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Market Commentary

South African Market Summary

The South African market ended Friday marginally firmer, with the Top 40 index rising 0.23% to 108,231.56 points and the All Share index gaining 0.22% to 116,091.98 points. Looking ahead, domestic investors will focus on structural reforms in logistics and energy, where persistent weaknesses have constrained growth in Africa’s most industrialised economy. In corporate news earlier in the week, Aspen Pharmacare announced the sale of its major Asia-Pacific assets (excluding China) to Australian private equity firm BGH Capital for A$2.37 billion, with proceeds expected to support debt reduction and future capital deployment.

European Market Summary

European equities opened 2026 at record levels, extending last year’s strong rally as technology and defence stocks led gains. The STOXX 600 rose 0.7% to 596.14, edging closer to the 600 mark and securing a third consecutive weekly advance. The index delivered its best annual performance since 2021, supported by lower interest rates, German fiscal stimulus and rotation from stretched US mega-cap technology names. The FTSE 100 also broke through the 10,000-point level for the first time. However, eurozone manufacturing data indicated renewed contraction, signalling ongoing softness in industrial activity.

American Market Summary

US equities opened 2026 on a firmer footing, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 ending higher on Friday and breaking a four-day losing streak, supported by gains in semiconductor names including Nvidia and Intel, as well as Boeing. All three major indices delivered double-digit gains in 2025, marking a third consecutive positive year. Markets now turn their focus to upcoming labour-market data and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, with Chair Powell signalling caution on further rate cuts. Trade policy remains another key risk variable as investors monitor potential tariff adjustments under President Trump.

Asian Market Summary

Asia-Pacific markets opened the first full trading week of 2026 on a stronger footing, despite geopolitical tension following US military action in Venezuela. Investor sentiment was also shaped by monetary policy signals, with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda indicating that rate increases will continue if economic and price trends evolve in line with expectations. Japan’s economy sustained moderate recovery last year despite US tariff pressures. In China, services activity growth eased, with the RatingDog China General Services PMI edging down to 52.0 in December as new business softened and export demand slipped back into contraction.

Currency Market Summary

The rand began the new year on a steady footing in thin holiday trade, consolidating a strong 2025 in which it appreciated nearly 13% against the US dollar – its largest annual gain since 2009 and its first yearly rise since 2019. The rebound reflected improved fiscal discipline, moderating inflation and firmer precious-metal prices. By contrast, the dollar opened the first full trading week of 2026 stronger, firming to multi-week highs against the euro and yen as investors shifted focus to upcoming US macro data and its implications for Federal Reserve policy.

Commodity Market Summary

Oil prices edged higher on Monday as investors weighed potential supply risks following political upheaval in Venezuela after the United States seized President Nicolas Maduro. However, reports indicated that PDVSA’s production and refining operations were unaffected, reinforcing expectations of a well-supplied physical market. Gold prices moved higher as geopolitical tensions intensified, prompting renewed safe-haven demand, with other precious metals also firmer. Investors continue to balance risk-premium effects against broader demand dynamics and the evolving macroeconomic policy backdrop.

Local Commentary

Astoria Investments Limited (ARA) 0.00%

Astoria confirmed the closing prices applicable to the unbundling of 7,447,473 Goldrush Preference Shares (GRSP), distributed at a ratio of 12 GRSP shares for every 100 Astoria shares held. As at the record date of 2 January 2026, Astoria shares closed at R8.98 per share, while the GRSP distribution shares closed at R6.95 per share. The Astoria price reflects the closing level prior to the suspension of trading on 29 December 2025. Astoria maintains primary listings on the Stock Exchange of Mauritius and the JSE Alternative Exchange.

Novus Holdings Limited (NVS) -1.69%

Novus has advised that the Takeover Regulation Panel has ruled that Numus Capital is acting as a concert party in relation to Novus’ mandatory offer for Mustek. As a result, the cash offer consideration must increase from R13.00 to R15.41 per Mustek share, reflecting a Numus-managed hedge fund trade executed in November 2024. Novus has stated that it fundamentally disagrees with the ruling and intends to appeal to the Takeover Special Committee. As at 22 December 2025, Novus and its concert parties collectively hold approximately 60.25% of Mustek’s issued share capital.

iOCO Limited (IOC) +0.94%

iOCO reported that since 1 August 2025 it has repurchased 4,292,027 shares, representing approximately 0.7% of issued share capital, with all repurchased shares held as treasury shares. Total treasury holdings now amount to 6,378,634 shares. The Board confirmed that the repurchase was funded from available cash resources and reduced cash balances by R9.38 million, with no material financial impact elsewhere. Directors further confirmed that the Group remains solvent and liquid, with sufficient working capital and capital headroom to support strategic objectives. Following the transaction, 123,323,222 shares remain available under the current general repurchase authority.

International Commentary

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) -2.59%

Tesla ceded its position as the world’s largest electric-vehicle maker to China’s BYD after annual deliveries fell for a second consecutive year, reflecting intensifying competition, the expiry of US tax credits and growing brand pushback. Tesla delivered 1.64 million vehicles in 2025, down from 1.79 million in 2024, with fourth-quarter volumes declining 15.6% year-on-year to 418,227 units, below market expectations. While Tesla continues to invest in robotaxis and energy storage, European market share pressure and weaker US EV uptake raise questions over the durability of its core automotive growth strategy.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRKa) -1.41%

Berkshire Hathaway has formally entered its post-Buffett era, with longtime lieutenant Greg Abel assuming the CEO role after Warren Buffett’s six decades of market-beating capital allocation. The transition comes as Berkshire faces performance and deployment challenges, including 2025 underperformance versus the S&P 500 and a record cash pile of $381.7 billion amid limited large-scale acquisition opportunities. While Berkshire has trimmed core holdings such as Apple and Bank of America, investors still view the group as a defensive compounder. Buffett will remain chairman, supporting continuity across Berkshire’s diversified operating portfolio.

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