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market commentary

South Africa

South African equities weakened, with the Top 40 down 1.13% at 103,207.25 and the All Share 0.99% lower at 110,836.89. Third-quarter GDP grew 0.5% q/q, in line with forecasts but slower than the revised 0.9% in the previous quarter, although fixed investment rose 1.6% after a year of stagnation. Year-on-year growth reached 2.1%. Improved fiscal discipline and a lower inflation target continue to attract flows into local assets. Corporate news was mixed, as Traxtion announced a R3.4 billion rail investment while Merafe advanced retrenchment plans at two ferrochrome smelters locally.

Europe

European equities were directionless, with the STOXX 600 ending flat as investors remained cautious after Monday’s losses. Bayer surged more than 12% to a near two-year high after U.S. authorities backed its bid to limit Roundup cancer lawsuits, providing a notable highlight. Euro-zone inflation unexpectedly ticked higher, curbing hopes for ECB rate cuts. Political focus stayed on talks in Moscow between Russian officials and U.S. envoys over Ukraine. Ireland’s services PMI rose to 58.5 in November, signalling its fastest expansion since 2022 and reflecting stronger activity and rising new business.

United States

U.S. equities logged a sixth gain in seven sessions, supported by renewed expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week. Technology shares outperformed meaningfully, while Boeing jumped 10.1% on stronger delivery guidance for its 737 and 787 jets, adding materially to the Dow and lifting S&P industrials. Recent data have pointed to a gradually cooling economy, but Fed officials’ comments have driven market pricing towards a December cut. Futures now imply an 89% probability of a 25 basis point move, ahead of Friday’s key PCE inflation release.

Asia

Asia-Pacific markets were mixed as investors digested Wall Street’s tech-led rebound and a sharp cryptocurrency rally. Revised South Korean data showed third-quarter GDP expanding 1.8% year on year, slightly above the initial 1.7% estimate. Australia’s economy grew 2.1% y/y, its strongest pace since late 2023 but marginally below expectations. China’s services activity cooled, with the RatingDog China General Services PMI slipping to 52.1, the weakest reading in five months, while the official services PMI dropped to 49.5, falling back into contraction territory and underscoring patchy domestic demand momentum across China.

Commodities

Oil prices fell for a second consecutive session as traders weighed the possibility that Russia–U.S. peace discussions on Ukraine could eventually unlock additional supply, even though no breakthrough was achieved. Geopolitical risks remain elevated, with Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian export infrastructure and repairs under way at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s facilities. Rising U.S. inventories added to surplus concerns, as API data showed crude, gasoline and distillate stocks all increasing last week. Gold retreated by more than 1% on profit-taking as traders locked in gains after reaching a six-week high.

Currencies

The rand traded flat after data confirmed softer South African GDP growth in the third quarter, with markets already positioned for a modest domestic recovery. The dollar was steady as investors looked through noise and focused on prospects for U.S. rate cuts, with expectations building for around 90 basis points of easing before the end of 2026. Sentiment towards sterling weakened, with the pound slipping against the euro as firmer euro-zone inflation reinforced views that ECB easing is complete while the Bank of England is expected to cut in December.

local commentary

FirstRand Limited (FSR) +1.65%

FirstRand reported that operational performance for the six months to 31 December 2025 is tracking in line with expectations, supported by moderating inflation, lower interest rates and gradually improving household affordability. Net interest income is benefiting from stronger advances growth across South Africa, broader Africa and the UK, alongside resilient deposit franchises and a protected endowment. Non-interest revenue is trending higher on solid insurance momentum, a rebound in global markets and further private-equity realisations. Credit performance remains at the lower end of through-the-cycle ranges. Full-year guidance for high mid-teens earnings growth and an improving ROE of 18%–22% remains unchanged.

Resilient REIT Limited (RES) -0.38%

Resilient reported solid trading ahead of its December 2025 year-end, supported by 5.6% retail sales growth, stronger leasing spreads and a low 1.9% vacancy rate. Rental renewals averaged 2.2% higher, while new leases achieved a 24.6% uplift. The group continues to advance major developments, including extensions at Irene Village Mall and Tzaneen Lifestyle Centre. Energy investments remain a key driver, with solar capacity rising to 88MWp and battery storage to 20.7MWh. Strong performance in Spain and France further supported earnings. The Board now expects FY2025 distribution growth of at least 10%, underpinned by property resilience, lower rates and improved guidance from Lighthouse.

Shaftesbury Capital PLC (SHC) -0.65%

Shaftesbury Capital reported another period of strong operational momentum across its West End portfolio for the four months to October 2025. Leasing activity remained robust, with 367 transactions secured year-to-date, delivering £30.2 million of new contracted rent, 9% above December 2024 ERV and 14% ahead of prior passing rents. Occupancy remains high, with only 2.6% of ERV available and a further 1.5% under offer. Footfall and sales growth continue to strengthen across Covent Garden, Soho, Carnaby Street and Chinatown, supported by new flagship openings and an active refurbishment pipeline. With a strong balance sheet, £80 million in targeted acquisitions and substantial liquidity, management remains confident in its medium-term targets.

Araxi Limited (AXX) +3.03%

Araxi delivered strong interim results for the six months to 30 September 2025, supported by rising demand across its product and service lines. The Payments division performed particularly well, with revenue up 23.3% and EBITDA rising 33.1%, underpinned by significant terminal orders and a 15% expansion of the terminal estate to 446,000 units. New software contracts and a strengthening pipeline in both divisions point to firmer growth in the second half. Despite prior-period restatements affecting comparability, normalised EPS and HEPS increased 59% and 58%, respectively. The Group retains a solid financial position, with R303 million in cash available to support further expansion.

Merafe Resources Limited (MRF) +0.93%

Merafe announced that recent tariff discussions with Eskom have yielded a proposal that supports the ongoing operation of the Lion smelter but does not offer a sustainable solution for the long-term viability of the Boshoek and Wonderkop smelters. As a result, the Glencore–Merafe Chrome Venture has issued conditional retrenchment and voluntary severance notices effective 1 December 2025, which will become binding on 9 December if no viable government-backed solution emerges. In that event, Boshoek and Wonderkop will be placed on care and maintenance from 1 January 2026. Merafe emphasised its continued engagement with stakeholders to preserve operational sustainability.

international commentary

Hugo Boss AG (BOSS) +2.14%

Hugo Boss outlined a strategic overhaul that will temporarily weigh on performance, guiding 2026 EBIT to €300–350 million and forecasting mid- to high-single-digit currency-adjusted sales declines before a return to growth in 2027. The update follows last month’s downward-revised 2025 outlook, with sales expected at €4.2–4.4 billion and operating profit of €380–440 million amid rising macroeconomic uncertainty and adverse currency movements. Recent quarterly sales also missed expectations due to weaker demand in Britain and China and pressure from a softer dollar. Management emphasised that the brand and channel realignment is intentional to strengthen long-term positioning, with a detailed 2026 outlook due on 10 March alongside full-year 2025 results.

CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (CRWD) +2.46%

CrowdStrike forecast fourth-quarter revenue of $1.29–$1.30 billion, comfortably ahead of the $1.22 billion consensus, as accelerating adoption of AI-enhanced security tools strengthens demand across its Falcon platform. Recent AI-driven releases, including automated detection and triage features, have supported a broader strategy to consolidate security operations and improve efficiency for enterprise clients. Management also raised full-year revenue guidance to $4.80–$4.81 billion following sustained momentum and a 22% year-on-year rise in third-quarter revenue to $1.23 billion. Analysts note that the upgraded outlook reflects disciplined margin expansion and effective product scaling. The rebound marks a notable recovery after last year’s software-update incident, with shares rising around 1% in after-hours trade.

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