MTN Group Expects Strong FY25 Rebound as EPS Swings to Profit on Nigeria and Ghana Momentum

South African Market Summary

The JSE All Share index declined 1.14% to 126,991.00, with the Top 40 down 1.25% to 118,789.66, reflecting softer risk appetite. Manufacturing momentum remained subdued, with the February PMI slipping further below the neutral 50 threshold, signalling ongoing sectoral weakness. In contrast, NAAMSA reported robust new vehicle sales growth of 11.4% year-on-year, exceeding expectations and indicating pockets of consumer resilience. In corporate developments, Rio Tinto approved the restart of the $473 million Zulti South project at Richards Bay Minerals, reinforcing medium-term investment confidence in South Africa’s mineral sands sector.                                                           

European Market Summary

European equities recorded their sharpest one-day decline in three months, with the STOXX 600 falling 1.7% from record levels as escalating U.S.–Israeli conflict with Iran triggered a broad risk-off move. The STOXX volatility index rose to its highest level since mid-November, underscoring heightened uncertainty. While geopolitical risk dominated sentiment, underlying data showed resilience, with euro area manufacturing expanding at its fastest pace in nearly four years. Germany’s HCOB manufacturing PMI improved to 50.9 in February from 49.1, signalling a return to expansion and gradually stabilising industrial conditions.

US Market Summary

U.S. equities closed broadly steady after recovering early losses triggered by U.S.–Israeli air strikes on Iran, as investors rotated selectively into AI-linked, energy and defence stocks. Dip-buying activity stabilised the major indices despite elevated geopolitical risk and cross-asset volatility. In corporate developments, S&P Global indicated it may downgrade PacifiCorp, a Berkshire Hathaway-owned utility, to sub-investment grade following mounting wildfire-related litigation liabilities. An Oregon jury recently awarded $305 million to 16 plaintiffs, materially increasing financial risk and highlighting potential balance sheet and credit rating implications for regulated utilities facing climate-related exposures.

Asian Market Summary

Asia-Pacific equities declined as the Iran conflict entered a fourth day, weighing on regional risk sentiment. Despite softer markets, economic data signalled underlying resilience. South Korea’s manufacturing PMI remained in expansion at 51.1 in February, supported by robust semiconductor demand, marking a third consecutive month of growth. In Japan, fourth-quarter capital expenditure rose 6.5% year-on-year, reinforcing investment support for a fragile recovery ahead of revised GDP data. In Australia, RBA Governor Michele Bullock signalled a potential near-term rate hike if inflation expectations become unanchored, underscoring a data-dependent and vigilant policy stance.

Currency Market Summary

The South African rand weakened as escalating Middle East tensions undermined risk appetite and strengthened the U.S. dollar. Safe-haven flows lifted the dollar index to 98.49 following a 0.9% surge, as the U.S.–Israeli conflict with Iran spilled into neighbouring regions. The euro and yen remained under pressure, reflecting market concern over energy-import dependence and potential inflation spillovers. The euro steadied after a sharp decline of more than 1%, with uncertainty surrounding oil supply routes, particularly via the Strait of Hormuz, remaining a key driver of near-term currency volatility.

Commodity Market Summary

Gold extended gains for a fifth consecutive session as escalating U.S.–Israeli air strikes against Iran drove renewed safe-haven demand amid rising fears of a protracted regional conflict. Oil prices advanced for a third day, with concerns over potential disruptions to Middle East supply intensifying following threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Reports that Iran may restrict transit through the waterway have heightened volatility expectations. Analysts anticipate sustained price strength in the near term, with Bernstein raising its 2026 Brent assumption to $80 per barrel and flagging upside risk toward $120–$150 under an extreme escalation scenario.

Bidvest Group (BVT) +0.38%

Bidvest reported resilient interim results for the six months ended 31 December 2025, with revenue rising 4% to R66.7 billion and trading profit increasing 7% to R6.7 billion. The trading margin expanded 31 basis points to 10.1%, reflecting operational discipline and mix benefits. Cash generation strengthened materially, with R6.1 billion generated from operations (+36%) and free cash flow improving to R3.8 billion. Normalised HEPS increased 5.3% to 1,065.3 cents, while group HEPS rose 2.2%. An interim dividend of 495 cents per share was declared, up 5.3% year-on-year.

MTN Group (MTN) +0.68%

MTN expects a materially improved FY25 performance, supported by operational momentum and a more supportive macro backdrop across key markets. EPS is forecast to rise from a FY24 loss of 531 cents to 1,062–1,168 cents (>300% increase), while HEPS is expected to increase from 98 cents to 1,264–1,284 cents (>1000%). Improved profitability in MTN Nigeria and MTN Ghana underpinned group earnings, partially offset by competitive pressures in South Africa. Lower impairment charges and reduced non-operational losses further supported results. Full-year results are scheduled for release on or about 16 March 2026.

Exxaro Resources (EXX) +3.87%

Exxaro has concluded its R10.6 billion cash acquisition of select manganese assets from Ntsimbintle Holdings and OMH Mauritius, effective 27 February 2026. The transaction secures 100% of Ntsimbintle Mining (holding 50.1% of Tshipi Borwa), 19.99% of Jupiter, 100% of Ntsimbintle Marketing and 9% of Hotazel, positioning Exxaro as a globally significant manganese producer. The deal was funded from existing cash resources and follows the refinancing of R13 billion in corporate facilities. Management will reassess its capital allocation framework, while the Mokala transaction remains subject to outstanding conditions, with a long-stop date of February 2027.

JSE (JSE) +6.38%

JSE delivered record FY25 results, with NPAT rising 16.7% to R1.07 billion and HEPS increasing 17.7% to 1,328.9 cents, supported by higher trading activity and diversified revenue growth. EBITDA advanced 15.5% to R1.38 billion, while ROE improved to 22.0%. Operating income grew 14.2% to R3.5 billion, led by Capital Markets and Post-Trade Services (+18% each). Strong cash generation enabled a 16% increase in the ordinary dividend to 961 cents and a 100-cent special dividend. The balance sheet remains robust, with R3.2 billion in cash and investments at year-end.

Thungela Resources (TGA) +5.35%

Thungela expects to report a FY25 loss per share of R(53.50)–R(56.00), versus FY24 EPS of R26.76, and a headline loss per share of R(5.50)–R(7.50) (FY24: HEPS R25.59), primarily reflecting R8.8 billion in non-cash impairments amid weaker seaborne thermal coal prices and a stronger rand and Australian dollar. Deferred tax assets of R1.1 billion were not recognised, further weighing on earnings. While these non-cash charges materially reduce reported profitability, management indicated that liquidity, cash flow and operational continuity remain unaffected despite softer medium-term coal price assumptions.

Swiss National Bank (SNBN) -0.29%

The Swiss National Bank reported a FY25 profit of 26.1 billion Swiss francs, broadly in line with prior guidance, driven primarily by a 36.3 billion franc valuation gain on its 1,030 metric tonnes of gold as prices rose sharply amid global trade tensions. However, an 8.8 billion franc loss on foreign currency holdings, reflecting adverse translation effects from a 14% appreciation in the Swiss franc versus the U.S. dollar, tempered overall performance. Although profit declined from 80.7 billion francs in 2024, the result enables a maximum dividend of 15 francs per share and a 4 billion franc distribution to government.

Nokia (NOKIA) +4.87%

Nokia expanded its global AI-driven network strategy, deepening partnerships with TIM Brasil and Deutsche Telekom to accelerate 5G and AI-native radio access network (RAN) deployment. The TIM Brasil agreement extends 5G modernisation and AI-enabled services across 14 additional states, covering approximately 42% of Brazil’s population and leveraging Nvidia’s AI-RAN platforms. Separately, collaboration with Deutsche Telekom will advance cloud-based, programmable and automated mobile networks. These developments, alongside Nokia’s recent Telefonica contract and Infinera acquisition, reinforce its strategic pivot toward AI infrastructure and data centre demand to offset softer traditional 5G spending.

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