Tesla poised for strongest 2025 quarter as U.S. demand spikes before EV tax credit expires

South Africa:

The Top 40 index added 0.74% yesterday as it closed at 101,696.8 points, while the All Share index gained 0.66% to reach 108,649.8 points. South Africa’s new vehicle sales are set to exceed pre-pandemic levels for the first time in five years, driven by robust demand for affordable models. NAAMSA President Billy Tom highlighted strong first-half resilience despite economic headwinds. September’s Absa PMI rose to 52.2 from 49.5, indicating improved manufacturing sentiment. Capitec Bank reported a 26% jump in half-year profit to R8 billion, supported by strong growth across banking, insurance, and fintech. SARS remains behind revenue-raising targets but is on track to meet its baseline goal for the 2025/26 fiscal year.

Europe:

European stocks surged, with the STOXX 600 hitting a record high on Wednesday, led by a 5.4% rally in healthcare stocks following Pfizer’s U.S. Medicaid deal. London’s FTSE 100 also closed at a record. However, economic data pointed to softness, with eurozone manufacturing slipping into contraction in September and UK factory output shrinking at the fastest rate in five months. France and Germany also reported manufacturing declines. Tate & Lyle tumbled 13% after warning of lower profit and revenue, bucking the broader trend of healthcare-driven optimism in the region’s equity markets.

United States:

Wall Street closed higher Wednesday, led by healthcare stocks following a Pfizer–Trump deal to lower U.S. Medicaid drug prices in exchange for tariff relief. Despite weaker-than-expected ADP data showing a 32,000 decline in private payrolls, investors looked past near-term uncertainty. September’s official jobs report may be delayed due to the federal government shutdown. U.S. manufacturing data hinted at recovery, and markets expect further rate cuts. The S&P 500 healthcare index led sector gains. Investor sentiment remained resilient, buoyed by easing rate expectations and the political boost to healthcare valuations.

Asia-Pacific:

South Korea’s Kospi index soared over 3% to a record high, led by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which gained sharply on news of a partnership with OpenAI. The collaboration involves memory chip supply and new AI data centres in South Korea. Inflation ticked up in September, with consumer prices rising 2.1% year-on-year. In China, National Day rail travel set new records, reflecting strong domestic mobility. Australia’s trade surplus shrank sharply to A$1.8 billion in August, missing forecasts due to a plunge in gold exports and a broad-based rise in imports.

Currencies:

The South African rand strengthened on Wednesday, buoyed by improved manufacturing sentiment reflected in a better-than-expected PMI and a broadly weaker U.S. dollar. In Asia, the dollar regained ground on Thursday after the U.S. Supreme Court said it would hear arguments in January regarding President Trump’s attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, allowing her to remain in her post for now. The decision reduced short-term policy uncertainty. Currency markets remain sensitive to evolving U.S. political developments, central bank leadership dynamics, and shifting expectations around global monetary policy.

Commodities:

Gold prices held near record highs on Thursday, supported by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and political uncertainty. Oil rebounded after a three-day decline, lifted by prospects of tighter sanctions on Russian crude, though upside was capped by anticipated supply increases from OPEC+ in November. G7 finance ministers pledged to intensify pressure on Russia by targeting third-party buyers and intermediaries aiding sanctions evasion. While tighter sanctions could support prices, OPEC+ output hikes and concerns over the U.S. government shutdown continue to weigh on broader market sentiment and investor positioning.

Capitec Bank Holdings Limited (CPI) +1.65%

Capitec Bank Holdings Limited reported strong interim results for the six months ended 31 August 2025. Operating profit before tax increased by 26% to R10.47 billion, while headline earnings per share rose by 26% to 6 962 cents. Earnings per share were up 24% to 6 927 cents. The interim ordinary dividend was increased by 26% to 2 620 cents per share. Total equity grew by 17% to R53.8 billion. The board declared a gross interim dividend of 2 620 cents per ordinary share. Results are unaudited and condensed.

SPAR Group Limited (SPP) +2.07%

SPAR delivered a stronger second-half performance in a competitive trading environment for the 51 weeks ended 19 September 2025. Group sales rose 2.8% in H2, offsetting a weaker H1. The disposal of SPAR Switzerland significantly strengthened the balance sheet, reducing net debt by ~30% and simplifying the Group's structure. Focus is now on Southern Africa and Ireland, with strategic divestments largely complete. The board is evaluating capital return options, supported by improved free cash flow. Full-year results for the 52 weeks to 26 September are expected on or about 8 December 2025.

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) +3.31%

Tesla is expected to post its strongest quarter of 2025 on Thursday, driven by a surge in U.S. demand ahead of the expiry of a $7,500 EV tax credit. Deliveries are projected at ~441,500 vehicles for Q3—down ~6% year-on-year—despite the temporary lift from incentives. Analysts view the boost as front-loaded, with limited impact on long-term demand. European sales remain weak amid aging models and political fallout tied to CEO Elon Musk. Tesla raised U.S. lease prices post-incentive, while focus shifts to a cheaper Model Y and long-term software revenue.

Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) +24.00%

Neptune Insurance shares surged 12.5% in their NYSE debut, opening at $22.50 versus a $20 IPO price, valuing the flood insurer at $3.11 billion. The company and existing shareholders sold 18.4 million shares at the top of the $18–$20 range, initially valuing Neptune at $2.76 billion. As climate-driven flood risks rise, demand for private coverage grows—especially amid disruption to the federally backed National Flood Insurance Program due to a U.S. government shutdown. Neptune cites NFIP subsidies as a competitive hurdle for private insurers like itself.

Samsung Electronics Company Limited (005930) +2.50%

Shares in Samsung Electronics rose 4.7% and SK Hynix surged 12% after announcing a strategic partnership with OpenAI to support its expansive Stargate AI data centre project. The collaboration, part of a broader $500 billion U.S.-led AI infrastructure push, includes semiconductor procurement and joint development of two data centres in South Korea. The news added $37 billion to their combined market cap, with Samsung affiliates also rallying on related deals. The AI-driven semiconductor boom continues to bolster South Korea’s exports, while trade talks with the U.S. remain ongoing amid FX concerns.

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