In today's Taking Stock, Caitlin Kalinowski, OpenAI’s head of hardware, has resigned following concerns over the company’s agreement to deploy its AI models on U.S. Department of Defense classified cloud networks.
South African Market Summary
South African equities declined sharply, with the JSE All Share index falling 2.98% to 116,583.41 and the Top 40 losing 3.02% to 108,597.24, reflecting global risk aversion linked to rising oil prices and escalating Middle East tensions. The South African Reserve Bank indicated it may revise risk scenarios ahead of its 26 March policy meeting as higher energy costs threaten inflation dynamics. Meanwhile, a consortium of manganese producers, including African Rainbow Minerals, plans to bid to develop a new export port at Ngqura, potentially adding 16 million tonnes of manganese export capacity.
European Market Summary
European equities declined sharply, with the STOXX 600 falling 5.5% for the week, marking its steepest weekly decline in nearly a year amid escalating Middle East tensions and weaker U.S. labour market data. Major indices in Frankfurt and Paris recorded their largest weekly losses since April 2025, while Madrid equities experienced their sharpest drop in four years. Market volatility increased, with the STOXX volatility index reaching its highest level since April earlier in the week. Meanwhile, UK house prices rose 1.3% year-on-year in February, although rising mortgage rates reflect concerns that higher energy prices could sustain inflationary pressures.
US Market Summary
Wall Street’s major indices closed lower after weaker-than-expected labour market data and a sharp 12% surge in oil prices driven by escalating Middle East tensions unsettled investor sentiment. U.S. unemployment rose to 4.4%, reflecting labour disruptions linked to healthcare strikes and severe winter weather, raising concerns about slowing economic momentum. The spike in energy prices complicates the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook by increasing inflation risks while growth softens. Investor anxiety increased notably, with the Cboe Volatility Index rising to 29.49, its highest level since April 2022.
Asian Market Summary
Asian markets reflected heightened volatility as South Korea’s Kospi triggered its second circuit breaker in four sessions, plunging more than 8% amid a broader regional sell-off linked to oil prices approaching $120 per barrel. Technology heavyweights led declines, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix falling sharply. In Japan, real wages rose for the first time in 13 months as cooling inflation and the fastest base salary growth in three decades strengthened expectations for further Bank of Japan policy normalisation. Meanwhile, China’s consumer inflation accelerated to 1.3% year-on-year in February, signalling firmer demand and a tentative easing in deflationary pressures.
Commodity Market Summary
Oil prices surged approximately 20% on Monday to their highest level since July 2022 as the escalating U.S.–Israeli conflict with Iran disrupted Middle Eastern energy supplies and heightened concerns over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iraq and Kuwait have begun reducing output, following earlier LNG supply cuts from Qatar, while analysts warn Saudi Arabia and the UAE may also curb production as storage capacity tightens. The conflict raises the risk of sustained global fuel price pressure. Meanwhile, gold declined roughly 2%, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and rising inflation concerns linked to higher energy costs.
Currency Market Summary
Currency markets reflected a pronounced shift towards safe-haven assets as escalating Middle East tensions heightened risk aversion. The U.S. dollar strengthened sharply as rising oil prices and concerns over potential energy supply disruptions prompted investors to seek liquidity. The euro and sterling each declined around 1% in Asian trading, while the Australian dollar and Swiss franc also weakened against the surging greenback. In emerging markets, the South African rand depreciated as global investors reduced risk exposure, reinforcing the dollar’s dominance amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty and concerns around global growth prospects.
African Rainbow Minerals (ARI) -6.39%
African Rainbow Minerals reported resilient interim results for the six months ended 31 December 2025, with headline earnings rising 10% to R1.67 billion and revenue increasing 32% to R8.40 billion, supported by stronger platinum group metals pricing. Basic earnings increased 69% to R2.35 billion, while the group maintained a robust net cash position of R8.46 billion. An interim dividend of R5.00 per share was declared. Operationally, iron ore production declined following Beeshoek Mine being placed on care and maintenance, although Bokoni reserve development continues to support future production growth.
Grindrod (GND) -7.97%
Grindrod reported solid performance for the year ended 31 December 2025, supported by higher port and terminal volumes. Core EBITDA increased 13% to R2.3 billion, while core headline earnings rose 17% to R1.2 billion, with headline earnings per share of 176.5 cents. Port and terminal operations delivered record throughput, with Matola volumes rising 22% to 9.9 million tonnes and MPDC-operated terminals handling 15.2 million tonnes. Cash generated from operations exceeded R2.0 billion, more than doubling year-on-year. The group declared a final and special dividend of 68.2 cents per share as it transitions into a growth-focused phase.
CA Sales (CAA) -1.80%
CA Sales Holdings announced an agreement to acquire a 71.19% stake in Main Street Holdings, the parent company of Sunpac, for an anticipated purchase price of approximately R197.6 million, subject to final earnings adjustments and capped at R208.6 million. The transaction will be funded from internal cash resources and remains subject to regulatory approvals. Sunpac is a South African distributor providing end-to-end category management and route-to-market services for international brands and retailers. The acquisition strengthens CA&S’s capabilities in the growing private and confined label segment while supporting expansion across multinational and regional brand portfolios.
Mantengu (MTU) +8.57%
The JSE has publicly censured Mantengu Limited for breaching disclosure obligations under paragraph 3.9 of the Listings Requirements. The breach relates to the company’s failure to publish a cautionary announcement in June 2023 after becoming aware that confidentiality surrounding a binding offer to acquire a mining subsidiary had been compromised. The information constituted price-sensitive details that could have influenced trading in the company’s securities. The transaction was only formally disclosed in October 2024. The JSE noted that the lapse undermined market transparency and investor confidence, warranting a public censure.
Orion Minerals (ORN) -5.13%
Orion Minerals reported progress across its Northern Cape development projects during the half year ended 31 December 2025. The company secured a US$250 million prepayment facility to support development of the Prieska Copper Zinc Mine, advancing construction planning, shaft dewatering and operational readiness. Optimisation of the Okiep Copper Project continued, incorporating additional exploration data and advancing infrastructure, including a wastewater dam. Orion targets first production by late Q1 2027, with steady-state output of over 30ktpa of copper and 65ktpa of zinc. The interim operating loss narrowed to AUD6.42 million, with improved loss-per-share metrics.
Embraer S.A. (EMBR3) -8.05%
Embraer expects aircraft deliveries to increase by up to 9.4% in 2026 to as many as 255 units, supported by continued global demand for regional and executive jets. Commercial aircraft deliveries are projected at 80–85 units, while business jet deliveries are expected to reach 160–170 units. The outlook implies revenue growth to between $8.2 billion and $8.5 billion, following a record $7.6 billion in 2025. Fourth-quarter revenue rose 15% to $2.65 billion, although core profit declined 8.9% to $298.4 million. The company may also benefit from the reinstatement of zero U.S. tariffs on sector exports.
OpenAI
Caitlin Kalinowski, OpenAI’s head of hardware, has resigned following concerns over the company’s agreement to deploy its AI models on U.S. Department of Defense classified cloud networks. Kalinowski indicated the decision was taken without sufficient governance deliberation, particularly regarding potential surveillance and autonomous weapons risks. OpenAI stated that the agreement includes safeguards and reiterated that its policies prohibit the use of its technology for domestic surveillance or autonomous weapons. The development highlights growing governance scrutiny around the military application of advanced artificial intelligence systems.
Prefer to read the full report offline? Click here to download the full report.
