In today's Taking Stock, Nvidia insiders have sold over $1 billion worth of stock over the past year as the share price reached record highs on sustained AI-driven momentum.
Local Market Commentary
The JSE All Share Index dipped 0.11% to close at 95,862.3, while the Top 40 lost 0.21%, settling at 88,214.9 on Friday, as investor sentiment wavered amid political developments. The Democratic Alliance (DA) withdrew from President Ramaphosa’s national dialogue initiative after the dismissal of one of its deputy ministers, although it remains part of the coalition government. This political tension introduces fresh uncertainty around policy execution in the newly formed Government of National Unity, particularly as it relates to fiscal reform and public sector coordination. Today, markets await key macroeconomic indicators, including May credit extension, money supply, trade balance, and budget balance figures, which may offer further clarity on the domestic economic trajectory.
European Market Commentary
European equities ended the week on a positive note, with the STOXX 600 rallying 1.1%, snapping a two-week losing streak amid renewed investor risk appetite driven by optimism over a potential easing of U.S.-China trade tensions. Sectoral gains were led by automakers, while broader sentiment benefited from stronger-than-expected UK business confidence—the Lloyds Bank Business Barometer rose to 51%, its highest level since November 2015. In France, preliminary June inflation data showed an uptick to 0.8% y/y (harmonised), from 0.6% in May, driven by firmer service costs and easing declines in energy prices. While the ECB has begun its rate-cutting cycle, the inflation trend in core eurozone economies may prompt a more cautious easing pace in the months ahead.
U.S. Market Commentary
Wall Street’s momentum accelerated into the weekend, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching fresh all-time highs, buoyed by resurgent AI enthusiasm and dovish Federal Reserve rhetoric. Chipmaker Micron’s upbeat earnings guidance rekindled optimism around the semiconductor cycle, while Nvidia reclaimed its spot as the world’s most valuable company, nearing a $4 trillion market cap. Soft economic prints—including tepid consumer spending and slowing housing data—combined with speculation that a future Trump presidency might replace Fed Chair Powell with a more accommodative candidate, have lifted market-implied rate cut probabilities. Meanwhile, a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran helped ease geopolitical tensions that had temporarily lifted crude prices and inflation concerns.
Asia Market Commentary
Asian markets traded higher on Monday as investors processed a flurry of industrial data from Japan and South Korea, as well as China’s PMI releases. Japan’s industrial output rose just 0.5% in May, missing forecasts of 3.5%, with strength in machinery and motor vehicles partly offset by softness in chemicals and electronics. In South Korea, factory output contracted 2.9% m/m, worse than the 0.1% decline expected, marking a second consecutive month of declines. On a y/y basis, output rose just 0.2%, sharply down from April’s 5.1%. Retail sales remained stagnant, further pointing to domestic demand headwinds. Market watchers are closely monitoring China’s PMI numbers for signs of sustained recovery momentum amid ongoing stimulus efforts.
Currency Market Commentary
The rand firmed marginally on Friday, recovering from prior session losses despite a flare-up in coalition politics. Investors appear to be taking a wait-and-see approach as the DA’s continued participation in government mitigates immediate fears of instability. In global FX, the dollar weakened across the board, trading near multi-year lows versus the euro, sterling, and Swiss franc. Improving U.S.-China trade prospects and dovish expectations for Fed policy have driven capital flows into higher-yielding and risk-sensitive currencies. The pound, in particular, posted its strongest weekly gain in nearly four months, benefitting from both relative dollar softness and improving UK macro sentiment. All eyes now turn to upcoming U.S. jobs data and inflation prints for confirmation of the Fed’s trajectory.
Commodity Market Commentary
Gold reversed early losses on Monday, edging higher as the dollar weakened, although its safe-haven appeal remains subdued amid cooling U.S.-China trade tensions. The precious metal had touched a one-month low earlier in the session but found support as expectations for Fed rate cuts re-emerged. Crude oil fell around 1% as OPEC+ delegates indicated an August production hike of 411,000 barrels/day is likely, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase. The easing of Middle East tensions, including the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, has reduced risk premiums, further weighing on prices. Markets now await the next OPEC+ meeting for clarity on supply strategy heading into the second half of the year.
Absa Group (ABG) +3.65%
Absa Group expects mid-teen earnings growth and an improved return on equity of 14.8% for 1H25, supported by significantly lower credit impairments and robust trading income, despite a challenging macroeconomic environment and less currency depreciation in African operations than anticipated. Group revenue is forecast to rise in the mid-single digits, with non-interest income growing at a high single-digit pace, offsetting pressure on net interest income from margin compression in South Africa. Operating expenses are set to grow moderately, while the credit loss ratio is expected to decline to around 100bps from 123bps in 1H24. The CET1 ratio is anticipated to end near the upper end of the 11.0%–12.5% target range, with the dividend payout ratio maintained at 55%. South Africa remains the primary earnings contributor, while African regions deliver strong pre-provision profit growth despite higher impairments.
Remgro (REM) +0.50%
Remgro has announced a strategic transaction with eMedia Holdings (EMH), through which it will exchange its 32.31% stake in eMedia Investments for 238.5 million EMH N shares. These will be unbundled to Remgro shareholders, unlocking trapped value linked to its NAV discount and enhancing shareholder flexibility. The transaction, worth approximately ZAR 120.86 per 100 Remgro shares, is also expected to improve EMH’s share liquidity by boosting free float. Regulatory and shareholder approvals are targeted by October 2025. Remgro sees the deal as part of its broader portfolio realignment, enabling EMH full strategic control of EMI while delivering direct benefit to its own shareholders.
Crookes Brothers (CKS) -3.33%
Crookes Brothers posted a resilient FY25 performance, with revenue from continuing operations up 15% to R833.8 million and operating profit after biological assets increasing 19% to R132.5 million. The banana segment delivered a record R51.6 million profit despite weather-related disruptions, while the property division returned to profitability following key land sales. Headline earnings per share rose 27% to 425.1 cents, even as biological asset valuations declined 69%. Sugar operations were hit by El Niño and labour action, and macadamia losses narrowed despite storm-related setbacks. Capital expenditure rose to R81.6 million, including investment in a new solar facility. Despite higher net debt of R98.2 million, interest costs fell 20%, and cash flows remained strong. Management remains cautious on commodity pricing but is confident in its repositioning initiatives, including converting Nicoskamp farm from bananas to cane.
Marshall Monteagle PLC (MMP) 0.00%
Marshall Monteagle reported a sharp earnings contraction for the year to 31 March 2025, with profit before tax falling 85% to $373,000 and profit after tax down 75% to $565,000, despite a marginal 2% decline in revenue to $81.0 million. Basic earnings per share dropped 93% to 1.0 cent, and headline EPS declined 62% to 2.2 cents. Nonetheless, a final gross dividend of US 2.0 cents per share (ZAR 35.56 cents) was declared, reflecting the group’s focus on delivering consistent shareholder returns. Marshall Monteagle maintains a long-term investment approach across global blue-chip equities, industrial property in South Africa, and internationally active financing and trading businesses.
Nvidia (NVDA) +1.72%
Nvidia insiders have sold over $1 billion worth of stock over the past year, with more than $500 million in June alone, according to Financial Times, as the share price reached record highs on sustained AI-driven momentum. CEO Jensen Huang resumed sales for the first time since September, coinciding with the company's brief reclaiming of its title as the world's most valuable company. The surge reflects a broader market re-entry into the AI trade, driven by strong investor sentiment and bullish analyst forecasts on Nvidia’s positioning in the next wave of AI adoption. While insider selling has raised some eyebrows, the company remains a focal point for growth-focused equity investors seeking exposure to the AI megatrend.
Nike (NKE) +15.19%
Nike shares surged 17% after it reassured investors that it has moved past the low point of its restructuring efforts, despite a challenging Q4 marked by a 12% drop in sales and an 86% fall in net income. CEO Elliott Hill highlighted early success from the “Win Now” turnaround strategy, pointing to stabilising performance, promising new product launches, and improved wholesale relationships. Strategic moves—like re-engaging Amazon and expanding women’s-focused offerings—were met with optimism, as banks including HSBC upgraded the stock and raised price targets. The upbeat tone and roadmap clarity have helped shift sentiment, positioning Nike for a potential earnings recovery in FY26.
Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa) +0.16%
Warren Buffett made his largest annual donation to date, gifting $6 billion in Berkshire Hathaway shares to the Gates Foundation and his family’s philanthropic arms. This brings his total giving to over $60 billion since 2006 and reduces his stake to 13.8%. The move reinforces Buffett’s long-term commitment to philanthropy while leaving Berkshire's capital allocation strategy intact, with Buffett reiterating he will not sell shares during his lifetime. The conglomerate, with a market cap exceeding $1 trillion, continues to deliver defensive value through its diversified holdings, including Geico, BNSF, and major equity positions in Apple and American Express, underpinning its appeal as a long-term compounder.
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