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Market Commentary

South African Market Summary

The JSE All Share index rose 0.96% to close at 121,114.33, while the Top 40 gained 1.06% to 113,029.68. South African business confidence improved modestly in the first quarter, rising three points to 47, its strongest reading since 2015 excluding the post-pandemic rebound, according to the Rand Merchant Bank/Bureau of Economic Research survey. The improvement reflects a more stable political backdrop, supportive interest rate expectations and favourable currency dynamics, although geopolitical tensions remain a key risk. Separately, financiers are preparing a R2 billion green bond to support water conservation and strategic catchment restoration projects as policymakers emphasise long-term infrastructure resilience.

European Market Summary

European equities rebounded on Wednesday as investor concerns over the immediate spill-over risks of an escalating Middle East conflict eased. The pan-European STOXX 600 rose 1.4%, recovering from a decline of more than 4% from last week’s record high, while Germany’s DAX advanced 1.7%, marking the strongest one-day gain for both indices since May. UK equities stabilised after a two-day sell-off, although housebuilder shares weakened following mixed earnings and leadership changes at Barratt Redrow and Vistry. Separately, eurozone finance ministers warned that Europe faces intensifying demographic pressures, with the regional workforce potentially shrinking by nearly two million people annually by 2040.

US Market Summary

U.S. equities advanced on Wednesday as easing geopolitical concerns supported investor sentiment after reports suggested Iran was open to negotiations and President Donald Trump pledged measures to stabilise oil markets. Technology stocks led gains, with the Nasdaq rising 1.29%, while the S&P 500 remained near its January record close. Market volatility moderated, with the VIX falling roughly 10% to around 21, indicating reduced near-term risk pricing. Energy stocks declined as oil-price fears eased. Meanwhile, economic data remained supportive, with Federal Reserve commentary indicating modest growth, stable employment and rising prices, alongside stronger-than-expected private payroll growth and resilient services sector activity.

Asian Market Summary

Asian equities advanced on Thursday as declining U.S. Treasury yields supported a tentative recovery in global risk appetite despite ongoing Middle East tensions. In China, authorities announced plans to inject 300 billion yuan into state-owned banks through a special treasury bond, aimed at strengthening financial stability and reducing systemic risk. The measures were outlined in the government work report presented at the National People’s Congress. Beijing also set its 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5%–5%, the lowest on record since the early 1990s, reflecting persistent deflationary pressures and external trade tensions. Meanwhile, the fiscal deficit target was maintained at approximately 4% of GDP, signalling continued policy support.

Commodity Market Summary

Oil prices advanced on Thursday as the escalating U.S.–Iran conflict disrupted energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for nearly one-fifth of global oil consumption. Supply pressures intensified after Iraq reduced crude output by approximately 1.5 million barrels per day due to storage and export constraints, while Qatar declared force majeure on liquefied natural gas exports. Shipping through the strait has largely stalled for a fifth consecutive day, heightening concerns around global energy supply. Meanwhile, gold extended gains as investors sought safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainty and a softer U.S. dollar, with bullion prices up roughly 20% year-to-date.

Currency Market Summary

The South African rand recovered modestly on Wednesday following the prior session’s sharp sell-off triggered by escalating Middle East tensions. In global currency markets, the U.S. dollar paused its recent rally, easing from a three-month high to trade near 98.82 against a basket of currencies. The softer dollar provided limited relief to the euro and other major currencies as investors cautiously reassessed geopolitical risks. Market sentiment improved after reports suggested potential diplomatic engagement between Iran and the United States, alongside discussions around restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, helping stabilise currency markets despite continued geopolitical uncertainty.

Local Commentary

Cashbuild (CSB) +4.48%

Cashbuild reported a resilient interim performance for the six months ended 28 December 2025, with revenue rising 3% to R6.3 billion, supported by new store contributions and a 4% increase in transactions. Headline earnings increased 16% to R138.5 million, while the gross margin improved to 25.0%. Basic EPS declined due to a R34.9 million loss on disposal of the Malawi operation. Cash and short-term funds strengthened to R2.1 billion, with net asset value per share at 7,925 cents. The group declared an interim dividend of 393 cents per share, up 21%, while trading in the seven weeks post-period is 8% higher year-on-year.

Woolworths (WHL) +1.38%

Woolworths Holdings reported turnover and concession sales growth of 5.4% to R42.5 billion for the 26 weeks ended 28 December 2025, supported by above-market performance in its Food and apparel businesses. Adjusted profit before tax was broadly stable at R2.0 billion, while headline earnings per share increased 9.6% to 167.4 cents despite margin pressure from investment and promotional activity. Earnings per share declined due to prior-period property sale gains. The group declared an interim dividend of 118 cents per share, up 10.3%, while management remains confident of improved full-year performance despite subdued consumer conditions.

Quilter plc (QLT) -3.37%

Quilter reported strong FY2025 results, with adjusted profit before tax rising 6% to £207 million as revenues increased 5% to £701 million and operating margin improved to 30%. Total assets under management and administration grew 18% to £141.2 billion, supported by record net inflows of £8.7 billion and strong platform growth. Adjusted EPS increased 4% to 11.0 pence, while IFRS profit after tax reached £120 million. The group proposed a final dividend of 4.3 pence per share, taking the annual payout to 6.3 pence (+7%), and announced a £100 million share buyback programme alongside a new shareholder distribution policy.

AfroCentric Investment Corp (ACT) -1.94%

AfroCentric reported a mixed FY2025 performance, with revenue from continuing operations rising 93.9% to R7.3 billion, reflecting strong growth across its healthcare administration and managed care platforms. Despite the topline expansion, the group reported a loss before tax of R531.9 million and a loss from continuing operations of R645.9 million, primarily impacting earnings metrics. Headline earnings improved to R117.1 million (13.92 cents per share). Net asset value declined to 231 cents per share, and no dividend was declared. The results highlight ongoing restructuring pressures despite revenue momentum in the group’s healthcare services portfolio.

South Ocean (SOH) -12.73%

South Ocean Holdings issued a trading statement indicating a significant decline in profitability for the year ended 31 December 2025. Headline earnings per share are expected to decrease by approximately 69.8% to 6.81 cents, compared with 22.56 cents in the prior period, while basic and diluted earnings per share are similarly forecast to fall by around 69.9% to 6.81 cents. The anticipated earnings contraction reflects materially weaker financial performance relative to the previous year. The company expects to release its full-year results on or about 19 March 2026.

International Commentary

Broadcom (AVGO) +1.18%

Broadcom projected strong momentum in artificial intelligence semiconductors, forecasting AI chip revenue to exceed $100 billion next year as demand for custom accelerators accelerates beyond the Nvidia-dominated market. First-quarter revenue rose 29% to $19.31 billion, with adjusted EPS of $2.05 slightly ahead of expectations, while AI-related revenue more than doubled to $8.4 billion. The company guided second-quarter revenue to approximately $22.0 billion, above consensus, and announced a new $10 billion share repurchase programme. Broadcom continues expanding partnerships with major AI developers, including Google, OpenAI and Anthropic, to develop custom processors and AI infrastructure.

Adidas AG (ADS) -4.88%

Adidas shares declined more than 7% after the company issued a 2026 operating profit outlook of approximately €2.3 billion, implying a margin below 9% and falling short of market expectations of around 10%. Management attributed the weaker outlook to U.S. tariff pressures, currency headwinds and disruption linked to Middle East conflict. Despite the cautious guidance, the group reported strong 2025 performance, with currency-adjusted sales rising 10% to €24.8 billion and operating profit reaching €2.06 billion. Adidas also extended CEO Bjørn Gulden’s contract to 2030 and proposed a 40% dividend increase to €2.80 per share.

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