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Market Commentary

South African Market Summary

South African equities ended Friday weaker, with the JSE All Share Index declining 1.73% to 114,924.21 and the Top 40 Index falling 1.83% to 107,285.27. Data also showed mineral exploration investment declined for a seventh consecutive year, falling 5.3% to R738 million in 2025, highlighting structural challenges in sustaining future mining capacity. Meanwhile, President Cyril Ramaphosa authorised the deployment of 2,200 defence force personnel to assist with crime prevention. On the fiscal front, the IMF indicated that South Africa’s proposed fiscal rule could improve policy credibility, provided it receives strong institutional and political support.

European Market Summary

European equities ended lower on Friday, with the pan-European STOXX 600 declining 0.5% and recording a second consecutive weekly loss as Middle East tensions and persistent inflation concerns weighed on investor sentiment. Economic data showed French harmonised inflation rising 1.1% year-on-year in February, while the UK economy expanded 0.2% in the three months to January, below expectations. German wholesale prices increased 1.2% year-on-year, signalling ongoing pricing pressures. Among individual movers, BE Semiconductor Industries (BESI) advanced 5.6% after reports of takeover interest supported the semiconductor equipment group’s shares.

US Market Summary

U.S. equities closed lower on Friday, with all three major indices recording daily and weekly declines as volatile crude oil prices and escalating conflict involving Iran weighed on market sentiment. Geopolitical tensions raised concerns about potential disruptions to global oil supply, dampening risk appetite. Economic data also disappointed, including a sharp downward revision to fourth-quarter GDP growth and softer durable goods demand, while the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge showed limited movement. Despite weaker data, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at next week’s policy meeting amid inflation risks linked to energy prices.

Asian Market Summary

Asia-Pacific markets declined on Monday as investors assessed elevated oil prices and rising geopolitical tensions linked to the escalating U.S.–Iran conflict. In China, economic data showed mixed signals: industrial production rose 6.3% year-on-year in January–February, accelerating from December and exceeding expectations, while retail sales increased 2.8%, indicating a modest recovery in consumer demand. However, the property sector remains under pressure, with new home prices falling 3.2% year-on-year in February, marking the steepest decline in eight months and underscoring the sector’s ongoing structural weakness despite signs of stabilisation in major cities.

Currency Market Summary

Currency markets reflected rising geopolitical uncertainty, with the South African rand weakening for a second consecutive week as surging energy prices linked to Middle East tensions heightened global inflation concerns. The British pound also declined, recording a fourth straight daily loss against the U.S. dollar following weaker-than-expected UK economic data. Meanwhile, the dollar remained near a 10-month high as investors positioned ahead of a series of central bank meetings this week. Policymakers including the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Japan are expected to assess interest rate policy amid elevated geopolitical and inflation risks.

Commodity Market Summary

Oil prices eased on Monday after early gains, as U.S. President Donald Trump called for international cooperation to safeguard shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy trade. Crude prices have surged more than 40% this month, reaching their highest levels since 2022, after U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran prompted Tehran to halt shipping through the strait, disrupting roughly one-fifth of global oil supply. Trump also warned of potential further strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island export hub. Meanwhile, gold edged lower as elevated energy prices reduced expectations of near-term U.S. interest rate cuts.

Local Commentary

Remgro (REM) +2.30%

Remgro expects headline earnings per share (HEPS) for the six months ended 31 December 2025 to increase to between 914 and 948 cents, representing growth of approximately 36%–41% from 672 cents in the comparable period. The improvement reflects stronger operational performance across the majority of the group’s investee companies. The company noted that HEPS is used as the relevant measure for trading statement purposes under JSE Listings Requirements. Full interim results are scheduled for release on or about 25 March 2026. The financial information underpinning this trading statement has not been reviewed or audited by external auditors.

MC Mining (MCZ) -0.28%

MC Mining reported a marginal improvement in interim earnings for the six months ended 31 December 2025, with loss after tax narrowing 2% to $8.1 million, or 1.22 cents per share. Revenue declined 22% to $6.6 million, reflecting lower sales volumes at the Uitkomst operation and weaker thermal coal prices. Cost of sales fell 12%, while finance costs decreased significantly by 55%. Net asset value increased 23% to $101.9 million. Headline loss per share improved by 33% year-on-year. The company ended the period with cash of $2.9 million and declared no interim dividend.

Texton Property Fund (TEX) -1.54%

Texton reported distributable earnings of R35.97 million for the six months ended 31 December 2025, slightly below the prior period as stronger South African net operating income, up 4% on improved letting momentum, was offset by lower UK contributions following asset disposals. Net asset value per share declined to 503.23 cents from 574.61 cents at June 2025, primarily reflecting the return of capital declared in September. Loan-to-value increased to 29.7% due to reduced cash levels, while interest cover remained stable at approximately 2.2x. South African portfolio vacancies rose marginally to 9.8%.

SA Corporate Real Estate (SAC) -3.65%

SA Corporate reported a 9.0% increase in distribution per share to 26.55 cents for the year ended 31 December 2025, supported by a 6.0% rise in distributable income per share to 28.71 cents. Like-for-like net property income increased 6.2% to R1.3 billion, reflecting stable portfolio performance and low vacancies. Revenue declined marginally to R2.92 billion, while headline earnings per share fell to 24.40 cents. Net asset value per share decreased to 420 cents. The group maintained strong occupancy levels, with traditional portfolio vacancies stable at 1.5% and residential vacancies improving to 3.6%.

International Commentary

JD.com (9618) +0.09%

JD.com has expanded its international strategy with the launch of its Joybuy online marketplace across the UK, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg, intensifying competition with Amazon. The platform offers products across technology, appliances, beauty, homeware and groceries, supported by brand partnerships including L’Oréal and De’Longhi. JD.com is targeting rapid fulfilment, with same-day delivery in major cities and next-day delivery across much of Europe. The launch forms part of a broader international push, following its €2.2 billion agreement to acquire German retailer Ceconomy, as Chinese e-commerce groups seek growth beyond slower domestic markets.

Micron Technology (MU) +5.13%

Micron Technology announced plans to construct a second semiconductor manufacturing facility in Taiwan at the Tongluo site recently acquired from Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. The new plant will expand production of advanced DRAM products, including high-bandwidth memory (HBM), supporting accelerating demand from artificial intelligence applications. Micron confirmed it has completed the acquisition of the Tongluo P5 site, with the new facility expected to be comparable in scale to its existing fab in Miaoli County. Construction is scheduled to begin by the end of fiscal 2026 as the company strengthens its AI-driven memory supply capacity.

Adobe (ADBE) -7.58%

Adobe agreed to a $150 million settlement with U.S. regulators to resolve allegations that the company obscured termination fees and made subscription cancellations difficult for consumers. The agreement includes a $75 million civil penalty and $75 million in free services for customers, subject to court approval. Authorities alleged Adobe violated consumer protection rules by failing to clearly disclose fees associated with its “annual paid monthly” plans. Adobe denied wrongdoing but stated it has improved transparency and cancellation processes. Subscriptions represent approximately 97% of Adobe’s revenue, underscoring the significance of the issue for its business model.

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