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market commentary

South Africa:

The Top 40 index added 0.66% yesterday to close at 100,951.4 points, while the All Share index gained 0.65% to reach 107,940.5 points. South Africa’s M3 money supply growth slowed to 6.18% in August, while credit growth slightly rose to 5.86%, beating forecasts. The country saw foreign direct investment outflows of R73.5 billion in Q2 2025 versus inflows earlier. Formal sector employment declined, and a R38.35 billion budget deficit deepened fiscal concerns. However, South Africa and Nigeria may exit the FATF “grey list” soon after progress on financial reforms. The SARB warns of a debt trap but supports a fiscal rule to control borrowing amid rising debt-service costs squeezing public spending. 

Europe:

European shares closed higher, with the STOXX 600 rising 0.5% amid cautious optimism despite U.S. government shutdown risks. The FTSE 100 hit a record intraday high. ECB President Lagarde signaled no imminent rate changes as inflation remains near the 2% target, helped by tariff resilience. However, German inflation unexpectedly rose to 2.4% in September, while Irish consumer prices surged to 2.7% year-on-year. These mixed signals highlight ongoing inflation pressures but a generally stable eurozone economy.

United States:

Wall Street’s major indexes ended higher, marking multiple consecutive monthly gains despite looming U.S. government shutdown concerns. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all showed quarterly growth. Job openings rose modestly, but consumer confidence fell more than expected. Healthcare led gains, boosted by Pfizer’s 6.8% rally after promising drug price cuts linked to tariff relief. The shutdown, triggered by Congressional deadlock over funding and ACA tax credits, will delay key economic data, complicating Fed interest rate decisions.

Asia-Pacific:

Asia-Pacific markets showed mixed results as investors remained unfazed by the impending U.S. shutdown. Japan’s Tankan survey revealed a slight rise in business optimism among large manufacturers (+14), though below expectations. Non-manufacturing sentiment stayed stable. India’s Reserve Bank interest rate decision is awaited. China’s property market remains weak with slower new home price growth (0.09% in September) and continued resale price declines (-0.74%), despite government support efforts, signaling ongoing real estate challenges.

Currencies:

The South African rand weakened following mixed local economic data, including central bank reports and a budget deficit. The British pound edged higher but is set for its fourth consecutive monthly loss against the euro and its first decline against the U.S. dollar since July. The dollar hovered near a one-week low amid growing shutdown concerns in the U.S., which threaten to delay key jobs data and heighten market uncertainty in the near term.

Commodities:

Exxon Mobil targets South Africa as a key market for liquefied natural gas (LNG), as domestic pipeline supplies from Mozambique decline. The U.S. leads LNG exports, potentially increasing a gas glut by 2030. Meanwhile, gold hit record highs amid U.S. shutdown fears and weak labor data, which spurred expectations of Fed rate cuts. Oil prices steadied after two days of losses, supported by falling U.S. crude inventories despite rising gasoline and distillate stockpiles, reflecting mixed supply-demand dynamics.

local commentary

Netcare Limited (NTC) +3.73%

Netcare anticipates FY 2025 revenue growth of 4.5%–4.7%, with EBITDA up 6.5%–8.5% and operating profit rising 8.5%–11.5%. Adjusted HEPS is forecast to grow 16%–19%, driven by improved operational efficiency, digitisation benefits, and lower costs. Hospital segment revenue is set to increase 4.8%–5.0%, despite temporary disruptions at Pretoria East Hospital. Mental health demand remains robust, while Primary Care revenue declines due to a major contract loss. R854m was returned via share buybacks. Strategic initiatives remain on track, supporting Netcare’s long-term digital and patient-centred care strategy.

Assura plc (AHR) -1.30%

Assura reported a strong H1 FY2026 trading performance, achieving a 5.6% like-for-like rent increase and a £12m portfolio valuation uplift. The 602-property portfolio now generates £179.5m in annualised rent with a 12.3-year WAULT. Development continues, including NHS and independent hospital projects totalling £75m, while a £250m pipeline is progressing. Asset enhancement and a rooftop solar rollout further support earnings growth. Assura confirmed its LSE and JSE delistings following the PHP offer, with final delisting dates expected in October. The business remains well-positioned to deliver long-term, index-linked income and sustainable value.

Renergen Limited (REN) -3.73%

In Q2 FY2026, Renergen advanced its merger with ASP Isotopes, with all scheme conditions fulfilled and the deadline extended to 28 November 2025 for final regulatory approvals. A key legal milestone was reached via a financial and coexistence settlement with Springbok Solar, enabling both the Virginia Gas and Springbok Solar Projects to operate collaboratively. LNG output declined to 987 tonnes due to maintenance, while helium operations were paused to contain costs. Enhanced geological analysis led to the identification of 13 new drilling targets, with R36.1 million invested in exploration.

Orion Minerals Limited (ORN) -13.04%

Orion Minerals has secured firm commitments to raise A$5 million (c.ZAR57 million) via a placement of 333.33 million shares at A$0.015 (ZAR0.17) per share, including A$1 million from Chairman Denis Waddell, subject to shareholder approval. Proceeds will support early works at the Prieska Copper Zinc Uppers project, optimisation at the Okiep Copper Project, and general working capital. The raise strengthens Orion’s position as it advances offtake and funding negotiations, including the potential US$200–250 million Glencore facility, marking a strategic shift towards mine development and future production.

York Timber Holdings Limited (YRK) -12.90%

York reported a robust FY2025 performance, with revenue rising 14% to R1.995 billion and adjusted EBITDA increasing by R75 million to R166 million. Strong operational cash generation of R148 million supported a 19% uplift in the value of biological assets to R3.25 billion. EPS and HEPS surged to 68.19 cents and 66.69 cents respectively, while NAV per share improved to 659 cents. Net debt rose to R561 million, reflecting increased investment. Despite improved results, no dividend was declared. The Group remains focused on strengthening financial resilience and long-term asset value.

Wesizwe Platinum Limited (WEZ) 0.00%

For the year ended 31 December 2024, Wesizwe reported a sharp deterioration in financial performance. Administration expenses surged to R98.0 million (2023: R27.8 million), and a R207.0 million legal provision was recognised. This contributed to a headline loss per share of 12.86 cents, up from 1.55 cents in 2023. The full-year loss per share mirrors the headline figure, and no dividend was declared. The results reflect heightened cost pressures and legal risks, weighing heavily on the Group's profitability.

international commentary

CoreWeave Inc. (CRWV) +11.70%

CoreWeave announced a $14.2 billion agreement with Meta to supply cloud computing capacity through 2031, with an option to extend into 2032. This deal reflects the booming AI infrastructure demand and boosts CoreWeave’s valuation to around $60 billion. The partnership complements CoreWeave’s contracts with Microsoft and OpenAI, and includes providing Meta access to Nvidia’s latest GB300 systems. The deal supports Meta’s ambition to enhance technologies powering products like smart glasses. While AI investments raise bubble concerns, market expansion beyond major players reduces this risk.

Nike Inc. (NKE) +0.26%

Nike reported a 1% rise in Q1 revenue to $11.72 billion, beating expectations amid ongoing recovery efforts. The company faces $1.5 billion in tariffs, up from $1 billion estimates, pressuring margins. Greater China sales declined for the fifth quarter due to strong local competition. CEO Elliott Hill aims to refocus Nike on core sports like running and basketball. Despite inventory reductions and wholesale revenue growth, direct-to-consumer sales may lag in fiscal 2026. Q1 earnings per share of 49 cents beat forecasts, though margins contracted.

Paychex Inc. (PAYX) -1.38%

Paychex’s first-quarter expenses jumped 29% to $998.1 million, driven by higher compensation and costs related to its Paycor acquisition. Technology, sales, and marketing investments also contributed to increased spending. Despite this, Paychex raised its annual adjusted earnings growth forecast to 9%–11%, up from 8.5%–10.5%. Revenue rose 17% to $1.54 billion, in line with estimates, fueled by client growth and expanded HR services. Adjusted Q1 earnings per share were $1.22, slightly above expectations. The company serves over 745,000 clients with diverse HR and payroll solutions.

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