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Market commentary

South Africa

The Top 40 rose 0.36% to close at 103,578.31 points, while the All Share gained 0.45%, finishing at 111,332.74 points. Business confidence improved by five points in Q4, supported by broad-based sectoral gains. Only building contractors weakened, though activity continued to recover. The uplift comes despite softer domestic data, including slower Q3 growth, weak manufacturing and subdued November vehicle sales. The UK is considering extending its unused $1 billion debt guarantee to support South Africa’s green transition as talks continue with the African Development Bank over a $400 million municipals loan. Discussions remain ongoing, according to the UK Foreign Office.

Europe

European equities ended largely steady, with the STOXX 600 up 0.08%, supported by tech strength and a standout 8.9% surge in Inditex after strong November sales. Spain’s IBEX gained 0.7%, while Germany and France slipped slightly. Eurozone PMIs showed a 2.5-year high in business activity, with services offsetting manufacturing weakness. The European Commission’s proposals to use Russian sovereign assets or market borrowing to fund €90 billion in support for Ukraine drew mixed reactions, with ECB President Christine Lagarde warning of significant legal and financial complexity.

United States

US equities advanced as investors maintained expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, though Microsoft’s share decline limited gains. Services activity held broadly stable at 52.6 and private payrolls unexpectedly fell, increasing reliance on non-government data ahead of delayed official releases. Microsoft dropped 2.5% following conflicting reports on AI sales quotas, while energy outperformed on firmer oil prices. Markets also reacted to speculation that Kevin Hassett, seen as favouring aggressive cuts, may replace Jerome Powell, heightening debate over the Fed’s 2025 policy trajectory.

Asia

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed as US data supported hopes for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut. China is expected to maintain its 5% growth target for 2025, implying ongoing fiscal and monetary support amid property-sector weakness, soft consumption and overcapacity concerns. The target forms part of efforts to anchor the next five-year plan. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighted uncertainty around Japan’s neutral interest rate, noting the difficulty of narrowing estimates. Policymakers intend to refine their assessment before offering more transparency on future rate paths.

Commodities

Oil prices edged higher after Ukrainian attacks on the Druzhba pipeline raised supply concerns, though fundamental oversupply limited gains. Peace discussions between the US and Russia produced no breakthrough, dampening expectations of restored flows. Fitch cut its 2025–2027 oil price assumptions, citing supply growth exceeding demand. Gold held steady as weak US payrolls reinforced expectations of a Fed rate cut, while silver reached a fresh record high. Pipeline operators later confirmed uninterrupted flows despite the attack, reducing immediate fears of physical disruption.

Currencies

The rand held steady after the latest PMI release, while global attention remained on US data ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The dollar softened after weaker economic indicators strengthened expectations of a rate cut, lifting the yen and driving the euro to a seven-week high. Speculation that Kevin Hassett could replace Jerome Powell has raised concern that aggressive cuts may follow, potentially pressuring the dollar. The dollar index traded near a five-week low at 98.919, extending a near 9% decline for the year.

Local commentary

Nedbank Group (NED) +1.02%

Nedbank delivered a steady pre-close update for the ten months to October 2025, with headline earnings tracking in line with expectations, supported by higher net interest income, firmer non-interest revenue, lower impairments and disciplined cost control. Lending momentum improved across CIB, BCB and PPB, while deposits continued to outpace loans, although the net interest margin eased slightly on lower rates. Credit losses strengthened to below the midpoint of the through-the-cycle range, and NIR grew below mid-single digits amid solid trading and insurance performance. Expenses moderated versus the first half, and capital and liquidity metrics remained robust, enabling continued share repurchases. Excluding the Transnet settlement, Nedbank expects flat-to-low underlying DHEPS growth and an ROE of 15% or above for FY2025.

Sabvest Capital Limited (SBP) -0.09%

Sabvest Capital issued a trading statement indicating strong expected performance for the twelve months ending 31 December 2025. The group anticipates net asset value per share to rise between 18% and 25%, to a range of 15 591–16 516 cents, compared with 13 213 cents in the prior year. Dividends per share are projected to increase by 19% to 24%, reaching 125–130 cents versus 105 cents previously. Management noted that the estimates have not been reviewed by external auditors, with full-year results scheduled for release in mid- to late March 2026. The update signals continued value creation across Sabcap’s portfolio and sustained growth in underlying intrinsic value.

Raubex Group Limited (RBX) +2.50%

Raubex has issued a cautionary announcement confirming it is assessing the potential disposal of all or part of its shareholding in Bauba Resources, following earlier indications in its FY2026 interim results that the business’s long-term strategic direction was under review. A transaction adviser has been appointed to evaluate available options, though discussions remain preliminary and there is no assurance that a transaction will proceed or what its terms may be. The company noted that, should the process advance, it could have a material impact on Raubex’s share price. Shareholders are therefore advised to exercise caution when trading in the company’s securities pending further updates.

International commentary

Salesforce Inc. (CRM) +1.71%

Salesforce raised its fiscal 2026 revenue and adjusted profit guidance as accelerating adoption of its AI agent platform, Agentforce, continues to drive growth. Annual recurring revenue for Agentforce and Data 360 reached nearly $1.4 billion, up 114% year-on-year, with Agentforce alone surpassing $500 million in the third quarter. Management highlighted strong enterprise demand for autonomous AI tools that streamline workflows and improve operational efficiency, helping convert early experimenters into committed buyers. The updated outlook includes revenue of $41.45–$41.55 billion and adjusted EPS of $11.75–$11.77. While third-quarter revenue of $10.26 billion was marginally below expectations, the upgraded guidance underscores growing confidence in Salesforce’s AI-driven pipeline.

Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) +2.05%

Snowflake forecast fourth-quarter product revenue of $1.19–$1.20 billion, slightly ahead of consensus but below elevated investor expectations, prompting an 8% decline in after-hours trading. Despite strong year-to-date share gains, the 27% growth outlook fell short of hopes for 30%-plus momentum, though analysts expect this to materialise in the following quarter. The company strengthened its AI ecosystem through a $200 million multi-year partnership with Anthropic, deeper collaboration with Accenture, and expanded integrations with AWS after surpassing $2 billion in marketplace sales. Snowflake is also working with Google’s Gemini to embed advanced language models directly into its platform. Quarterly revenue reached $1.21 billion, topping analyst forecasts and underscoring sustained demand for AI-enabled cloud analytics.

Intel Corporation (INTC) +0.67%

Intel has decided to retain its networking and communications unit, NEX, following a strategic review that assessed potential divestment options. The company cited the benefits of maintaining tighter integration across silicon, software and systems, supporting its offerings in AI, data centre and edge computing. The decision comes after Intel strengthened its balance sheet through major investments, including $8.9 billion from the US government, $2 billion from SoftBank and $5 billion from Nvidia. Management noted that these inflows have significantly improved its cash position. Intel had previously considered a spin-out of NEX as part of efforts to streamline non-core operations. Shares ticked 0.3% lower in extended trading after a modest gain during the regular session.

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