Exxon beats Q4 earnings on record Permian and Guyana output

South African Market Summary

The JSE All Share fell 4.15% to 120,045.73, while the Top 40 declined 4.52% to 112,228.99, reflecting broad risk aversion. SARB MPC member Christopher Loewald announced early retirement, introducing a modest policy continuity question. Transnet signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Port of Antwerp-Bruges International and the Antwerp/Flanders Port Training Centre to accelerate port modernisation, digitalisation and operational efficiency. Meanwhile, diplomatic tensions escalated after South Africa and Israel expelled senior diplomats, adding geopolitical uncertainty to an already fragile investor sentiment backdrop.

European Market Summary

European equities extended gains, with the STOXX 600 rising 0.6% to 611, marking a seventh straight monthly advance. Earnings drove dispersion: Swatch rallied after reporting constant-currency sales growth, Adidas gained on record sales and a €1 billion buyback, while Alten surged on a smaller-than-expected decline. However, consensus still points to a 3.9% year-on-year drop in quarterly earnings. German inflation surprised slightly higher at 2.1%, French car registrations fell, and UK business sentiment improved modestly, highlighting an uneven regional demand and policy environment.

US Market Summary

Wall Street closed lower as investors assessed the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, seen as a comparatively hawkish policy signal. Concerns over persistent inflation and renewed risks of a US government shutdown added pressure. Earnings reactions remained selective: Apple recovered to close higher, while defensive sectors outperformed, led by consumer staples. Colgate-Palmolive advanced after lifting sales expectations. Small-caps underperformed, reflecting rate sensitivity, while investors continued to debate whether elevated capital spending across megacaps remains justified by growth delivery.

Asian Market Summary

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed as investors weighed improving regional manufacturing data. China’s private PMI edged up to 50.3, signalling modest expansion ahead of Lunar New Year production pauses. Japan’s PMI rose to 51.5, its strongest reading since 2022, while South Korea’s index climbed to 51.2 on firmer export demand. In corporate moves, BYD shares in Hong Kong fell after another month of sales declines. The data pointed to stabilising industrial momentum, though equity performance remained selective across sectors and markets.

Currency Market Summary

The US dollar strengthened as markets evaluated the implications of Kevin Warsh potentially leading the Federal Reserve, with expectations of balance-sheet restraint supporting tighter liquidity conditions. The South African rand weakened sharply amid global risk aversion and domestic data considerations. The euro remained below $1.20, while the yen drew attention after political commentary in Japan appeared more tolerant of currency weakness. Currency moves largely reflected shifting policy expectations and interest-rate outlooks rather than fresh macroeconomic data releases.

Commodity Market Summary

Gold prices weakened as higher CME margin requirements and shifting US rate expectations pressured precious metals. Oil fell about 4% after signs of easing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran reduced the risk premium built into crude prices. Diplomatic signals suggested potential de-escalation, while OPEC+ kept March output unchanged. The move triggered profit-taking after recent gains and highlighted how energy markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments rather than immediate changes in physical supply or demand fundamentals.

Impala Platinum Holdings Limited (IMP) -13.28%

Implats delivered a resilient first-half operational performance, with group 6E production rising 1% to 1.80 million ounces and refined output steady at 1.78 million ounces, supported by improved processing performance and record milling rates. Strong gains at Zimplats offset softer volumes at Rustenburg, Marula and Impala Canada, while joint venture output declined modestly. Sales benefited from higher dollar basket prices, lifting revenue per ounce despite rand strength. Unit costs increased on inflation and development intensity, but capital expenditure fell, leaving full-year guidance intact unchanged overall.

Ninety One Plc (N91) -1.22%

Ninety One confirmed that the South African leg of its strategic transaction with Sanlam is expected to complete on 2 February 2026, marking the start of a 15-year active asset management partnership. As consideration for acquiring Sanlam Investment Management, Ninety One will issue new shares in both its plc and Limited entities to Sanlam affiliates. The shares will be admitted to trading on the LSE and JSE on completion, modestly expanding Ninety One’s share base while deepening its long-term distribution and client relationship with Sanlam.

Southern Palladium Limited (SDL) -7.55%

Southern Palladium advanced its Bengwenyama PGM project during the December quarter, completing metallurgical drilling and progressing geotechnical work to support Definitive Feasibility Study optimisation and early-stage mine planning. Key regulatory milestones were achieved, including submission of Mining Right documentation and lodgement of the Environmental Guarantee, positioning the project for approval. A fully subscribed A$20 million capital raise strengthened liquidity, lifting quarter-end cash to A$22.6 million and funding DFS completion and pre-development activities, as the company advances Bengwenyama towards a Final Investment Decision.

MC Mining Limited (MCZ) +2.50%

MC Mining progressed construction of its Makhado hard coking coal project, with coal plant hot commissioning targeted for March 2026 and development remaining within budget, while maintaining a strong safety record. However, operational performance at Uitkomst Colliery deteriorated, with ROM output down 40% year on year amid geological disruptions and equipment constraints, lifting unit costs. Depressed thermal and coking coal prices added pressure. Liquidity tightened to US$2.9 million, partly offset by continued strategic funding support and IDC loan repayments, as management reviews turnaround options.

ArcelorMittal South Africa Limited (ACL) +5.47%

ArcelorMittal South Africa signalled a narrower annual loss for FY2025, with earnings per share expected to improve to a loss of R2.20–R2.72 from a R5.24 loss previously, while headline earnings per share are forecast to narrow to a R2.68–R3.18 loss. The improvement reflects operational stabilisation and cost management, although profitability remains under pressure from weak steel demand and structural industry challenges. Results have not been audited, with reviewed financial statements due for release on 5 February 2026.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) +0.63%

Exxon Mobil reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.71 per share, ahead of consensus expectations, supported by higher production from its Permian Basin and Guyana assets. Annual upstream output reached a more than 40-year high of 4.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Full-year adjusted profit declined 10% amid weaker crude prices, marking the company’s slimmest annual profit since 2021. Refining earnings strengthened on improved margins and throughput, while chemicals recorded a small loss. Exxon maintained significant shareholder distributions and expects higher production in 2026.

Chevron Corporation (CVX) +3.34%

Chevron reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.52 per share, ahead of expectations but down from $2.06 a year earlier, as lower crude prices weighed on results. Total production was 4 million boepd, up year on year following the Hess acquisition. Upstream earnings fell 30% to $3 billion, while downstream profit recovered to $823 million on stronger refining margins. The company highlighted long-term potential in Venezuela, where output is 250 000 boepd. Chevron returned $24.9 billion to shareholders in 2025 and expects production growth of 7–10% in 2026.

American Express Company (AXP) -1.77%

American Express forecast 2026 earnings per share of $17.30–$17.90, above market expectations at the midpoint, signalling continued resilience among its affluent customer base. Fourth-quarter EPS of $3.53 narrowly missed forecasts as expenses rose 10% to $14.5 billion, despite revenue increasing 10% to $18.98 billion. Billed business grew 9% to $445.1 billion, supported by strong holiday spending across travel, dining, retail and luxury categories. The company expects 2026 revenue growth of 9–10% as investors monitor potential regulatory caps on credit card interest rates.

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