked. Labour data signalled cooling momentum, with jobless claims rising and vacancies easing. The combination of valuation pressure, investment uncertainty and softer macro indicators reinforced a more defensive tone across US equity markets.

Asian Market Summary

Asian markets followed Wall Street lower, with South Korea’s Kospi tumbling amid heavy exposure to global technology and semiconductor demand cycles. Investor sentiment remains fragile as AI-related volatility reverberates through hardware supply chains. In Japan, Bank of Japan commentary kept rate-hike expectations alive, with policymakers signalling that underlying inflation is approaching the 2% target. The prospect of gradual policy normalisation contrasts with regional growth concerns, creating cross-currents for capital flows. Markets are balancing tightening signals in Japan against broader cyclical uncertainty across export-oriented Asian economies.

Currency Market Summary

Currency markets saw renewed dollar strength as risk aversion and shifting US rate expectations supported the greenback. The rand weakened back above 16 per dollar, reflecting pressure on emerging-market assets amid global equity volatility. The dollar’s resilience followed expectations that prospective Federal Reserve leadership may favour a cautious approach to rate cuts. Meanwhile, the yen firmed on domestic political focus and ongoing policy normalisation debate. Broader FX moves illustrate how AI-driven equity swings and interest-rate uncertainty are reinforcing demand for defensive currency positioning globally.

Commodity Market Summary

Commodity markets reflected diverging themes. South Africa’s Industrial Development Corporation backed a domestic rare earths project aligned with EU supply-chain diversification, reinforcing strategic mineral demand narratives. Oil prices drifted lower as Middle East supply concerns eased ahead of US–Iran talks, reducing near-term risk premiums tied to Strait of Hormuz flows. Precious metals rebounded modestly but remained on track for weekly declines as a firmer US dollar offset safe-haven demand. The landscape underscores how geopolitics, currency moves and energy diplomacy continue to shape cross-asset commodity pricing dynamics.

Valterra Platinum Limited (VAL) -5.07%

Valterra Platinum reported its strongest quarter of 2025, with improved safety, higher own-mined output and increased refined production supporting a 4% rise in sales volumes. Operational stability at Amandelbult and stronger grades at Mogalakwena lifted metal-in-concentrate output, while processing gains enabled work-in-progress reductions. The realised PGM basket price rose sharply year on year, enhancing revenue momentum. Full-year production exceeded guidance, and 2026 output targets remain unchanged at 3.0–3.4 million ounces, signalling confidence in sustained operational consistency and disciplined capital allocation.

Anglo American Plc (AGL) -4.88%

Anglo American delivered a solid fourth quarter, with strong performances in copper and premium iron ore underpinning full-year guidance delivery. Copper output of 169,500 tonnes declined year on year on lower grades at Quellaveco and Collahuasi, partly offset by improved grades and plant performance at Los Bronces. Premium iron ore rose 6% to 15.1Mt, while manganese increased 22%. Rough diamond and steelmaking coal volumes fell on maintenance, disposals and weather impacts. Management reiterated portfolio simplification and medium-term copper growth, supported by disciplined capital allocation and operational stability.

Kumba Iron Ore Limited (KIO) +2.50%

Kumba Iron Ore reported a resilient fourth-quarter performance, with production rising 10% to 8.6Mt and full-year output edging 1% higher to 36.1Mt. Sales volumes dipped in Q4 but increased 2% for the year, supported by logistics collaboration and stable export channels. The company achieved a realised FOB price of US$95/wmt, a 12% premium to benchmark levels. Management remains focused on asset reliability, cost discipline and advancing the UHDMS project to support long-term margin resilience, operational sustainability and cash generation.

Hudaco Industries Limited (HDC) +1.69%

Hudaco Industries delivered steady earnings growth for the year to November 2025, with revenue rising 4.4% to R8.75bn and operating profit before fair value adjustments up 8.9%. Headline earnings per share increased 15.7% to 2,327 cents, supporting a 9.3% rise in total dividends to 1,120 cents per share. Net asset value per share strengthened 7.4%. The results were supported by resilient trading and margin discipline, while the group maintained a strong balance sheet and cash-generative profile.

MTN Group Limited (MTN) -5.76%

MTN issued a cautionary announcement regarding advanced discussions to acquire the 75% stake in IHS Holdings it does not already own, at a potential price near recent NYSE trading levels. No binding agreement has been reached, and there is no certainty the transaction will proceed. If concluded, the deal could materially affect MTN’s share price. Failing completion, management reiterated its intention to pursue alternative value-unlock options for the IHS investment within its disciplined capital allocation framework.

Sasol (SOL) -3.83%

Sasol expects sharply lower interim earnings for the six months to December 2025, with EPS declining 89–99% and HEPS down 29–40%, reflecting weaker Brent crude and chemicals pricing alongside R7.8bn of impairments. Adjusted EBITDA is forecast at R19–23bn, below the prior period, partly offset by stronger refining margins, improved volumes and cost discipline. Despite softer profitability, free cash flow is set to improve on reduced capital expenditure, underscoring management’s focus on balance-sheet resilience and capital allocation discipline.

Boxer Retail Limited (BOX) -3.38%

Boxer Retail reported turnover growth of 11.9% for the 48 weeks to 1 February 2026, with like-for-like sales up 3.9%, reflecting continued market share gains despite softer momentum late in the period. Growth moderated to 9.8% over the final 22 weeks amid a constrained Black Friday environment and a high prior base. Internal selling price inflation remained negative at -1.0%, signalling volume-led performance. Management expects full-year sales and trading profit growth to meet FY26 targets, supported by ongoing store expansion.

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) -4.42%

Amazon signalled a step-change in AI investment, outlining capital expenditure of roughly $200 billion for 2026, prompting an after-hours share price sell-off despite solid cloud growth. AWS revenue rose 24% to $35.6 billion, its strongest pace in over three years, yet investor focus shifted to margin pressure and elevated infrastructure spending. First-quarter operating income guidance of $16.5–$21.5 billion fell short of expectations, partly reflecting higher satellite and logistics costs. Advertising remained a standout, up 22%, while physical retail retrenchment and workforce reductions underscored continued portfolio optimisation.

Shell Plc (SHEL) -3.40%

Shell reported a softer fourth quarter, with net profit of $3.3 billion down 11% year on year as weaker oil and gas prices weighed on integrated gas, marketing and chemicals performance. Despite earnings pressure, the group maintained its $3.5 billion quarterly buyback and lifted the dividend 4%, pushing total shareholder distributions above its target payout range. Cash flow remained solid, while management highlighted ongoing cost reductions and portfolio optimisation to support medium-term production and LNG growth.

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