The Cristal Challenge: where markets teach humility
From a lockdown pastime to one of South Africa’s most talked-about stock-picking contests, the Cristal Challenge proves that markets have a way of keeping everyone grounded.
From a lockdown pastime to one of South Africa’s most talked-about stock-picking contests, the Cristal Challenge proves that markets have a way of keeping everyone grounded.
Think you can outsmart the market? That’s the simple and slightly dangerous question at the heart of the Cristal Challenge.
What began in 2021 as a light-hearted lockdown diversion among 15 friends has grown into one of the country’s most popular stock-picking competitions. Today, it attracts hundreds of entrants from across South Africa, all willing to test their instincts against the unpredictability of the JSE.
The concept is straightforward: choose five JSE-listed shares (priced above 10c, excluding ETFs, unit trusts, commodities and specialised products) and track their performance from 1 February to 31 October. The winner earns ultimate bragging rights and, fittingly, a bottle of Cristal Champagne.
From 15 friends to 494 contenders
Growth has been remarkable. From 15 contestants in 2021, participation climbed to 75 in 2022. This year, a record 494 entrants have joined the challenge.
Our contestants represent every walk of life: restaurateurs, helicopter pilots, boilermakers, surgeons, violinists, dentists, goldsmiths, accountants, auditors, analysts; even a few reverends. Collectively, they selected 190 different counters, highlighting both the diversity of participants and the broad appeal of the JSE.
With 190 available shares, there are more than 2.5 billion possible five-share combinations. Yet certain favourites emerged. This year’s most popular picks are Sibanye (113 selections), Purple Group (89), Naspers (83), Afrimat (72) and Sasol (70).
Simple rules, powerful lessons
Over five years, the rules have evolved but the spirit remains intact.
Returns are calculated on a total return basis, including dividends and corporate actions. Participants may sell a holding to lock in gains or limit losses, although reinvesting cash isn’t permitted (there’s only so much admin one can manage).
The aim isn’t to replicate professional portfolio management. It’s to experience, in real time, the joy and difficulty of forecasting markets over ten months.
Along the way, entrants discover important investing truths:
A lesson in humility
If ever proof were needed, last year delivered it.
Despite five decades in the market, I finished fifth from the bottom, thanks largely to Copper360, which fell 70% and became the worst-performing share of 2025. Ironically, it’s proving a popular pick this year.
Meanwhile, my wife with no investing experience, selected Southern Palladium, which surged nearly 135% to become the best performer of 2025.
Then there were the three joint winners: complete strangers who each chose five gold shares, a unique configuration that secured shared victory.
Markets have a way of humbling experience and rewarding fresh perspective in equal measure.
More than a competition
My Broadband has generously sponsored amazing prizes over the years and winners also get a bottle of Cristal premium champagne at our annual prize giving ceremony.
But the real reward? The conversations. The comparisons. The shared anticipation. The Cristal Challenge has become a community, a reminder that investing is both art and science, discipline and instinct.
Above all, it teaches patience, perspective and the humility to accept that markets will always surprise us.
As the 2026 competition unfolds, we wish every participant good pickings and a celebratory glass of Cristal at the finish line.
