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market commentary

South Africa:

The All Share index lost 0.52% yesterday to settle at 108,089.9 points, while the Top 40 index ticked 0.58% lower to reach 101,107.1 points. South Africa has secured commitments from Chinese and Indian automakers to upgrade semi-knocked-down (SKD) assembly operations to full-scale manufacturing, as the government engages with global OEMs like Toyota and Ford to bolster domestic vehicle production. Trade and industry leaders call for a national EV strategy to reduce reliance on China and integrate into global supply chains. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Godongwana urged African nations to reduce dependence on declining foreign health aid by increasing domestic revenue generation, including taxes on tobacco and alcohol, citing a multi-layered health financing crisis.

Europe:

European equities hit record highs for a second session, with the STOXX 600 closing up 0.5%, led by industrials and chip-related stocks. Siemens and Schneider Electric were key contributors, while tech gained 2.3% amid positive sentiment from Samsung and SK Hynix supply deals with OpenAI. Rate cut expectations in the U.S. further supported risk appetite. Italy surprised markets by forecasting a 2025 budget deficit at 3%, down from 3.3% and below the EU ceiling, marking its first sub-3% fiscal target since 2019—potentially improving its bond outlook.

United States:

U.S. indices closed at record highs, led by tech stocks including Nvidia, Apple, and Broadcom. Despite a government shutdown halting official data, weaker private-sector job reports have increased market expectations for two further Fed rate cuts this year. However, Fed officials, including Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, urged caution on further easing. September’s nonfarm payroll data release has been delayed, intensifying investor reliance on secondary sources. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose modestly, while investor sentiment remains finely balanced amid high valuations and macro uncertainty.

Asia-Pacific:

Asia-Pacific markets tracked Wall Street higher, shrugging off U.S. shutdown concerns. Japan's unemployment rose to 2.6% in August, above expectations, but its services PMI improved to 53.3, signalling strength in domestic demand. In Australia, Telstra was fined A$18 million for downgrading ~9,000 internet customers’ speeds without notice. The ACCC also mandated customer compensation. Despite positive market moves, Japan’s BoJ continues to weigh rate hikes, while investors eye Saturday’s LDP leadership vote, which could influence the country’s monetary and fiscal trajectory.

Currencies:

The South African rand was stable as markets await clarity on the renewal of AGOA, the U.S.–Africa trade pact. Global risk sentiment was tempered by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and its potential impact on data releases and Fed decisions. The pound steadied at 1.3478 against the dollar, as markets anticipate the UK’s November budget. The dollar weakened broadly, supporting EMFX. The yen trimmed gains after its strongest weekly rally in four months, as the BoJ signalled possible rate hikes and markets eye Japan’s upcoming leadership election.

Commodities:

Gold held firm and is set for its seventh consecutive weekly gain, buoyed by rate cut expectations and safe-haven demand amid U.S. shutdown risks. Oil edged up on Friday but is on course for its steepest weekly drop since June, as OPEC+ signals possible production hikes—up to 500,000 barrels/day in November. Concerns over oversupply, weaker refining activity, and seasonal demand dips have weighed on prices. U.S. inventory data showed builds across crude, gasoline, and distillates, reflecting softer domestic demand and increased stockpiling.

local commentary

Africa Bitcoin Corporation (BAC) 0.00%

Africa Bitcoin Corporation (formerly Altvest Capital) has issued a trading statement for the six months ended 31 August 2025, reporting a 108% year-on-year rise in NAV per ordinary share to R13.40. Revenue increased 156% to R7.7 million, with basic earnings of R1.94 per share versus a prior loss of R0.62. NAV shifts across preference shares were mixed, reflecting portfolio gains, restructuring impacts, and capital raise execution. The Group remains focused on value creation through disciplined investment management. No dividend was declared for the period.

Trustco Group Holdings Limited (TTO) 0.00%

The JSE has imposed a public censure and a R5 million fine on Trustco for breaching Listings Requirements related to a Category 1 transaction. Trustco reduced its stake in Meya Mining from 65% to 19.5% without obtaining prior shareholder approval or issuing the required circular, despite its earlier commitment. This failure undermined investor rights and contravened paragraph 9.20(b). The JSE deemed the breach material, given the transaction's size—equating to 89% of Trustco’s market cap—and highlighted the importance of compliance to protect investor interests and maintain market integrity.

Orion Minerals Limited (ORN) +10.00%

Orion Minerals has successfully upsized its capital raising to approximately A$7.7 million (~ZAR89 million), following strong additional demand from sophisticated and professional investors. The funds were raised via a placement of ~515 million fully paid ordinary shares at A$0.015 (ZAR0.17) per share, including participation by Chairman Denis Waddell. This capital injection strengthens Orion’s balance sheet and supports ongoing development activities across its South African copper and zinc assets. The successful placement reflects investor confidence in Orion’s strategic positioning and long-term growth potential within the critical metals sector.

international commentary

Embraer S.A. (EMBR3) -5.82%

Embraer reported Q3 2025 deliveries of 62 aircraft, up 5% year-on-year, driven by a 25% increase in commercial deliveries (20 aircraft) and stable executive jet volumes (41 units). The Phenom 300 accounted for nearly half of executive jet deliveries. One KC-390 defence aircraft was delivered, down from two a year earlier. Year-to-date, 46 commercial and 102 executive jets have been delivered. Full-year guidance remains at 77–85 commercial and 145–155 executive jets. Shares fell 5.8% ahead of results due on 4 November, underperforming the Bovespa Index.

Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) +2.69%

Applied Materials expects a $600 million revenue impact in FY2026 due to expanded U.S. export restrictions targeting subsidiaries of Chinese firms. An additional $110 million hit is projected in Q4 FY2025. The new regulations complicate exports and servicing without licences, further straining semiconductor supply chains. Shares fell 3% in extended trade. Despite regulatory pressures, Q3 revenue rose 8% year-on-year to $7.30 billion, beating forecasts. FY2024 revenue reached $27.18 billion, up 2.5%. The company faces ongoing headwinds from U.S.-China tensions and broader sectoral weakness.

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