Exxon beats Q3 forecast, boosts dividend despite lower cash flow

South Africa

South African equities weakened on Friday, with the Top 40 index down 0.42% to 101,936.8 points and the All Share index off 0.39% to 109,243.6 points. Aspen Pharmacare settled a €25 million dispute over an mRNA manufacturing contract that had previously triggered a sharp share price collapse and warned that normalised manufacturing earnings could be R2 billion lower than guided. Meanwhile, the National Union of Metalworkers rejected a 7% wage offer from auto manufacturers, demanding higher pay and benefits. A potential strike in an industry representing 5% of GDP could add pressure to major vehicle exporters including Ford, BMW, Toyota, and Volkswagen.

European Union

European equities fell, with the STOXX 600 down 0.5% for a fourth straight session, led by insurance losses after weak results from AXA (-4.4%) and Scor (-13%). Despite the pullback, the index notched its best month since May, buoyed by resilient earnings and optimism over U.S.-China trade ties. Eurozone inflation edged lower in October, supporting the ECB’s decision to keep rates steady at 2% for a third meeting. Barclays scrapped expectations for a December rate cut, projecting stable policy through 2026 amid moderating price pressures and subdued growth.

United States

Wall Street ended higher on Friday as Amazon’s upbeat forecast lifted sentiment, though Fed caution on rate cuts capped gains. Amazon rallied 9.6%, driving the consumer discretionary sector up 4%, while Apple slipped 0.4% despite projecting strong holiday iPhone sales. Traders now assign a 65% probability to a December rate cut, down from over 90% a week ago, after Fed officials signalled concern over persistent inflation. Broader indices extended multi-month winning streaks, while grocers weakened amid uncertainty over federal food aid during the ongoing U.S. government shutdown.

Asia

Asian markets were mixed on Monday as investors assessed weak manufacturing data from China and South Korea. China’s official October PMI fell to 49.0, a six-month low, signalling contraction, while RatingDog’s private PMI eased to 50.6. South Korea’s PMI slipped to 49.4 amid softer global demand linked to trade frictions. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold rates steady following hot inflation data, and Japanese markets were closed for a public holiday. Caution prevailed as regional sentiment reflected slower industrial activity and lingering uncertainty over U.S. trade and monetary policy.

Commodities

Oil prices firmed after OPEC+ confirmed plans to pause production hikes in the first quarter of 2026, maintaining December’s 137,000 bpd increase amid supply concerns. A Ukrainian drone strike on Russia’s Tuapse oil port added geopolitical tension but failed to alter price forecasts, with analysts expecting a balanced market. U.S. crude output hit a record 13.8 million bpd in August, according to the EIA. Despite softer demand forecasts, OPEC+’s output restraint and supply risks are likely to stabilise Brent prices near recent levels heading into 2026.

Currencies

The rand weakened alongside other emerging currencies as a stronger dollar reflected fading confidence in rapid U.S. rate cuts. The greenback hovered near a three-month high ahead of key U.S. data releases, while the yen held at an 8½-month low amid wide yield differentials. The euro slipped to $1.1527 and sterling fell 0.26% to $1.3136 before the BoE’s policy decision, with rates expected unchanged. Market volatility remained muted due to Japan’s holiday-thinned trading and the U.S. government shutdown delaying key economic data releases.

Impala Platinum Holdings Limited (IMP) -4.74%

Impala Platinum delivered a robust first-quarter performance for the period ended 30 September 2025, maintaining operational discipline and reaffirming FY2026 guidance on volumes, costs, and capital expenditure. Group 6E production volumes declined 5% to 882,000 ounces due to lower managed and joint venture output, partly offset by a 3% rise in third-party receipts. Refined and saleable production increased 3% to 830,000 ounces, with sales volumes up 7% to 847,000 ounces amid firmer PGM pricing. The Group achieved a fatality-free quarter and improved safety metrics, reflecting its zero-harm commitment. CEO Nico Muller noted strengthened market sentiment, rising demand for critical metals, and successful contract renewals positioning Implats to capture value through safe and efficient delivery.

MTN Group Limited (MTN) +1.65%

MTN Nigeria posted a sharp turnaround for the nine months to 30 September 2025, restoring positive retained earnings and shareholders’ equity while declaring an interim dividend. Service revenue surged 57.5% to ₦3.71 trillion, driven by strong data (+73.2%), voice (+41.9%) and fintech (+72.5%) growth. Ebitda more than doubled (+123%) to ₦1.92 trillion, expanding the margin to 51.4%. Profit after tax recovered to ₦750.2 billion from a ₦514.9 billion loss, aided by a ₦55.6 billion FX gain. Retained earnings rose to ₦142.7 billion and equity to ₦293.1 billion, supported by cost efficiencies and a stronger naira. Capex excluding leases grew 248% to ₦757.4 billion to expand data, fibre and fintech capacity. MTN reaffirmed FY2025 guidance for “at least low-50%” service revenue growth and Ebitda margins in the low-50s, underpinned by sustained operational momentum.

Vodacom Group Limited (VOD) +0.75%

Vodacom expects a strong earnings performance for the six months ended 30 September 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) and headline earnings per share (HEPS) forecast to rise between 40% and 45% year on year. This implies EPS of 496–513 cents and HEPS of 494–512 cents, versus 354 cents and 353 cents respectively in the prior period. The improvement reflects Vodacom’s Vision 2030 ambition for double-digit EBITDA growth, supported by favourable post-EBITDA movements and the absence of prior-year one-off impacts from the DRC and Ethiopia, which together weighed 55 cents per share. The Group noted continued strategic progress across its markets and is scheduled to release interim results on or about 10 November 2025.

Nu-World Holdings Limited (NWL) +3.45%

Nu-World delivered satisfactory results for the year ended 31 August 2025 despite persistent domestic and global economic pressures. Group revenue rose 11.1% to R2.29 billion, driven by stable demand across its imported and distributed consumer goods portfolio. Basic earnings increased 9.5% to R80.9 million, while earnings per share climbed 11.5% to 391.8 cents and headline earnings per share rose 11.0% to 392.0 cents. Net asset value per share advanced 4% to 7 714 cents, and the Board declared a final gross cash dividend of 148.5 cents, up 9.4% year on year. The Group’s financial statements received an unmodified review opinion from RSM South Africa. Nu-World continues to demonstrate resilient performance across its international operations in Australia, Brazil, the UAE and Hong Kong.

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) -0.29%

Exxon Mobil beat third-quarter expectations, posting adjusted earnings of $8.1 billion ($1.88 per share) versus forecasts of $1.82, driven by record output in Guyana and the Permian Basin. Production rose to 4.8 million boepd, while upstream earnings reached $5.7 billion and refining added $1.8 billion. Free cash flow fell to $6.3 billion from $11.3 billion due to higher capital spending. Exxon raised its dividend by 4% to $1.03 and reaffirmed disciplined, long-term investment amid softer crude prices.

AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) -4.45%

AbbVie delivered strong third-quarter 2025 results, with adjusted EPS of $1.86 beating $1.77 consensus estimates. Revenue rose to $15.78 billion as Skyrizi ($4.71 billion) and Rinvoq ($2.18 billion) offset Humira’s drop below $1 billion following biosimilar competition. Guidance was raised to $10.61–$10.65 EPS for 2025. Aesthetics revenue fell 3.7%, but overall momentum remained solid. Management said Medicare price cuts will not impact long-term outlook, reinforcing confidence in earnings growth and its immunology-driven pipeline.

Chevron Corporation (CVX) +2.74%

Chevron exceeded third-quarter estimates with adjusted earnings of $3.6 billion ($1.85 per share) versus the $1.68 consensus, driven by record production and strong refining margins. Output hit 4.1 million boepd after the $55 billion Hess acquisition, boosting Guyana exposure and cash generation. Operating cash flow rose 20% y/y to $9.9 billion. Upstream earnings were $3.3 billion, while downstream profits surged 91% to $1.1 billion. Chevron returned $6 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks and will outline long-term guidance on 12 November.

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